RE: Serenity6 Mar 2022 23:05
Oil price set to surge further on delays in Iranian talks
Oil price set to surge further on delays in Iranian talks
FILE PHOTO: Models of oil barrels and a pump jack are displayed in front of a rising stock graph and "$100" in this illustration taken February 24, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
06 Mar 2022 08:33PM (Updated: 07 Mar 2022 02:24AM)
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NEW YORK :Oil prices are set to surge further this week due to delays to the conclusion of Iranian nuclear talks and the potential return of Iranian crude to global markets, which are already suffering from Russian supply disruptions, analysts said.
Talks to revive Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers were mired in uncertainty on Sunday following Russia's demands for a U.S. guarantee that the sanctions it faces over the Ukraine conflict will not hurt its trade with Tehran. China has also raised new demands, according to sources.
In response to Russia's demands, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday that the sanctions imposed on Russia over its Ukraine invasion have nothing to do with a potential nuclear deal with Iran.
Last week, the Brent benchmark rose 21per cent to close at $118.11 a barrel and U.S. crude gained 26per cent to close at $115.68, levels not seen 2013 and 2008, respectively, as Russia struggled to sell oil amid fresh sanctions.
"Iran was the only real bearish factor hanging over the market but if now the Iranian deal gets delayed, we could get to tank bottoms a lot quicker especially if Russian barrels remain off the market for long," said Amrita Sen, co-founder of Energy Aspects, a think tank.
Sen said Brent could rise to $125 per barrel on Monday, quickly approaching an all-time high of $147, last seen in 2008.
Analysts from JP Morgan said this week oil could soar to $185 per barrel this year.
“The idea was not to sanction oil and gas because of their essential nature, but oil is getting sanctioned by private actors not wanting to pick it up or ports not wanting to receive it and the longer this goes on the more supply chains are going to buckle,” said Daniel Yergin, author and vice chairman of S&P Global ahead of the CERAWeek conference in Houston.
The United States and European partners are exploring banning Russian oil imports, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday, but stressed the importance of maintaining steady oil supplies globally.
Russia exports around 7 million bpd of oil and refined products or 7per cent of global supply. Some volumes of Kazakhstan's oil exports from Russian ports have also faced complications.
Iran will take several months to restore oil flows even if it reaches a nuclear deal, analysts said.
Eurasia Group said fresh Russian demands could disrupt nuclear talks although it still kept the odds of a deal at 70per cent.
"Russia may intend to use Iran as a route to bypass Western sanctions. A written guarantee allowing Russia to do so is probably well