Our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with QuotedData's Edward Marten has just been released. Listen here.
I guess that technicals must be playing a big part in the sp. Looking at sp over past few months, it has probably averaged around 0.6p. Yet here we are after the news and still under that average. Still wonder how, with KODs share of the money at $67.5m (hainan $50m) is 0.27p per share at 20bn shares. Pre funding 0.67p now .56p which removing the 0.27p gives a current company value of 0.29p LOL. Plus a 40% increase in the Lithium resource, seems to have done nothing, yet. Anyway, I am holding this. First time I have been in an AIM explorer(soon to be producer) that is fully funded and debt free. GLA
Hey Doc83,
Thanks for your feedback as well as the others that attended.
Was there a rep from Polygon? If so, did you get a chance to chat!!!
Those figure are certainly very conservative. There seems to be little difference in the content, other than price adjustments and recovery rate. I wonder why it took 7 months to produce this. The plant costings were completed in Q1. Anyway, another recent update from an Australian Lithium producer.
https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2022/06/05/2456370/0/en/Continued-strong-product-pricing-and-operational-update.html
"BRISBANE, Australia, June 06, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Allkem Limited (ASX|TSX: “AKE”, the “Company”) provides an update on product pricing and operations.
Lithium carbonate
Continued strong market conditions positively impacted the price received for lithium carbonate from the Olaroz Lithium Facility. The June quarter FY22 average price received for lithium carbonate is expected to be approximately 14% above prior guidance at US$40,000/t FOB1 on sales of approximately 3,500 tonnes. Customers continue to value security of supply which is reflected in a fully committed order book for the remainder of the calendar year.
Spodumene
Similarly strong conditions continue in the spodumene market with realised spodumene concentrate pricing in the June quarter of approximately US$5,000/t SC6% CIF. Shipped spodumene concentrate for the quarter is anticipated to be approximately 38,000 dry metric tonnes (“dmt") at an average grade in line with customer requirements of 5.3% with a further 15,000 dmt to be shipped in early July 2022.
Current estimated annual spodumene production for FY22 is anticipated to fall marginally short of guidance by approximately 2-4%, at between 192,000 - 196,000 dmt, due to production delays resulting from the highly competitive Western Australian resources labour market and COVID-19 related requirements due to the delayed re-opening of the Western Australian border. Strategies have been implemented to mitigate these temporary impacts on production.
Argentine reference price
Argentina’s Customs Agency has recently set a reference price for lithium carbonate of US$53,000/t. This reference price is used by regulatory authorities when reviewing export sales of lithium chemicals to prevent under-invoicing and improve pricing transparency. This price is not used for calculation of taxes, royalties or duties and Allkem does not expect it will have any material impact on product exports, realised prices or profitability.
This release was authorised by Mr Martin Perez de Solay, CEO and Managing Director of Allkem Limited."
70m per year profit on a relatively low P/E of 5 would equate to 350m or over 7p a share. This is without EH, Brockman, Munni and Mexico!
Yeah, those figures are well outdated for Spodumene. Looking the the April report @ https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/04/02/2415141/0/en/Lithium-carbonate-and-spodumene-concentrate-pricing-update.html
March quarter sales of spodumene concentrate were completed at a price of approximately US$2,218/t SC6% CIF DMT which includes tonnes that were delayed from the December quarter.
Similarly strong conditions in the spodumene market are supporting advanced discussions for spodumene concentrate pricing in the June quarter of approximately US$5,000/t SC6% CIF on sales of approximately 50,000 tonnes.
That would equate to over $4500 per ton profit. On 220000 tons per annum = $1bn profit per year. Crazy numbers!!
400% + uplift in spod price. Look at the increase in profit. Was $680 -$466 = $214 per ton. Will be min $3000 - $466 = $2534 per ton. Massive.
See the 6% spodumene price is still on the way up. Current price is $3555 per ton. https://www.metal.com/Lithium/201906260003
Looking good for the revised feasibility study. Min 220,000 tons per annum. Was $680 less $466 costs = $214 per ton profit. Currently looking at $3555 les $466 costs = $3089 per ton profit. Maybe costs up a bit but still kind of impressive.
From EAU
“death rates generally lower than placebo"
Phase 3 was against placebo + SOC, so to show a reduced death rate is more compelling as the bar was set higher.
Just to add, their exchange trades gold per g and silver per oz.
Rocket and Forrest,
You could have a look at Kinesis Money. You can buy gold and silver. It is stored for free although you can take delivery. It is 100% physical backed crypto. The gold currently pays over 6% pa for holding. I have been in it for years. They only started paying yields last April. Owned by ABX, so pretty trustworthy.
There is some merit in the idea of a big Pharma takeover. Look at pre result notes by numis. Anything from £7 to £75 sp was being touted. Yes, the result was disappointing, but there are some good talking points about possible paths forward. The buyout would have been anything up to £15b according to numis, so £400m is peanuts now. Big Pharma could exploit the positives much quicker. Numis latest target happens to be £2.20. GLA
From previous RNS
Producing on average 220,000 tonnes of 6% spodumene concentrate per annum, at life of mine ("LOM") lithium average metallurgical recovery of 71%, based on laboratory metallurgical recoveries of 75%;
o Total LOM will produce 1.94Mt of concentrate; and
o LOM revenue exceeding USD$1.4bn, with an initial concentrate sale price of $680/t based on operations commencing H2 2021, thereafter, increasing 2% year-on-year.
Proposed 2Mtpa processing plant utilising a conventional flotation circuit to maximise spodumene recovery:
o Estimated C1 cash costs of USD$431 per tonne concentrate (USD$466 including royalties and sustaining capital).
Capital requirement for development estimated to be USD$117M plus contingency:
With latest Spod 6 price at $2550/t
LOM revenue exceeding USD$4.95bn, with an initial concentrate sale price of $2550/t increasing 2% year-on-year.
This is over 3 x the original estimate. On top of this Spod 5.5 is getting $2350/t, so new figures will surely show an increase in concentrate. I just cannot figure out how the SP is dropping since licence, when the value in the ground has more than tripled. Projected profit per ton from $214 to $2084 - nearly 10 fold. This would give a mine payback in about 3 months with $458m per year profit from the 220,000tons output. A P/E of 5 would put a value of $2.3b or 16p per share.
Seems very high, so please point out where I have gone wrong.
Although that shouldn't affect receipt of P2 results, as you say.
Didn't SAB RNS first patient dosed on A2 P3. It would appear that our A2 P3 has not yet started.
Yes very odd. Was it not the FDA that changed the course of the Sprinter P3, resulting in inadequate numbers and dodgy endpoints. Then the seamless move from Active phase 2 to 3, has been put on hold while the sp plummets. If I truly believed in conspiricies, then this would be a great one for the USA and Polygon.
Hey Doc, You only get to know the sex after the 8 week scan. We are in 13 month territory. Lol
Hey, give him a break. Maybe Jaffjoon is a Camel or a Giraffe:)
Ahhh, it makes sense now!!(see below from yesterday). This poster believes that the sentiment analysis tools can spot negative chat and then the bots sell!! He/she wants some cheap SNG shares!! More precious than he is letting on, me thinks!!!
Sangijuelas1
Posted in: DDDD
Posts: 2,944
Price: 38.00
Strong Buy
RE: Algo trading article 27 Jan 2022 16:52
Negative posting can feed into the sentiment analysis tools telling the algos to sell more.
Wow. So many 1 share sales. Last one about 2p down on buy prices. There have been quite a few today. Anyone have an opinion --- Tony maybe.
Theres the polygon increase. 17.08%