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I myself was going to put off getting back into Silver until February

But it's only a week away and as a buyer of 3SIL which gives me leverage, the dip we saw Monday was a good buying opportunity and I'm a trader.

Never easy getting the absolute floor, but if you think interest rates are going to roll over at some stage in 2024 and that we will see USD debt levels rise and the Dollar index fall then positioning in PM producers that have sunk their major investment spend in 2023 isn't a bad idea imo as you should get the leverage of multiple push factors as each plays out across the year ahead

Been a good share to trade, but I'm starting to add long only positions here now at these levels.

GLA.

After a period of major investment in the new Juanicipio mine, the company’s spending will naturally decrease in 2024 as those one off costs of bringing Juanicipio into production aren't repeated.

Cost pressures will ease and management is targeting further savings.

The analysts expect Fresnillo’s pre-tax profit to rise from $356m in 2023 to $603m in 2024 – an increase of 69%.

looks good value to me at current levels.

Especially with Silver coming off a long downtrend and if that floor was put in on Monday then present entry looks good to me.

GLA.

All the Silver futures traders starting to get all revved up since Monday as looks like a floor got put in.

3SIL up 10% since.

Back in today after watching and waiting

When new management come in its usually not a bad idea to kitchen sink any bad news and clear the decks allowing the new strategy and cost efficiencies to be put into place.

Happy to be adding down here.

Far better market update than I had expected and far better update than the market had expected and clearly had been pricing in worse over the past few months.

FRES can now start the correction to the upside as we move through 2024.

I predict an extremely volatile February

My start of 2024 pick of THR quickly ran up 50%

But has pulled back over the last few days as spot uranium prices have pulled back abit.

Uranium was my start of year 'top pick commodity' to move up quickly BUT it all hinges on the announcement due from kazatomprom at start of February on whether they will be able to deliver on their production commitments for 2024.

If they can then that might take some air out of the bubble as they are the biggest producer.

If they tell the market they are looking like being unable to meet their supply commitments then the uranium price could really go mental and it will filter down to those small cap uranium stocks that have been out in the wilderness for years as suddenly everyone will want a piece and I wouldn't be surprised to see some new small cap uranium stocks IPO's appearing and flying out the traps on nothing but a prospective licence as the sector would go full on bull mode.

I won't be putting all my eggs in a uranium basket however regardless.... as expect volatile markets throughout 2024 due to global unrest, elections and a US debt burden that's starting to get out of hand.

If the next few inflation prints show reductions then nterest rates will roll over.

If the Dollar starts to weaken then all commodities will rally.

On a longer time frame.. I really do see a huge commodities super cycle similar to that seen in 2011 playing out over the next few years.

I intend buying up silver from feb/March this year.

Gold will yo yo, but won't be surprised to see it finish 2024 around $2300 if nothing dramatic happens.

If we see further geo politic instability and war spreading outside of the present conflict zones then gold could really take off.

As ever, stay close the the macros, and on AIM stay nimble.

If Gold does really fly, then expect all the speculative juniors to pretty much all do well as hot money will cycle from one junior play to another on expectations of news and updates .

If you can position ahead of the herd, that's where big money can be made.

I might do a Top 10 of Goldies to keep an eye on (more for my own reference)

I also expect copper to do really well in 2025 so probably want to be positioned ahead of that longer term trend by getting some exposure this year, but should be plenty of short term trading opportunities.

Oil & Gas ... when it comes to alot of AIM small cap exploration comps.... its often better to travel than to arrive.. but if you get ones that are really beaten up we've seen how quickly they can shoot back up on good news.

As ever.... keep some dry powder for any market sell offs if the SHTF. :-))

Happy Birthday Mischief

I'm sure the EEE updates landing over the past 12 months has provided a few quid for the beer kitty!!

Here's to landing a few more multibaggers over the next year ahead.

As we've seen recently some shares that appear really down on their luck can be the ones that suddenly rip once the news turns positive.

Dai,

You have kinda answered your own question there.

Take a look at RKH for a similar scenario but a potentially far greater upside from a much larger resource. (If they can raise their 30% of the funding) which isn't much more than what DELT need to raise, but the economics work much better givent the resource size.

Broker target 871p (presently 11p)

“” Canaccord’s Linsay Wheeler was less restrained. The analyst repeated a ‘buy’ recommendation for Rockhopper and upped her price target from 593p to 871p a share.

“Rockhopper’s resource update is very encouraging and we expect the market to react positively to the materially increased scope of the Sea Lion project,” the Canaccord analyst told clients.

Wheeler added: “Using an oil price of US$87.50/barrel alongside a 12% discount rate, we estimate Rockhopper’s NAV to be 871p/share. Our valuation hinges on our estimate of the group’s current cash position plus our estimate of the value of the Sea Lion Main Complex, using the updated mid-case recoverable resources of 325 million barrels, risked at 75% ahead of a formal Competent Person’s audit.”

RNS update yesterday - going fairly below the radar in this market imo.

This is one share that could really run if it starts to get everything together and get the media hype.it had back in the day.

52 wk high of 10.45p

Down to 3.75p at present..

Raised 2.5m last July at 6p

Looks like drilling is underway and results might not be that far away.

Tro,

Lex had a great run up until May last year.

Not been following to closely for a long while.

Haven't they got some massive multimillion oz gold exploration target in South Africa alongside the USA based stuff.

Need to do some catching up on what is expected and when?

SOLG & FRES

Both flirting with putting in a new 52WK low.

Watching and waiting from the sidelines on both.

Results on Wednesday for FRES

Horult

I'd probably put VAST into the same risk category as COPL

Both highly volatile, but if you can catch them right on the chart they can move fast (both ways though)

COPL - it's trying to push on from the recent low.

About as volatile as they come.

Not for widows and orphans!

ORR , really flying now.

All these back to back positive updates really doing wonders for the SP.

EEE

SYN

RKH

VAST

All moving up on their RNS updates

With small AIM comps, news really is the lifeblood to drive the SP positively.

Look at the cracking run ORR has had over the past two months.

All looked lost..... and then suddenly they enter a positive 'news rich period' and it all reverses quickly and bounces around 300%+

All pretty bearish out there in the markets atm

All the gains that the FTSE100 had made since October 23 have almost been wiped in the past two weeks markets activity

The AIM all share has had a pretty good run from October 23 and whilst it looks like it topped out at the turn of the year its still holding up ok for now. Although its still a long way off from its Sept 2021 peak.

Yeah tro, just before you posted that I actually stuck a post up over there around when I think it could be a good time to get into the Leveraged Silver plays.

P.s

FRES next trading statement will be >> next Wednesday.

Will it be a reversal of poor recent results.?

Or the very last opportunity to 'kitchen sink' all the bad news before the new growth strategy is put into place by the recent new recruits?

3SIL (which is NOT a physical ETF) is a 3 x leverage on the futures price.

This has been a good one to buy on the recent silver futures lows Oct '22 / March '23 / Oct '22 /

End of feb/ start March 24???

Each time snatching those low points has returned very healthy 50-70% short term gains on the leveraged futures price reversal.

Anyway.... I wonder what might be looking like taking place with interest rates from March onwards??

GLA

Just over a year ago now I posted something up about how the uranium miners were selling to the offtakers & traders at less than the cost of production and therefore all loss making.

I'm not taking credit in anyway, as I'd just watched some sector analysis by Rick Rule who made a bullish call from a long way out that we were about to enter a uranium super cycle.

His summary was that despite there being surplus stocks of uranium at that time, these would evaporate and the demand would then start to out strip supply.

Rick's thesis (which has been proven to be correct)

Was that either the spot price of Uranium was going to have to rise exponentially so that the miners could not only go from loss making to break even or small break even positions, but the price would need to rise so that the miners not only make a handsome profit, but that they make enough to be able to re-invest into bringing on new supplies and that the price would need to keep rising to a level where those resources that were previously uneconomical to mine could be brought into production to meet demand.

I can't say with any degree of accuracy when this kind of supply and demand scenario will start to play out in the other commodities but oil and gas and coal has been so volatile over the past few years and copper is likely to cycle through in the same way uranium has over the past year at some stage.

Lithium has been smashed

Again, it's all cycles, if the recent tanking in spodumine prices results in some 'decision to mine' or mine financing approvals getting pushed back, then the price could then rebound rapidly for those miners who actually have product to sell as the mines that are put on hold take time to ramp up to full production..

It's not always easy to understand what creates certain asset bubbles but it's well worth reminding ourself what the factors are and how asset bubbles are created & move through boom and bust cycles.

Plenty that are on my watch list to buy are still in their downtrends so not going to pull the trigger on a long just yet....

Patience to sit on hands and not buy just yet can work out just like sitting on hands and not selling the ones you want to keep long term..

A bit like cars. :-)).

Go for the Jaaaaaag if you need to scratch that itch Tro, most EV's being sold right now will deprecate heavily with the introduction of solid state batteries around 2028 and their associated 800 mile range that they will usher in, rendering most of the present generation EV's with their 200 mile or so ranges go for scrap in just a few years.

Probably best to just lease an brand new EV if you want one over the next few years as the tech will change so radically by 2028.

In the meantime all those ICE cars that have already done their depreciation look a solid hold and potentially a buy as some classics become more affordable after a couple of years of crazy prices.