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Only £3.18 down on the day, and £3.52 of divis in the pipeline, so effectively 34p (0.6%) up. Not bad on a day the market dropped by 1.3%.
I got my first few hundred of these (then RTZ) at about £3 in the late 80s, and have been adding virtually ever since - now, fortunately, all safely tucked away from tax in my ISA and SIPP. Usually stick the divi back in to enjoy compound growth ("the 8th wonder of the world" - Keynes), but RIO is getting close to the 10% of my total portfolio threshold which, with the exception of Berkshire Hathaway, I try not to cross. Also other temptations - eg TGA, JXN, INDV - all offering potentially greater short term upside.
A month before the cash arrives to decide and anyway, as recent history shows us, a lot can happen in a month.
According to Seeking Alpha:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4493460-unilever-hits-the-sweet-spot
According to BearBull at the Inveztors' Chronicle. S/he makes a good point that the directors should have played harder with Wheels Up. But thinks the deal will go through on the nod today. Still a nice profit for me, but the £1.70 BB estimates as fair value would have been a lot nicer.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2022/03/03/how-to-assess-whether-a-takeover-offer-is-good-value/
Not forgetting another $300m share buyback on top of the $300m announced in September and $125m in December [$725m on marcap of $4b in 9 months, plus 5.5% divis]. Screaming buy at anything under $60.
Topping up (again).
According to the prospectus TGA's average cost "freight on board" per tonne of coal was $49.90 in H1 2021 (several $ lower than the SA average). The discounted price TGA receives has since dropped from 26% to 17%, and cost savings have been made, partly offsetting inflationary pressures. TGA made a profit in H1 of 2021 of £50m on sales of 6.6m tonnes at an average price of $61. The H1 results expected "flat FOB cost per export tonne of R830 [$54 at today's exchange rate] for the full year". Wood Mackenzie states "By 2023, global export thermal coal costs are expected to have increased due to input cost inflation, averaging US$59.3/tonne. South African supply is expected to have moved up the curve to average US$60.5/tonne" (from slightly below average in 2021).
The reason it is interesting to know how many bulk carriers are loading at Richard's Bay (23% indirectly owned by TGA) is that it gives some idea as to the disruption on the Transnet rail system, and some outline of how much coal we're actually getting on board, rather than just piling up unsold.
Nearing two years since Anglo American bailed out Sirius investors with their 5.5p offer. At the time I was nursing losses of c£40,000, with an average of ~20p. Stuck all the takeover money and about 100% more into AAL shares at an average of £12ish. AAL now over £37 a share, so much more than wiped out my SXX losses, and with divis since then of over $5 per share on top.
And every 10 AAL shares got us 1 in TGA last year at £1.20, already worth over £6 and due to pay a divi in May of about 40p, the icing on a well iced cake, especially since I ploughed virtually all last year's divi income into TGA, mostly at around £2-£2.50 a share.
Thanks Anglo, for bailing out Sirius, keeping Woodsmith alive and making me a return of well over 4x my total investments in AAL and TGA.
The $1b a year Woodsmith will bring to AAL's bottom line in a couple of years won't make a huge difference to a company already making $20b pa in profit, but will be nice enough.
..
Final of $1.18 plus special of 50c, making $1.68 (last year: 72c).
Basic eps $6.93 ($1.69), total divi and buyback $4.99 per share ($1). ROCE 43% (17%). Underlying EBITDA more than doubled to $20b.
Just amazing.
According to the Sunday Times:
"Rio Tinto is expected to fork out one of the largest-ever annual dividends during the coming week. The approximately £12.1bn payout for shareholders will likely include a special dividend. The forecast from the analyst consensus is that sales topped $65bn in 2021, for pre-tax profits of $39bn and a $10.20 per share dividend. That would be the second-largest ever dividend in the history of the FTSE 100, behind Vodafone's £18bn payout in 2014. The most optimistic analyst anticipates a payout of $11.60 per share."
Significantly more than I paid per share when I bought my first RTZ, as then was, back in the 80s.
Final divi up 11%, NAV up 40% to over £11/share, pre-tax profit up 20% to £356m, eps up 15% to 29p. Pipeline of over 1m sq' under development, mostly pre-let. All very satisfactory.
Like for like sales up 3.5%, "stacked" over 2 years up over 17%. The self-inflicted wound of IFCN China finally lanced giving an exceptional IFRS operating loss of £804m (2020: £2,160m profit). Divi maintained.
Expect the headlines will concentrate on the loss and inflationary dangers, but I remain a cautiously optimistic long term (since 1984) holder.
Eps 27c, profit $190m, net cash $850m ($1.20 per share)5, revenue heading for $1b+ next year, all very positive.
Re possible 20% South African dividend tax, see the original prospectus:
**In the case of UK resident Shareholders, the convention between the UK and South Africa for the avoidance of double taxation and the prevention of fiscal evasion with respect to taxes on income and capital gains, concluded on 4 July 2002, as amended by a protocol signed on 8 November 2010 (the “UK/South Africa Treaty“) provides for lower withholding rates of 5%. **
The 5% rate is, of course, accepted by HMRC to reduce UK tax liability for dividend income for those whose shares aren't in a tax exempt envelope (eg ISA/SIPP).
I have a rule which says I never let one stock get to over 10% of my portfolio (except Berkshire Hathaway, currently nearing 20%). Last time Shell broke over 10% the share price was at about £22 and I reluctantly sliced a fifth of my holding, and then watched the covid crash. Picked up about an extra 50% of my holding at mostly c£13.
As of today's rise, Shell is back at 8.7% of my wad. If we reach £23-24 again, should I trim back again, or regard this as another exception given the times?