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Yet again management give the market a reason to hit the price. They stopped prelims yet they put out two for this quarter. Less than 1000 trades yet price hit for 7%. They really are letting us down. The market sentiment is so very low. They latch on to anything. Management know this so why feed it.
1st August Gold price was $1420 CEY share price was 127.25.
We should be higher than this as year end target is within guidance.
Hi Rebess
Thanks. I still find it strange that management changed their policy on reporting end of quarters only this year and even removed the old prelims making us wait much longer for info, yet now they decided to predict the Q3 output before Q3 was even finished. I have asked them directly but they will not reply. It does make me a little worried as the market really loves to slap down this share. The sentiment still seems very low compared to previous years. When Q3 results come out, the market may use the same news again. Very frustrating. Management really need to put out some more positive news eg Ivory Coast or Burkina Faso. Something to jolly us along!
Hey Rebess,
Looking at those figures again. They say Q3 below Q2 but do not mention Q1. Say that Q3 is between Q1 and Q2, say 116,500oz. That would leave 139,404 for Q4 to hit 490,000 for the year. That is only a 21,491oz or 18.23% increase on Q2 or an 18.45% increase on Q3. That does not seem inconcevable. We know that they are capable. Although this all seems very strange, for them to estimate Q3 before it has actually finished.
Average house price in 1960 in England was £2530, it is currently about £246,000.
I make that about 97 fold!!! Maybe POG still has plenty of legs.
Thanks Rebess. I have asked why there is an issue, but no reply!
Hey Tiger,
Loved your Hapi Zone analogies. Made me smile :)
POG looking even stronger atm. $1445 and £1149. I wonder what it will take to restore faith in the market.
The market thought that CEY were worth £1.36 in February with gold at $1320. Even though since then, production is up, POG is up and costs are down(compared to 2018 figures which were all we knew before any results). Even with increased profit share maybe absorbing $48 oz there is still a +$50 oz increase which should be worth something on the £1.36.
Hi Tiger,
Just thought I would show this line from Centamin again.
As per our guidance, the production profile for Sukari is for quarter on quarter improvements. As such, Q2 2019 is forecast to be stronger than Q1 2019. The main driver for this is increased contribution from the open pit, as we increasingly access the higher grade sulphide material in the Hapi Zone.
All being well then >116K
Just looked at a couple of dates to compare where we are.
11th May 18 - before that lovely downgrade
CEY 164.25p Annual Production 560,000 Profit Share 55/45 AISC $884
Gold 1319
560000 * (1319-884) = $243m
55% 243 = $133.65m
3rd July 19
CEY 112.9p Annual Production 505,000 Profit Share 50/50 AISC $920 - taking an average from forecast
Gold 1417
505000 * (1417-920) = $250m
50% 250 = $125m
Cannot see that the so called massive affect of profit share really makes THAT much difference to last year.
So projected profit within $8m of where we were at 164.25p. Does that really add up to a 51.35p drop!!!
GLA
Gold did have rather a good run, I guess that a pullback and consolidation is healthy, before the opportunity to rise further.
I asked them a few times when this report was coming. No answer. They are letting the market and shareholders down yet again. Why report that you are going to do something, then don't bother. Very poor IMHO.
Based on their year lows, CEY are up about 40% but HGM over 60%. It seems odd that CEY low was more recent even though financials are much better now than during 2018. I have always used HGM as a bit of a guide as they tracked a very similar share price to CEY ( I realise that market caps are different). It really seems to point to a very very low market sentiment of CEY.
Really odd how cey drops so fast after taking an age to climb with pog. HGM up 20p over 10% in last 5 days. CEY up 2p over last 5 days. The market must still really hate CEY!!!
I notice in Cowichan's post tthat it syas "The amendments to the third article include licenses being valid for mines, quarries, and navigators if they were issued before the law was in force." This would lead me to believe that Centamins licence would be updated and the old one destroyed.
Nice find Cowichan. Should be significant. Gla
Surely, if Centamin are moved onto this new arrangement, then whether or not the financial implications are better or worse, the court case would become immaterial as it would be based on an old contract!!
I had asked Centamin about a Q2 forecast. It appears that they only gave a Q1 forecast because it was a fair bit lower than Q4 2018. I do not believe that there will be any quarterly forecasts/updates, unless the figures are substantially different. Guess that could be up or down?? They are standing by the quarter on quarter growth, weighted toward H2. Looks like a wait for the Q2 results on 24th July!!
The company has over 1.3B in assets yet the market cap is only 1B. Numbers never seem to add up, so no guarantees that using some cash would have any affect on market cap.