Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Costs up, and debt up quite a lot (by a third, to £193m).
Divi up 14%, to 40p, revenue also 14% up, to £451m.
Statutory profits down 17% to £24.7m, adjusted pre-tax profits up 27% to £54m. Which is a bit weird.
I'm holding, and will probably add a few more if it's still under a tenner when my ISA sub becomes available in April.
Dunno, it will presumably be announced with the results next Thursday, not that long to wait.
Meanwhile, it looks as if the Opiant take-over has gone through on the nod, so Senator Warren might as well have saved her breath:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/opiant-pharmaceuticals-announces-cfius-approval-210100542.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAN2btvxL2KvHoIFEqGSXVQPlEzbxKTxrlMYUe4FbgK6qDE4B0yo5eCQvnI1LJo797wTjOcKe7H03qA6Ar9ReUagUjoPkriQTHFK0ewJjMcpkY4DfL66EqaXoyITLNUWPRzXEYvzaLYsRi9M9ZSKfNX9PBzacbJc0Eyp_C9prmd-b
Topped up another 20,800 at 19.902p, don't know why it's not showing on the "buys". Roll on the results.
Up 13% today, on no news and not particularly heavy volume. Not complaining: another ~5p and I'll (finally) be back in profit.
Another 4% up today, on heavy volume, and over 30% ytd, finally getting a little more realistically priced, although still at 0.56pe, and 5% divi. $78/s earnings is almost a joke ven at this price, certainly when it was down in the $30s last month.
I'm ex Pru as well, but topped up on these last year and in 2021 at $26, $30, $38 and $42. One of my largest US holdings, otherwise I'd probably put myself down for even more, as I think anything much under about $60 is outstanding value.
Would not be surprised to see the divi increased to 65c, even 70, in March, which would still be easily covered by fcf.
Roll on next earnings on the 28th.
Thinking of selling the 10% of my holding I bought at 30.07p in April 2020. It's a decent share with a decent divi and decent prospects, but think there are better short/medium prospects for profit in my portfolio - eg Indivior, WPP, ACSO, TGA etc. Will hold the rest and review if/when it hits 60p.
Charts schmartz: the fundamentals of the company are good (it makes money, loads of money), so the shape of its share price graph is completely irrelevant. "past performance is no guarantee" etc - some people have taken profits, some are trading, some holders need rady cash etc etc. But the price will eventually go back up if money contnes to be made, no matter what people skilled in reading the entrails of birds or their horoscopes say.
If you read the Q3 RNS you'll find FY revenue estimated at $890-915m, and operating profits for the FY to be "modestly higher" than 2021's $205m. Adding, in December, that "it expects to achieve a double-digit percentage net revenue compound annual growth rate over the medium term".
My guess is fy revenue nearing $1bn, and profit around $225-250m ($1.60-1.75/s)
Break even for Thungela, sadly, is now a long way north of $50. At 1106R/t, the figure given in December's update, that's around $65 at today's exchange rate. Presumably it will fall again if production is ramped back up to 16m/t pa, as we hope it will.
Still a stonking profit.
Sadly, the UK's is the only economy in the G7 and the G20 which is still smaller than pre-pandemic, largely thanks to a combination of Brexit, and of Johnson and his bunch of incompetent brexiteers.
Sadly, the UK is the only country in the G7 and the G20 which is still smaller than pre-pandemic, largely thanks to a combination of Brexit, and of Johnson and his bunch of incompetent brexiteers.
Not bad at all. Up from the $250/t in h1. Might see the final divi up to £3.50 or more (my average purchase price is about that).
https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Including divis. Not bad at all. Don't suppose it will be quite as good in 2023, but even half the return would be perfectly acceptable
Are all today's RNSs the starting pistol for the takeover? If so it could be a very happy start to the new year.
News on the divi will come with the full year results for ye 31 December 2022, probably in March. Based on the trading update for year to end November, c£3 for the final divi is highly possible, well up on the ~93p final for 2021.
Because of the shambles in the auditing process, they can't decide on a final dividend, so it will be delayed this year.
To top it all, as they're so late in auditing, the shares are due to be suspended from Jan 3, as they'll then be in breach of FCA disclosure rules - for how long, nobody knows. The audit committee was due to meet and report in "early December": that dog didn't bark either.
Sack the chairman.
Thungela is my largest holding, so rather than add more eggs to that basket I decided to op myself down for 2000 of these just now, at £3.065. Hope they do me as well as the TGA shares have over the last 18 months.