focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
@Parkboy - understand your concern, but don't fear. There can be many reasons. Delayed reaction to news ? Reluctance to commit until JORC compliance ? Hesitant until a JV announced ? Concern over a placing ? (there are many many more examples).
I agree that the SP seems subdued given the recent run of positive news. But the progress continues to de-risk and add definition to last year's optimism. The company will be valued by what resources it's sitting on, and that position becomes increasingly clear, but it will take time. For now, enjoy being "in the know" before the larger crowd arrives.
I'm looking forward to Bill's presentation in a week, news from Donovan which should come relatively soon, a decision on the Tailings in about 35 days' time, and the outcome of additional drilling and wider surface samples at a now significantly de-risked Hancook. The next valuation note/analysis should make you happier.
Agree about the steady climb. This accumulation of small daily increases is good. However, I would expect rockets if they publish an RNS confirming any significant progress in clinical efficacy or commercial deals.
Which means we could enjoy both the steady climb AND the sudden leap.
I've never really understood the psychology of someone deramping.
I mean, if they're out then maybe they're trying to bring the price down for a more advantageous purchase. Are they really so egotistical that they think a few half-considered criticisms on one or two BBs will trigger enough of a swing in sentiment ? My goodness, if they are then they could make a lot more money bottling that kind of maniacal self-importance and selling it to the needy. And if the market really IS affected by their critiques, then their arguments will anchor the SP once they're on-board, limiting their fund growth. Either the market does pay attention (handicapped themselves) or it doesn't (utterly wasting their time).
Or perhaps they altruistically want to guide holders whom they see as less well-informed. Ha ha ha. Yeah.
On the other hand if they're already in and deramping, then they're mental.
It's a good question, jwoz, and one I've pondered this morning.
On the 6th May RNS, Bill stated: "The remaining results are expected in the coming weeks and will provide the Company with a greater understanding of the potential of the project and support planning for a follow-up drilling program, which will be commencing shortly after, given that we are now in the optimum field season in the Pilbara region"
The coming weeks was then (I think) assumed to mean May by folks here on LSE.
Today's announcement of the investor presentation obviously ties in nicely with the "coming weeks", and cops off several positive developments over the last month. So I believe it'll be a summary bringing investors and potential investors up to speed on exactly where we are with about 4 or 5 parallel projects, the most eagerly awaited being Hamersley's remaining 36 assay results.
What's actually in the presentation will no doubt become the topic of feverish conjecture until it's out in the open.
But it wouldn't surprise me if it's a highlights showreel of the full Hamersley assays, reminder of the silver, copper, gold, and PGM, and an outline of the next 3-6 months' operations.
@bigplan. TrekMadone made a very good point a week or so ago that if the SP hits £1 it ought to go powering upwards: "What isn’t likely to last is a sp of £1. If you think about it £1 isnt really a price. TAI is min £1.30, unrisked and that derisks the others so it’s either like 10p for failure or around +£2 for the first drill if it comes in, if that makes sense."
In other words, we could be in for a very interesting few months.
@HH "the only thing we can say for sure is that ore in the ground is worth far less to a share price than ore on a slow boat to China" is absolutely true, and made me smile.
I didn't intend to get rampy, but just felt it worth publishing my own reasons for A/ putting a decent chunk of my money into UFO and B/ not worrying what it's trading at today. There are still many potential pitfalls awaiting us. For an example, look no further than ECR a month or so ago; a placing to fund more drilling (20% drop) and then a week later assays which undid all the optimistic expectations (a further 30% drop). It can happen in exploration mining, certainly !
@944Turbo
Either way we'll all be very much wealthier. But your version looks better to me. Lol.
It's all just probabilities and estimates until assets are proven, deals are struck, and markets respond. But it's good to take focus off the "oh no, it's down 1.3% today" brigade and keep it firmly on why we're invested.
Good luck to all, and enjoy the good weather.
It's a good point, but I'd kind of taken into account that increasing commodity prices as well as (temporary) surging demand will drive inflation over the next year, which the banks will then suppress with rising base-rates, which will temper the demand for infrastructure and therefore raw materials. In short, a nil-sum equation.
I mean goodness knows what will actually happen - I'm just trying to predict the future with probabilities. And there's a good probability I'm wrong.
So just a gentle reminder of what we’re weighing up here with UFO. And I would genuinely welcome comment from others where far greater experience will illuminate my crude crayon-style calculations.
If you’re familiar with distribution-curves, then you’ll understand the idea that there’s various ways of carving up a probability, but we could keep it simple and say there’s a 20% likelihood of the bottom value scenario playing out, 20% chance of the top-valued scenario, and a 60% chance of the most-likely middle value happening.
With UFO at a MCAP of £40M, we can apply that distribution curve to what may/may not happen in the next two years or so – and to keep things simple, this is ONLY on the iron.
Bottom 20% scenario (IE: low values on everything because it's all rubbish and we're unlucky):
Only 50Mt of iron @$200 per ton = $10Bn.
90% of it to Alien thanks to last week’s bonza news = $9Bn.
Divided across 20 years mine lifetime* = $450,000,000pa
Mined on a JV for 20% = $90,000,000 per year
Exchange Rate of 1.3 = £70,000,000 per year.
If MCAP = 3 x multiple of annual turnover, then £210M = undiluted SP of 5p
*except a smaller mine will have a shorter lifetime, so greater value per year
Top (ie: top end values on everything because the world shines on UFO shareholders)
240Mt of iron @ $200 per ton = $48Bn
90% of it to Alien = $43Bn
Divided across 20 years mine lifetime = $2,200,000,000 pa
Mined on a JV for 25% = $550,000,000 per year
Exchange rate of 1.3 = £423,000,000 per year.
If MCAP = 4 x multiple of annual turnover, then £850M = undiluted SP of 21p
Middle ( a broadish range of values suggesting the most likely path)
120Mt of iron. All the same calculations, but keeping the JV at 20% instead of the more optimistic 25% in the “Top” example = £165M income per year.
Equals MCAP at roughly £500M = undiluted 12p SP.
Obviously there’s also the silver, copper, gold, zinc, PGM, and whatever else Bill can unearth. So these values are all a little low, but actually might be counterbalanced by some dilution (if needed once the EH tailings are proven and generating income).
For transparency, I have opted for a three-times income multiple because a line has to be drawn in the sand somewhere, and Price/Cash Flow would be similarly open to interpretation at this point. I would welcome a steer from those with more experience in the exploration sector on that point.
So we can fret about the short term SP, or feel confident that - at absolute worst - we're looking at 4 bags over the next two years. All IMO, of course. I am not a professional advisor/analyst.
GAH ! Sorry, let me delete that. I had to repost, and lost all the spacings !
So just a gentle reminder of what we’re weighing up here with UFO. And I would genuinely welcome comment from others where far greater experience will illuminate my crude crayon-style calculations.If you’re familiar with distribution-curves, then you’ll understand the idea that there’s various ways of carving up a probability, but we could keep it simple and say there’s a 20% likelihood of the bottom value scenario playing out, 20% chance of the top-valued scenario, and a 60% chance of the most-likely middle value happening. With UFO at a MCAP of £40M, we can apply that distribution curve to what may/may not happen in the next two years or so – and to keep things simple, this is ONLY on the iron.Bottom 20% scenario (IE: low values on everything because it's all rubbish and we're unlucky):Only 50Mt of iron @$200 per ton = $10Bn.90% of it to Alien thanks to last week’s bonza news = $9Bn.Divided across 20 years mine lifetime* = $450,000,000paMined on a JV for 20% = $90,000,000 per yearExchange Rate of 1.3 = £70,000,000 per year.If MCAP = 3 x multiple of annual turnover, then £210M = undiluted SP of 5p*except a smaller mine will have a shorter lifetime, so greater value per yearTop (ie: top end values on everything because the world shines on UFO shareholders)240Mt of iron @ $200 per ton = $48Bn90% of it to Alien = $43BnDivided across 20 years mine lifetime = $2,200,000,000 paMined on a JV for 25% = $550,000,000 per yearExchange rate of 1.3 = £423,000,000 per year.If MCAP = 4 x multiple of annual turnover, then £850M = undiluted SP of 21pMiddle120Mt of ironAll the same calculations, but keeping the JV at 20% instead of the more optimistic 25% in the “Top” example = £165M income per year. Equals MCAP at roughly £500M = undiluted 12p SP.Obviously there’s also the silver, copper, gold, zinc, PGM, and whatever else Bill can unearth. So these values are all a little low, but actually might be counterbalanced by some dilution (if needed once the EH tailings are proven and generating income).For transparency, I have opted for a three-times income multiple because a line has to be drawn in the sand somewhere, and Price/Cash Flow would be similarly open to interpretation at this point. I would welcome a steer from those with more experience in the exploration sector on that point.So we can fret about the short term SP, or feel confident that - at absolute worst - we're looking at 4 bags over the next two years. All IMO, of course. I am not a professional advisor/analyst.
Not that fussed what the SP is by end of June. 1.5p ? 2p ? It's like one of the stations on your commute: people get on and others get off (ooh err), and I'll just sit reading the news until we're two years down the line.
FWIW, I'll pitch at around 1.3p end of June. We've seen a run of positive announcements in the last few weeks which have done nothing to the SP, but solidify the reason to buy and take risk away. Final Hancook assays should boost the SP, but then so should the 40% value increase in Hamersley.
I still think UFO at this price is a steal. It's a bit like last year when those in the know bought at 0.2p. Patience produces profits here.
Yes, absolutely @wilco999 and Computer909.
Someone here appears to have an agenda, or needs to actually think things through.
EQT is looking to fuel growth and needs the funds to do so. It hasn't yet got the means to fuel that from profit, though 2021 is expected to be the year to start generating profit. The company has raised funds - possibly for the last time if sufficient profits can be generated - and the overwhelming majority of holders and new investors (over-subscribed) believe it will reap rewards. As Computer909 said - look at the last placing and the performance afterwards.
To which I would add: look at the recent hires to hugely bolster the sales function, to prioritise the pipeline and convert the best opportunities.
I look forward to the next couple of RNSs, as those contracts move ever closer to signatures.
@HH - absolutely agree with you. I benefited from last year's spike but don't want to see a similar speculators spectacular in 2021. More solid than souffle, please.
Sorry all - complete idiocy. Missed today's RNS entirely !! Posted my comment and THEN saw it.
I'll shut up and clamber back into my box now.
Yeah, it's an interesting day's movement for us here. Can't see an obvious reason for it. Indian variant is still a wrinkle - virtually every day the number of new cases is higher than it had been a week ago - and that's been the case almost every day for nearly 3 weeks now. Maybe the likelihood of "normality" returning is finally dawning on some. Welcome news - just hope it's sustained into the 40s.
Extraordinary. I know I counselled for patience only two days ago, but on today's news (on top of the run of news) and the early price action, there is no way on earth this should still be lingering under 1.2p.
Anyway, set my alarm for 44 days' time, ready for the next Tailings update.
Hopefully the final DSO assays will be published early next week. UFO shall not be ignored !! (in a Stewie Griffin voice).
Well, if the remaining 37 assays form the next RNS in roughly a week (?)
And then soon after, an update on EH Tailings, or San Celso/Los Campos, which the operational update 22nd March stated: "have projected to be able to start at least San Celso in the next few weeks" and is fully funded
And then a revaluation from Turner Pope.
It would cap off an extraordinary sequence of RNSs which thus far have had little impact on the MCAP. This is "coiled spring" time.
PS: If the SP sits in the doldrums until 1st July then HappyHaddock is either a witch or some kind of Elon Musk market manipulator. We can all vote on it at the 10p party.
TrekMadone: "£1 isn't really a price". I love it. I completely see your logic, Tai would fund everything (minus a placing for production) and hopefully the other two fields hold what's hoped for and your £5 becomes reality.
I was first drawn to HE1 because of your posts a couple of months ago, Trek - thank you - and first got in at a sliver under 7p.
So even the non-existent £1 would be a tremendous win.
Looking forward to a positive couple of weeks here as we lead up to spud.
Did anyone else notice that the intraday chart was broken today for BOIL ? It's just stuck there at 3.21 % blue all day.
Can't be right, can it ? Lol.
Note: I'll take 3.21% every day. Especially if it's every day for a year.