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Ha, I forgot to add a fairly important $2.67M CAN per month! Not just $2.67. makes a bit of a difference! Just these wells alone will see us on a cash basis be hitting our mcap in revenue earnings per annum not accounting for any PE or cash in the bank. Once the news is out on those by the end of the summer, I would already expect us to be trading around mid 30's all being well with double that by the end of the 12 months that follow if they keep rolling out wells. Now if they can simultaneously push forward Canada and a farm down of the Italian asset, we should see a great 18 months. Sadly ENI is out the picture as they were being forced to GIVE UP licenses rather than take more on under anti-competitive laws.
hmm, is a big one and interesting that it's ended up with a further gain up to 8% by the end of the day! I'm guessing they must have been accumulating buys for this sell! No reason why it can't be a major investor just because it doesn't tally up with their holding, could just as easily be a partial disposal. Certainly does seem to be a sell. Interesting if this has been depressing the price for a while. Good RNS today and a positive impact on the market, the big sell just adds a little intrigue. Clarified on the media that they won't seem to be over extracting these wells contrary to how I read the earlier RNS, Keith stated production at around 150bpd. So in the presentation I first saw, they quoted production 'up to' 500bpd possible, although likely to only take 100bpd. Now that seems revised to 150bpd. So we could have 6 wells online by the end of the summer. That's $2.67 canadian per month revenue. With even a small PE of 4 that would equate to the very least a doubling of current mcap with only 6 wells! Only another 94 to go :) This seems like a nice predictable earner if the wells keep coming online at a similar level of flow and reserves.
Excuse me for a little re-post to bring my summary back to the top and feel free to add to it.. Todays RNS is listing 296bpd front he 100bpd I invested upon, if we see that in other wells we have a very good opportunity with a very low risk for an oilie here! Key points: - Very low mcap only reflecting cash in bank (of which only €5M promised for Italian seismics) of £23M (CIB £20M) - Well experienced oily on AIM since 1995 and under new strong management with excellent non-execs. - Currently low volume producing in North Sea at 20bpd which they're selling the license to sensible offers. - Great short term asset in Canada in proven wells from the 1960's to 1980's that they are opening up again. Target of 500bpd by end of next year with profit of $35pb. - They have about 100 wells in their license they can open up with each capable of up to 500bpd although they will only take 100bpd to keep its longevity. They have proven 100bpd in the test drills happening literally right now and looking to be announced next week (2nd week May 2014). Apache is the largest local operator currently in the area and they are seeing around 25bpd from their wells. They were pretty surprised apparently to see NOP's test drill hitting 100bpd which I think will be formally announced next week. - Oil is proven to have resaturated wells and also has pressure in addition to the 'nodding donkey' pumps they'll use. Also technology advances now mean they can extract 95% of resources rather than 75-80%. Also much more profitable with advances in water siphoning technology rather than separating at processing point, can be done at well. - Italy has a HUGE 450barrel risked opportunity and the 3D looked incredible! However they warned that Italy is a slow place to move forward, but massive one. With around 100 wells possible, theres some numbers there to start looking interesting. Once canada revenue is on-stream and proven there will be serious gains to be had. If it all comes off, in 3 years we could have 25 wells producing 100bpd (which they said could yield up to 500 in their opinion, but they don't want to over pump and deplete the resource unnecessarily early) which is 2,500 bpd with an average profit of $35 per barrel. That's just under $31M a year revenue and a quarter of what's possible longer term. If they reached those 100 wells on those levels we would see $120M annual profit before other investments and in this sector you should be talking about a $1BN company with the lifespan of these wells in excess of 20 years. And that's not even taking account Italy's assets which could be worth another $4bn. They no doubt will farm this out to provide shareholder value and doubt they will be able to operate and produce if they get a find, it's big one. Great 18-36 month investment and well beyond.
sorry, I was referring to Mosman on the last! Good share with too much Pump too quick! Fine for a short trade, but I'd rather it had had a slow and steady up to the drill as an investor. I don't believe in Mosman raise today either, it will still offer another lower entry again IMO (I'm holding out for a sub 9p Buy). There are a lot of disillusioned people who are pretending they think 'it's a Buy all the way', who will run for cover when it hits top end of 13 (serious resistance) and down it will come again. All IMO, if I'm wrong I'm happy, already made a profit there. Mosmans a good trade (with small punt on drill), this is in my investment pile.
No need to thank me although I appreciate the sentiment. I'll no more accept thanks for a rise than I will cover your losses if it goes down! :|) This is still very much under the radar at least on this bulletin board, imagine if it got the coverage Mosman got recently. Trouble with that is too much exposure too quickly ends up in what happened last two weeks with a huge sentiment pump followed by the inevitable dump. Trouble with that is suddenly you have a lot of unhappy people running for cover and it can kill a share to small investors for a long time. Sentiment is oh so important in AIM. For NOP, a nice quiet build with a few nods in the right direction to a few is preferable. Slow and steady gains all the way although I would expect the end result of todays RNS to be in excess of 10% at least. This is good news and it will only get built on during the course of the summer.
I think it was pretty good, barrels per day 3x what Keith had intimated to the investors a couple of weeks back in London for the test drills, and I invested after seeing him speak there. So I'm very pleased with today. Mikegit, patience is all that is required here, this was never going to fly up overnight and we're still early in on the curve back up. I'm very pleased with my entry price here.
hmm, it certainly would be a good time. Is this a big presentation? Where is it? Who's the audience? ta
I'm expecting an RNS within the next week confirming 100bpd from the test drill in Canada. That should make a few people take notice when they look at potential for up to 100 wells here.It will also consolidate some interest from investor presentation and news before people stop checking on NOP and moving on. Key to a little momentum is building on it and not letting it die off. Come on Keith :)
Hi Elj, what's your query on this trade? A very small ECN (automated simultaneous buy and sell matched via computer) trade denoted by the A. O is ordinary market maker deals. Cheers
typo
:) Well, no doubting that Italy is not necessarily easy to obtain permits for, but we stand a better chance now than ever with their economy where it is./ Can you imagine tracking even being on the agenda in the UK during the North Sea boom time? No oil source will ever go undeveloped long term and in Italy it's a case of local resistance against National will. I know which will probably win in the long term. I just found this which is another reserve, but seems to highlight the case in point reasonably well. http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Can-Italy-Double-Its-Oil-Production.html
Well, managed to bait of re-arranging this morning and although it's only small, I now have my stake in NOP. Looking forward to holding this for a while. Sound opportunity, and I hope Keith if you're reading this you make the effort to go out and present into investors at every opportunity. It's a hassle, but you need to get out and sell NOP to awaken people to the fact the company is changing as has an exciting opportunity in Canada and longer term in Italy. Spending some of that cash in the bank on a professional PR firm to get some marketing out there (not just for RNS formation etc) will easily be a sound investment and strongly suggest you do that. Getting a farm down on Italy should be a priority for you in the short term to add some cash into the balance sheet. This will give the SP a shot in the arm as will personal investment in the company and unleashing the vast capital from the North Sea business ;) All cash on the sheet looks good. No need to dilute here.
That's really not unusual, this question comes up daily on LSE. The software just works it out based on current price, and trade is never marked as a buy or sell by the exchange itself, just shares and price of execution, LSE's software then works out the likely type of transaction.
Hi optimumfx, my background is an investor only, and have learned oily's only through that. Mosman and Tower my other two currently. All my info below is directly from Keith at the Proactive presentation in Mayfair on Thursday and research since. He quoted $35pb as the average profit for this acreage taking all costs into account. I liked him, and I liked the way he came across. I like stocks like this, although I wouldn't put it in my usual pile of AIM trading stocks, but one in my investment pile. I'm at the very start of my knowledge with NOP and looking forward to being here from what I can see has a good chance of being bottom of the hill in the post-Netherlands era.
I need to add to the below they have full 3D seismic for the whole acreage so they can be pretty picky about where they go first and how they go in to each well.
Key points: - Very low mcap only reflecting cash in bank (of which only €5M promised for Italian seismics) of £23M (CIB £20M) - Well experienced oily on AIM since 1995 and under new strong management with excellent non-execs. - Currently low volume producing in North Sea at 20bpd which they're selling the license to sensible offers. - Great short term asset in Canada in proven wells from the 1960's to 1980's that they are opening up again. Target of 500bpd by end of next year with profit of $35pb. - They have about 100 wells in their license they can open up with each capable of up to 500bpd although they will only take 100bpd to keep its longevity. They have proven 100bpd in the test drills happening literally right now and looking to be announced next week (2nd week May 2014). Apache is the largest local operator currently in the area and they are seeing around 25bpd from their wells. They were pretty surprised apparently to see NOP's test drill hitting 100bpd which I think will be formally announced next week. - Oil is proven to have resaturated wells and also has pressure in addition to the 'nodding donkey' pumps they'll use. Also technology advances now mean they can extract 95% of resources rather than 75-80%. Also much more profitable with advances in water siphoning technology rather than separating at processing point, can be done at well. - Italy has a HUGE 450barrel risked opportunity and the 3D looked incredible! However they warned that Italy is a slow place to move forward, but massive one. With around 100 wells possible, theres some numbers there to start looking interesting. Once canada revenue is on-stream and proven there will be serious gains to be had. If it all comes off, in 3 years we could have 25 wells producing 100bpd (which they said could yield up to 500 in their opinion, but they don't want to over pump and deplete the resource unnecessarily early) which is 2,500 bpd with an average profit of $35 per barrel. That's just under $31M a year revenue and a quarter of what's possible longer term. If they reached those 100 wells on those levels we would see $120M annual profit before other investments and in this sector you should be talking about a $1BN company with the lifespan of these wells in excess of 20 years. And that's not even taking account Italy's assets which could be worth another $4bn. They no doubt will farm this out to provide shareholder value and doubt they will be able to operate and produce if they get a find, it's big one. Great 18-36 month investment and well beyond.
I have a couple of questions that I think will be passed onto Keith, but maybe you know the answers with your history here. - Who completed the Canada seismics' and who were you in competition on the licenses with? - The follow on from that is likely to be; Why did that party not take the license forward in your opinion and is a case of you seeing value where others haven’t or that locals might know something you don’t? I think the second is probably obvious with the Apache quote, but I'm still curious about the first
Hi Juliande, good to see you here. This looks like an honest stock. One for the SIPP. The North Sea operation is actively for sale and only producing 20bpd. Apache is the largest local operator currently in the area and they are seeing around 25bpd from their wells. They were pretty surprised apparently to see NOP's test drill hitting 100bpd which I think will be formally announced next week. With around 100 wells possible, theres some numbers there to start looking interesting. Once canada revenue is on-stream and proven there will be serious gains to be had. If it all comes off, in 3 years we could have 25 wells producing 100bpd (which they said could yield up to 500 in their opinion, but they don't want to over pump and deplete the resource unnecessarily early) which is 2,500 bpd with an average profit of $35 per barrel. That's just under $31M a year revenue and a quarter of what's possible longer term. If they reached those 100 wells on those levels we would see $120M annual profit before other investments and in this sector you should be talking about a $1BN company with the lifespan of these wells in excess of 20 years. And that's not even taking account Italy's assets which could be worth another $4bn. They no doubt will farm this out to provide shareholder value and doubt they will be able to operate and produce if they get a find, it's big one. Todays price has no reflection of these assets, and with mcap at the CIB level, what's not to like here?
I'll be coming in here as soon as I can manage my PF a little. Very impressed with last nights presentation and see at least a one bagger in the next 18 months.