SP depends on many factors but one important one is how much dilution we are going to suffer in the next 6 months.
Baita needs to start production and then it will increase production during H2, if everything works out.
IMO Marange is not secure yet, as is not Mercuria T2, maybe we will get both tomorrow maybe never.
How much is “good income“? If you believe AP it will be 300 millions cap by the end of the year, I believe he did say that.
Teacup. "To be fair, we shouldn't need AP saying it for people to realise. People just need to open their eyes
and have the ability to count, to figure that the maths says otherwise"
There are 3 type of people, the ones that know how to count and the ones that don't.
2p. I have a similar point of view. I can’t see a real benefit for Bergen to convert as then they will be subject to the sp and the restrictions to sell, also if they convert no doubt sp could go a lot lower which will put them into trouble because then they need to wait the sp go up. Definitely not in Bergen interest to be holding VAST shares and waiting for the sp to rise, I don’t believe is the type of deal they want either. I suppose that they will be happier getting paid their money.
Anyway as Fantasy points out there are different scenarios and probably Bergen can come up with some ideas to get the maximum of this deal but not without risks for them too. A lot of people will wait till Bergen are completely out before to buy in, so no big rises either.
If they convert they will need to inform VAST the % that they hold and VAST would have to release this info via RNS, also I believe everytime that their position change 1% they need to update VAST.
There are not many things to be happy about since Bergen deal was announced, let's wait and see.
I have read a few times here and in twitter people very confident saying that AP was going to get it right, I don't know if this is coming from the telegram group, he always sound very confident but T2 arriving on time doesn't depends on him.
It is not that AP has a plan, he has 3 : Plan A, B, C to avoid Bergen conversion, we will see how things develop next week. We could start a good recovery or we could have a wonderful opportunity to topup for the believers :-))
I just want to point out that in the RNS related to the 3.000.000 bridge facility there is no comments from AP, it is quite weird as usually is AP who would add any comments that they think need to be added for a better clarification of some point.
Instead the comments are from Brian Moritz the chairman, not sure if there is any intention here. Maybe release a bit of pressure for AP as his timelines have been criticised, give shareholders more reassurance, make clear that was a BoD decision, ...
I don’t blame everything on markets but I don’t think that some people knew about Bergen, AP has done quite a lot of placings even 1 mill. with no explanation yet. The Bergen deal is going to hold us back till is sorted out.
VAST is burning cash till Baita arrives, fingers in too many pies, Bergen deal, ... a lot of things not to like in the short term. Lets see if T2 arrives and if not we will find out abot AP plan B and C, if there is any :-))
Angus. It is not priced in, if they convert at a lower sp they get more shares to dump and more dilution for us. People is just selling because don’t trust AP will deliver on time, who can blame them? :-) If they do that for both tranches then Its not going to be good for us till they sell all their shares and the dilution will stay. Lets say that probably we are going to be able to top up at a better prices than now. If T2 doesn’t come then I expect a placing : we get the dilution but we avoid Bergen fast selling.
Fantasy 2018 has been the worst year for stocks since 2008, 10 years, specially hard in Q4. Take a look to the FTSE, DOW, SP,... or if you want mining companies in AIM ARS, EMH, CON, HMI, HZM, etc. That they have lost around 50% of their value, they were not with Bergen and have a similar chart in the last 6 months.
TBTT I believe that is a comprehensive view.
To get this type of mcap everything henge in the diamonds, it is not AP anymore that is saying that are coming is the Mining minister that has said so. James Campbell mention that he expected Bulk Sampling by the end of this year and that they were taking a look to another licences and that information will be released along 2019, probably cash depending.
Maybe this mcap is not going to take one year, IMO 2 or 3 years are possible but in this time another big projects could start to materialise and bring value to the mcap like Blueberry, also Zagra which I believe that sooner or later will bring the attention of a big Miner company.
IMO a clear path to Baita starting production it will result in the turnaround of the sp and restore of confidence that the company so much needs, I mean a defined workplan and the money to realise it. Of course getting rid of Bergen of our backs should also help.
4Kandles. Let me tell you something once and for all : Beer and popcorn is an odd choice!
After your 100 messages saying that VAST is going bust it will be impossible to say that we were not advice :-))
I believe we all understand the risks here but thanks for your explanations !
Next 2 weeks are going to be interesting, from next Monday everything should be sorted out so News from Mercuria can land in any moment, If no news then I suppose that we should get a RNS to request the headroom to be able to ask for the second Bergen tranche, I mean if the BoD dare.
We could dream and have a turn on events: Mercuria T2 approved, Release of Baita work plan, Blueberry drills results, Zagra drill results, PP starting sulphides, Eureka work plan, Red Mercury JV signed off with the official acknowledge from Zimb. gov, Recovery of the old claims in Zimb., Recovery of the diamonds that are in the vault (around $8mill),... Too much? Ok I am just pushing to become the the ramper of the year :-))
Just my last one. Gold is nearing $1300, the price going up can only be good as PP represents 90% (probably 100%) of VAST income.
LOL That is quite good !!
BTW Fantasy you are 14th in the list of rampers
http://pumpedordumped.com/rampchecker/rampcheckbytidm.php?search=VAST
It seems that these days there are more people posting in this BB that don't hold shares than actual shareholders.
I take it as a very good sign, the company really is getting a lot of interest. It is always good than people speak about you, even if is well.
I didn't realise either than there was so many Nice people worried about the Innocent PI and looking after them so they get all they information that they need :-)))))))
Onwards & Upwards
Good volume here in the last days.
It seems that some people are willing to buy at this price, we need to see if it will hold or not.
IMO long term the company has not changed, we are getting hammered but Baita starting production should turn around the sp, well Mercuria T2 coming also will help :-)
I only hope that AP doesn't announce that we have 30% in another Marvellous mine :-)))
I don't believe that there is a plan B or C, only thing will be a placing. A placing carry also costs that added to Bergen costs will make this deal very expensive, still will be better than allow Bergen selling millions of share for several weeks.
The conversion price will be 0.59p or the average of the last 5 days sp (averaged by volume), so I suppose that the week before the 20th we are going to have 1 RNS per day to try to boost the sp as much as possible.
I always have said the same if VAST needed money they should have come to the market, AP has tried to avoid this bump in the road and has jumped in a big hole full of ... This deal is unwelcomed by shareholders and if conversion happens then the sp could be depressed for weeks/months to come.
I still believe that the sp is too low, a conversion at 0.30p will be a dilution around 6.66% for the 1st tranche, is not the end of the world. I hope second tranche never be converted. Hopefully Mercuria will not take more than 2 months.
A lot of people would have thought that it was impossible that AP will bring a convertible loan with Bergen, but here we are.
Just to have agreed to this contract is damaging more the sp than Bergen worst conversion could do.