Considering Mark Bristow, CEO of Barrick and Liam (our new chair) are speaking at the metals and mining conference at the end of August, I suspect Barrick are fine combing SOLG for the slaughter once PFS numbers are know ....
WHY EVERY PI NEEDS TO KEEP NICK MATHER IN POWER
For Cornerstone to succeed you need to be credible. They are not credible.
Examples on GREG CHAMANDY:
Read page 11. He’s been bankrupt with Liquid Nitrogen.
Read from point 5 on page 42 of how he conspired to wire channel funds back to himself.
Check out what he did at Gildan, got out of a clause he didn’t like.
£1.50 assumes a major discovery at Porvenir and/or other prospects, as well as an NPV of c$8.5-9bn after PFS - aka After 30/9/20.
Right now we are valued at 13% of NPV of the current published NPV of $4.3bn. FV should be c 20% as things stand, so around 40p.
When this doubles (and it will) And funding is sorted that 20% becomes 40% = £1 a share. Add in a discovery and BHP lock-in ending, are you telling me a company with 23m Oz of Gold, 92m Oz of silver won’t be sold for £3.4bn?
Look at BHP’s track record of bids, and look at NM’s track record of selling companies. It’s what he does best.
Let’s not forget - The worlds top companies require Copper and they require Gold.
Also we have 92m OZ of silver. If the Silver price rises to make the Gold to Silver ratio 46 or less (highly probable), that’s like an extra 1m OZ gold (excluding the previous price of $16 in the PEA).
We are the best company in the world to take over. We will get a premium for our other sites above £1/share for Alpala. How much depends on the massive results due out of Porvenir. I expect NM will accept £1.50 minimum.
Enough from me now, GLA. We need news this week.
Hi Quady - on point 5 about Franco, I think the January deadline for 1.5% or the option to buy back 0.5% means that NM will know by the end of December whether he is going to accept a bid or not. If not, he will go for 1.5% and to construction.
If however he accepts a bid, they can buy back 0.5% which is not too damaging to another buyer.
These clauses for me prove a bid is coming before Xmas, could be sooner, as soon as the PFS is out?
Fair Value at PFS stage before BFS is 40% of NPV.
Many be up to $1bn for any shot discoveries on Porvenir or La Blanca.
Fair Value 2020 = £1.25/share.
FV in 2021 is 55% of NPV plus $1.5bn other discoveries = £2/share.
These are minimum imo - with Gold at 2,000 and not rising to $3,000.
Quady - You think we are going to production? You’re wrong imo and here is why:
1) When we hired Citi back in April and the FT reported “SolGold bolsters hostile takeover defences” on April 21st, NM would have done that for a reason. He must know a bid is coming. Tick tock it’s been 3 months and 19 days since that article.
2) NCM withdraw their Board rep because they’re about to either Buy or Sell more. Why would they sell, it makes no sense? Another hint of a possible bid or more control of Cascabel.
3) NM has not denied being I formally approached in one of the webinars. He probably couldn’t deny because they’re at the NDA stage and DD is ongoing.
4) He did a last ditch cheap raising at 21.5p. Last chance to get himself and hi friends some cheap shares.
5) FrancoNevada praising SolGold’s Cascabel prospect in their earnings call.
6) CGP desperate to sell themselves with the sell sign well and truly up. They are desperate Cz they know whoever buys SOLG buys them for $3.5m.
7) CGP have said publicly SOLG have material insider info they’re not disclosing and SOLG have publicly denied this. What could this be? CGP want this in the public as it would probably raise their share price too!
It all points to a takeover within 5 months.
Their response on Due diligence completion:
Carey MacRury -- Canaccord Genuity -- Analyst
Okay. And then maybe just on the SolGold transaction, just wondering what the schedule looks like just on the due diligence completion.
Eaun Harrison Gray -- Vice President of Business Development
Hi Carey, Eaun Gray here. Due diligence is ongoing, we hope to complete something in the near term, as we've previously messaged. Obviously, with COVID, these things are bit challenging but it's ongoing.
Apologies if already mentioned but I didn’t read much last week on the board - too many posts!
Points from the below:
1) Until January next year we have the option to get another $50m and total then = $150m. Also the option to buy back 0.5% “for a period of time”. Does this mean NM expects takeover before January 2021?
2) Onsite due diligence still to be done due to Covid. Eliza confirmed almost done via email.
3) News soon!! Bid before Xmas £1-2.
Paul Brink -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director
Thank you. I'll be talking about recent business development activity and our future growth drivers. During Q2, we reached agreement on $100 million financing for SolGold, where we will receive a 1% NSR on gold production from Cascabel property in Ecuador. Cascabel is a large copper-gold porphyry system amenable to block caving, and we believe one of the best copper-gold development projects globally.
M&I Resources are 2.7 billion tonnes at 0.53% copper equivalent, very interesting to us that includes more than 21 million ounces of gold. The resource includes a high-grade core of more than 440 million tonnes at 1.4% copper equivalent. So, goal has the option until January of next year to increase the deal by 50% that would be a 1.5% royalty and $150 million financing. They also have the option to buy back half of the royalty for a period of time. We've retained an option to convert the NSR on all metals to a gold only royalty on an NPV neutral basis.
As COVID travel restrictions were in place when we agreed the transaction, on site due diligence was deferred. We've provided interim funding to allow SolGold to continue its activities until we can complete our due diligence. Credit for the transaction goes to Eaun Gray and our business development team, and they are available to take any questions later in the call.
Mentioned here as one of the “more interesting pieces of news for Q2” is the agreement with SOLG. They see a big part of their future woth SolGold - maybe they’ve verbally agreed to the $1bn once DD is done.
The fact that they have not recorded the interest makes me ponder.
Under IFRS or GAAP rules (accounting standards) if you think the income is “probable” (>50% likely) then it should be booked as income and if it is unlikely then you shouldn’t book it. Are they being extra prudent or do they themselves think it won’t complete?
And the number of times Nick Mather has said “IF FrancoNevada sign off on the $150m we have funding until Dec-21” makes me think even he thinks it’s questionable.
Or am I overthinking.
RBC predict a gold price of $3,060 by Q1 2021.
Citi already predicted $3,300 within 2 years.
Goldman’s are at $3,000 too.
RBC advising NCM on what to do? Damn right they should advise a £2 bid before the PFS is out.