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Not sure, I messaged them as I was annoyed this morning.
A couple of weeks ago they wrote to me to say I could trade the shares out of my ISA to buy them in my trading account. This now seems impossible unless they are doing phone trades with the associated costs.
That is my new belief now. World is short oil and there will be a short squeeze over the next few months with prices rising.
I just don't see how the world needed 2mmbpd more oil last year than it needs this year, especially with the SPR draw-downs. It's more likely the storage draws will accelerate over the next few months to the point where the markets notice.
High oil prices are a nice leader into recessions. Perhaps the recession will now be early next year after oil peaking at $120
The "keep investment in the background and don't shout about it" approach is what I have been hoping for. It's best long term for BP shareholders (as it has a lot of value) and for Russia (who need external expertise to optimise their oil extraction).
It's neither the Russian people or BP's fault that Putin is crazy, eventually it will be someone else's turn and I pray it will be someone the world can work with.
It will be a happy day if BP can bolt back on Rosneft after a trade peace treaty is reached. The current expenditure by Russia doesn't seem sustainable (I assume the public can't even buy a new PC) and for Europe it will end up even more painful as sanction costs mount or they end up with a bad winter.
I hold shares in an ii ISA
It looks like I will lose the wrapper (still no options I can see) so I have to decide whether to request certificates and register on Tabys or got With Wood or another of the Poly 'recommended' brokers.
I emailed Wood originally on the same day as the presentation, after a quick reply a couple of days later saying they will get back to me I received an email on Monday.
This is the first part of it:
Dear planit,
we would like to provide you with some preliminary information on the onboarding process that will take place in the coming days. We continue to ask for your patience as we analyze the needs of the diverse shareholder base and try to find a solution for the majority of cases (admittedly, given the timeframe, there may be situations that are outside the scope of the service we can offer - we will endeavor to identify such situations and communicate accordingly as soon as possible).
As you are aware, there are specific circumstances surrounding this project and the adaptation of our standard onboarding package to reflect the complexities of current regulatory & sanctions requirements is underway. We are confident that we will be able to begin distributing the specific onboarding packages to the first set of stockholders this week. We thank you for your patience in the meantime; you will appreciate that the core of our offer is to allow onboarded Polymetal shareholders to:
Open a custody account linked to AIX CSD in Kazakhstan,
transfer your existing position in Polymetal ordinary shares into this account (in cooperation with your current custodian/broker),
place a sell order on AIX CSD (should you wish to reduce the position),
participate in the proposed redomiciliation corporate action in respect of the position held in the custody account on the record date.
In particular, the onboarding package will include:
i) A bespoke Polymetal-related contract - we daresay that the contract will be based on a fairly standard EU brokerage agreement with a simple custody addendum.
ii) KYC form - it will speed up your on-boarding considerably if you begin to collect documentation for the following key areas that will be covered during the KYC process:
Your legal/personal details (name, address, IDs)
Contact details
Ultimate beneficial owners and ownership structure
Legal entity and authorized persons
Tax domicile
Bank accounts
Source of income
(detailed explanation will be included in the KYC form; some of the questions will only apply if you are a legal entity, but please be prepared to provide supporting documentation such as copies of IDs and/or statutory documents from commercial or court registers, possibly certified if you are located outside the EU).
Could you please let us know if you hold the shares as a physical person or as a legal entity – so we know which of the KYC form to send you, once ready?
iii) Guidance to your broker/custodian on the settlement route that the initial transfer of shares must take - both WOOD & Co and your current broker/custodian will need to exchange certain technical information (called SDI or 'standard delivery instructions') about the way in which the shares are cur
If you think they have 2mmbpd just sitting around waiting to be bought you are mistaken.
They have been selling all of it to China for less than whey would get if they were back in the official western markets.
Even if they do have spare capacity somewhere it will take them a while to ramp back up, I doubt it will be able to make an impact this year on the supply/demand balance.
I think now is a good time to load up, recession is pretty much priced into all oil markets but I doubt demand will drop as much as they are expecting to the end of the year. We will see if this is the bottom for the next few weeks.
Y11, I m not sure what your point is apart from oil can go up and down. The timescale you refer to is 4 years but you are looking for a 20% drop in the next few weeks. My point still stands, WTI oil averaged the current equivalent of $120 over the period Oct 07 to Sep 14 so the world could cope with that level then.
If a deal is done it won't immediately result in printing, it will result in a tightening of conditions initially as debt is issued. I agree it could result in a 20% drop for all I know. But the way things are going, short of an economic downturn, the diminishing US and world stores will result in a reckoning when everyone pivots to worrying about it. There seem to be large futures short positions gambling on the downturn which have also put downwards pressure on prices.
Y11
Oil averaged $90 from 2008 to 2014, CPI has gone up 35% since then (food has gone up that in the last couple of years by my shopping bill).
Why do you think the world can't afford $100 oil?
meoryou - I doubt the rest of your predictions would all be true so I wasn't implying the share price should be way higher than your estimate.
My opinion, for what it's worth, is for the price to be all over the place but generally a good discount to where it should be. This is why I like BP, because simple maths says if they keep buying up under-priced shares as fast as possible it is inevitable the value will get concentrated on what's left.
The sector I expect to do well as it's the opposite to where all the money is going. Everyone is calling for less investment, more friction with bringing projects to market and more risk with the outcome.
Suddenly, everyone will realise there is not enough oil, the Saudi's etc can't turn their taps on more and at that point oil will spike very high. When this will be I don't know but most people think the market is 2mmbpd under-supplied for later this year and the releases from the SPR (which should have stopped for now*) have been obfuscating what the market should be reflecting.
This post is already too long but in my crystal ball I see oil prices heading up, perhaps high enough to push the world into recession that is widely predicted at the end of the year. BP oil price could be 600p in November and 400P by Jan next year. Before 2030 I expect it to be over £20.
* It feels like the western governments are trying to quietly help break Russia with low oil prices but they will run out of time [and SPR reserves] shortly.
Meoryou, if the rest of what you say is true, the price of oil will be $100+. In this post inflation world OPEC will want more than $80-$90, they won't be able to resist.
Look at 2014 oil price (pre shale) and then add inflation and see what you end up with.
JohnNth - I think the apparatus regards administration of shares once POLY redoms is slowly falling into place eg. Tabys, brokers, ISA holdings.
Apart from there is still no broker that will allow to keep in ISA and trade.
HL seems to have the option to leave and 'not trade', is anyone contemplating this option to see what happens when they relist in london eventually?
I don't think this is an option for me as I don't have an account there and I doubt they would allow transfer in of POLY
Regarding ii certificates:
I also think it is all accounts.
I emailed them to check my options to not lose my ISA balance.
Their reply led me to believe it was fine to sell the shares in my ISA and buy them back in my trading account before converting to certificates
(between the 31st May vote and 30th July cut-off period ).
IB have been sell only for a year.
ii are still allowing trading up to 30th June. Then you can sell only up to the 7th July
The board have been really clear over the past year, I understand many people might not want to watch all the investor presentations and Q&A's but I would have thought anyone frustrated or angry would have done.
If there was a broker who was willing to allow AIX shares in an ISA they would have mentioned it. I am sure POLY have contacted all the brokers to get help and then listed the few that were willing to engage. Unfortunately those ones were not located in the UK.
Also if they could have found a bank to sponsor their IDR on the LSE they would have done this.
They did not rush and the time it has taken to get to this stage (originally they were looking at autumn 2022) shows the difficulties they have encountered.
I am not in a rush to take my shares out of the ISA wrapper, I emailed II on the 10th, during the presentation but have received no reply as of yet. Wood and Co did reply to me to say they will get back to me once they have a plan.
The more pressure we put on HL, II, IB etc the better as they will respond to a lot of unhappy clients better than a couple of passive ones. It would only take one of them to allow AIX shares on their platform for them to gain a large number of new clients.
We should all be pushing our brokers to come up with a solution that suits us as much as possible. The more that email the better.
I am with ii and I emailed with my thoughts.
The best option for me would be ii continuing to hold the shares during the transfer within the ISA wrapper. When the POLY K shares get listed on the LSE they could transfer the shares over to LSE for trading and issue POLY R paper shares outside the ISA wrapper for me to hold.
Now the chances of this might be about zero but I don't see why we shouldn't ask for it, they might come up with something better than the current options.
So I will wait for as long as I can, in the meantime I appreciate all the help and information others have offered on this thread.
I am not sure why the bad reaction towards Elguiri.
As has been stated before, there is no legal reason why the POLY AIX shares can't be held within a SIPP or ISA.
You can also transfer POLY shares in an ISA wrapper between brokers so you don't lose your preferential tax treatment.
BUT, there are no brokers currently offering an ISA capable of dealing or holding AIX shares (and if there was it would have been stated in the press conference earlier as POLY must have tried to get at least one broker on board).
If anyone can come up with a broker option please disclose it in this thread, in the mean time I suggest everyone contacts their brokers to push for a solution. If one does appear we can all move there.
I will be waiting for a while now hoping something materialises, if not I will transfer the shares out of the ISA to paper certificates or move to a broker that can handle AIX [without the ISA wrapper] if I can find one.
The will they won't they is comical.
I will believe it when I see it but until then will be ignoring all the bull*** comments.
In the mean time please keep buying back shares as fast as possible. I will be the only shareholder by 2041 :)