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There is constant positive news coming out with BXP, but it's a shame it doesn't get RNS'd... Below is a link to their recent agreement to supply in the Philippines. Not sure why the Q3 update didn't mention all the positive work going on. It almost seemed like it was written to hit the SP (maybe they're looking to buyback UK GDRs??? - if they can that is)
https://www.sunstar.com.ph/article/1861799/Cebu/Feature/A-ray-of-hope-for-Covid-19-treatment
The Q3 results looked pretty good to me (earned more in the 1st 3 quarters than the whole of 2018) - Q4 may be impacted but if they expect year on year growth, Q4 should still be showing profit.. - Be interesting to see if we're still getting 30% of profits as a dividend. Could still be looking at a c5% yield. That said you only need to be on the books in November (5 months away) to receive the divi - so I guess you could argue the yield is more, on a pro-rata basis, if someone invested now..
Hi Rossannan - I think the low cost + # of manufacturers of dexamethasone, probably dampened the markets excitement - but agree it's good they've covered the COVID-19 field. I thought the Remdesivir manufacturing + deal with Searle, may have had more than a short term impact on the SP, but it's a funny old stock - and well undervalued (IMO of course). We may see a tick up on the Q3 release next week (it often does)..
We finally have some clarity on the release of Q3 results - it looks like it will be the 23rd of June (board meeting taking place on the 22nd)..
Hi Cyberduck - RNS on 3rd May stated
"Reporting of Q3 financial results is delayed, as sanctioned by the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission."
I believe also the BSEC were short of staff but seemed to have recruited some key players recently (source Dhaka Tribune). We may get next week but who knows? Morngingstar are saying the 10th of June, but then they've been wrong 4 times already on the Q3 date..
Re: the SP on the DSE as I understand it there is a floor on the DSE SPs, i.e. they can't drop below a certain price. I'm no expert in these things but if you knew the floor was say 60tk I could see traders buying sizeable amounts, with no risk, elevating the price and dumping - all risk free as worst case scenario they'd get their money back? Like I say I've not got a good handle on this but if we see the same next week maybe something in it?
I thought we'd see an RNS this morning.
Here is the one released by Searle to the Pakistan stock exchange
https://dps.psx.com.pk/download/document/148268.pdf
BXP Importing Remdesivir into Pakistan (link to full article pasted at the bottom)
"According to a statement released by Searle Company Limited on Friday, the firm has entered into an exclusive licensing and marketing agreement with Beximco Pharmaceuticals, Bangladesh.
“It’s the first company in the world to introduce the generic variant of the drug. Our partnership will provide an immediate supply of the finished product at an affordable price and will help healthcare providers of Pakistan to treat their hospitalised Covid-19 patients without any delay,” said Mohammad Sajid, business development director at Searle.
Asked about drug price in Bangladesh and its dosage, Mr Sajid said it cost around $70 per vial and six to a dozen vials were administered to a patient depending upon disease’s severity.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1560334/pharma-firm-plans-to-import-covid-19-treatment-drug-from-bangladesh
Nice to see a 10% jump on the Dhaka today (9.88% to be exact), on decent volume..
What was interesting the SKY News interview was BXPs confidence they will get the Remdesivir price down in time. With generics that effectively equates to volume, and lots of it. So I assume they're confident in selling some sizeable amounts down the line.
An area worth watching, I think, are the countries reviewing a "compulsory license" for Remdesivir. As I understand it this can be used in an emergency situation e.g. pandemic, when drug supplies are limited, and allows a country to bypass the existing patent. The state can then buy/manufacture a generic version, and pay the patent holder (Gilead) a royalty - at least that's how I interpret it. But could mean BXP can export into these countries (again as I understand it)?
Nice interview with Beximco on SKY News.. - also mentions selling for $65 a vial..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7sJbsDSm5A
They previously stated "The company plans to price the drug, which is given via intravenous infusion, at between 5,000 and 6,000 takas per vial ($59-$71/per vial), Beximco’s Chief Operating Officer Rabbur Reza told Reuters, adding a patient might need anywhere between 5 and 11 vials"..
They can sell outside Bangladesh but I wonder how "free" the drug actually is to the Bangladesh government? e.g. if they can manufacture say for $2 a vial, but value the sale at $60/vial could they offset the supply to the government as a "charitable donation" based on its retail value i.e. if they were to provide 100,000 vials (cost of goods being $200k) could they offset $6M (100,000 x $60) against their tax bill - thus effectively netting the company a decent return on their investment? I don't know - maybe it's genuinely altruistic (or a PR exercise at least)..
Hi Yuri - the market may be answering your question : )
I'm not sure if it's their COVID-19 meds though, or some buyer in the background helping the SP tick up ?
Article below may be of interest - I'm not sure if they are selling any, or just giving it away?
https://tbsnews.net/bangladesh/health/bangladesh-makes-favipiravir-treat-covid-19-patients-65143
I think the company still need to rebuild investor confidence. I had my fingers burnt here on the failed Phase 3 Birch pollen study. Still hold a small amount but have been very disappointed with their lack of transparency as to why their P3 study failed (should have been a "slam dunk" as our US colleagues say).
Thanks Beza - and some potentially good news for Bangladesh with only one new case in the past 72 hrs... Hopefully this will continue and I doubt anyone there is complacent - quite rightly still in lockdown. We'll know more in a week or 2 how it's really going in Bangladesh..
Good luck to all - this has been a good ride, and a useful site, but I've made the decision to close out. May turn out to be the wrong one - who knows - but have some concern around the disruption to ongoing clinical studies... Hoping I'm wrong on this..
not sure why I said ignore my last post - I think there's only me looking at this site :( - oh well can inform myself..
ignore last post - the jump on the DSE of 16.7% was on tiny volume (so pretty meaningless really)
Nice to see a 16% rise on the DSE today, before their weekend break. Maybe, like food, people are realising we still need medicines (more than ever). Q3 figures out next month and I wouldn't be surprised if these are slightly up on expectations - if pharmacies/warehouses have been stockpiling drugs.
Most studies will use the ITT (all patients who entered the study) as their primary population for analysis, and need to present this population for a regulatory submission (marketing authorisation application). However, in a non-inferiority study such as the AEGIS-H2H clinical trial, which is not being used to support a marketing authorisation, you can pre-define the per protocol population as your primary population for analysis, and present the ITT alongside it. The issue here appears that the protocol required the study meet non-inferiority in both the ITT and PPP, and the company “inadvertently” forget to mention this to investors. The market’s completely overreacted as this won’t be new news to regulators or anyone assessing the pricing of the drug. It’s just new news to investors who feel a bit aggrieved it wasn’t at least mentioned in the original RNS. In reality, other than denting investor confidence, it won’t really change too much and would have been a known for some time now…
As everything seems to be related to the coronavirus these days, maybe the stable SP here is in part due to the realisation/understanding of what a world could look like without drugs to treat infections (viral or bacterial), and how much we need to keep developing new antivirals/vaccines and antimicrobials?