Member Info for Penguins

Wizard,

You need to read more of what you have cut and paste.

The drag along and tag along clauses are in the event of the majority shareholder selling the company.

Means minority shareholders can be dragged along - ie made to sell on the same terms

Or tag along - minority shareholders can ask for their share to be taken on the same terms.

Not really bothered about the Alba/ Dor situation unless UKOG buy them out (aaaarggh) with more shares.

I posted a long time ago (probably before the May 2018 cut off) that I thought the whole set up was designed to fund the minor parties with UKOG plc as the cash raising element buying than out as required so they could go off and do their own thing.

Mirasol, you're right - pi don't bother to vote through their nominee account, but I would guess that almost all pi hold shares these days in nominee accounts.

Mirasol,

Almost all the shares are in the hands of pi.

The table on the website attributes large percentages of shares to the major nominee account companies - those shares are predominantly pis holdings.

As far as the placing is concerned reading the RNS it doesn't sound to me like UKOG was approached by a kindly ii who wanted to bung SS £2mm because he is such a nice chap as some tweeters and posters are suggesting.

Looking at it in the light of the request to flare gas during the whole time the development wells were being drilled (ie on the cheap semi production), but the change to gas to wire in the RNS, they were not only having to fund the extra 15% (though partners comments should have warned them it was a likely outcome), but also suddenly needing to order gas generators (and plan and pay for ground works and grid connection) now in order to move from ewt to production status. This would have unhelpfully worsened the cash position.

So (based on the above guff) my opinion is this was almost an emergency placing to tide UKOG over until HH-2Z & HH-1 (hopefully) produce enough oil for at least some free cash flow, otherwise there will be the need for more cash injections to drill further wells.

Based on this it's almost impossible to see Tellurian being paid their next tranche of £3mma in anything other than shares.

PCS,

As usual the extent of your ‘argument’ is that I’m an environmentalist; without any justification for making such a claim – and for the avoidance of doubt I’m not, and I have never posted that this share is ‘a dog’ – your words not mine.

So despite your attempts at sarcasm I am gutted that the SP went down and I am gutted that it is unlikely that an ii with any intention of keeping the shares will be involved.

I am more gutted that UKOG keep on diluting with cheap shares.

As for writing guff at least I explain what my 'point' is based on. I copy and paste the shortest extract I can as it’s quite clear a lot of posters do not ‘DYOR’ and have only read what is posted (or tweeted) about RNS.

Tony,

The change in language from 22 October RNS:

‘Following a planned extensive HH-2z EWT campaign, both HH-2z Portland and the HH-1 Kimmeridge well are expected to be put into long term production by the end of 2019’.

To 27 November RNS:-

‘Following the EWT, and subject to the necessary consents from the Oil and Gas Authority, it is planned to transition HH-2z and HH-1 seamlessly from test production into long-term stable oil production.’

Perhaps signalled that the OGA was not going to allow what was requested in the letter of 24 October to the EA:-

‘Horse Hill Developments Limited (HHDL) want to undertake an extended well test programme on each of its 6 wells (HH-1 to HH-6) prior to construction of the processing facility. HHDL propose to undertake testing for 90 days on each well in a linear programme which has a total duration of 540 days.’

Letter:-

https://consult.environment-agency.gov.uk/psc/rh6-0hn-horse-hill-developments-ltd/supporting_documents/NF1910242.pdf

Those claiming that by defaulting the partners will lose their interest, this from the RNS suggests otherwise:-.........’HHDL partners to use part of the Proceeds to fully fund their current cash call obligations in return for a commensurate dilution of their holding in HHDL.’
Dilute, not lose – and Alba was of the opinion previously not paying had minimal effect on their holding.
Unless you have sight of all agreements between HHDL and the shareholders you cannot state other than the above. For all we know the nuclear option may result in HHDL having to immediately repay the loans made already to those partners.

............and yet again UKOG raise to do what they have raised for already although admittedly they do need 15% more, are things that tight?

7 August 2019 RNS:- ‘The Loan ensures we also remain fully funded for further capital expenditures necessary to get the field into long-term production.’

today’s RNS:- ‘the net Placing proceeds will be used partly to accelerate long-lead time gas-utilisation, facilities and other related works necessary to bring HH-1 and HH-2z into stable long-term production.

What is strange is that recently (cover letter 24 October 2019) UKOG applied to the EA for permission to flare all gas for the whole period whilst drilling and testing all 6 wells.

Now they seem to be planning to revert to the original plan for gas to wire for the development – has the EA indicated they won’t permit flaring for such an extended period or maybe the OGA won’t approve an FDP for development without gas to wire.

Who knows – the usual opaque RNS.

Pboo,

Thanks for the link. At least one of the requests was worth £250.

So permission to flow 8200 tonnes during the HHz-2z ewt. At 7.3bbls per tonne thats just under 60,000bbls total. The ewt is in 2 stages, well clean up including periods of flow and shut in followed by a minimum of 90days flow to establish its stable production performance.

So even if the clean up period only flows a small amount the average predicted is about 650bopd over 90days.

Of course the OGA has been very amenable to increases but presumably the company has shown their 'workings' to the OGA to back up the request - and has allowed some headroom.

Let's see what happens - 650bopd would be fine if not spectacular.

Adrian on twitter :-

'People don't like you [penguin icons] as you have continually tried to kill sentiment in #ukog . People don't like pick pockets.'

Well I don't post to make friends or even influence people - is that what it's about? but if one poster can kill sentiment with posts that analyse RNS against the torrent of ramping here and on twitter that insist things have been going well since the start of 2018 it doesn't say much for the sentiment.

However regardless of what I've posted, I never encourage buying or selling, there have been very few days during the last 24 months that selling and waiting to buy during the last few weeks would have lost money so hardly pick-pocketing, whereas constantly claiming every RNS was good or good news was coming probably helped traders, and if anyone believed it most times would mean they would still be at a loss.

FOTH has clarified the 6 tanks do not include the 'fire water tank with 5 at the back (where the storage tankers were) and 1 on its own for tankers'.

He's also banging on about how great twitter is if you want to tweet abusively - well he's not actually saying that but that's what he means as he was banned from LSE for precisely that.

I hope that Adrian hasn't included any of the other large green tanks that can be seen in the picture of the site that heads up the UKOG plc website home page in the total of 6. I'm sure he'll strongly object if he hasn't.

Nevertheless it's good that he is up and about reporting what he sees - I really do hope he is fully back to good health despite being continually unpleasant on twitter to me (sticks & stones comes to mind) for just keeping to a realistic narrative. He (plus Rodders, EOTP others on twitter and here) is wrong that I don't want to see UKOG doing well - it's just that a reasonable analysis of the news hasn't been as good as many seem to think - and it seems the market generally agrees.

If the Portland ewt not only flows well initially but manages at least a long term sustainable rate well below many predictions but sufficient to generate revenue to cover the level of UKOG group monthly outgoings seen from September 2018 to end June 2019 (ca £900,000, about 600bopd at current OP/exchange rate) then a second Portland well, as long as it has similar performance, would be the icing on the cake and preface a possible period of self funding and/or with a reasonable CPR respectable lending.

Until then let's see what the ewt brings and hopefully there will be some more clarity on what is happening with the Kimmeridge.

Ibug,

I wouldn't worry too much about what's in the ewt planning as HHDL has more storage than the plans showed.

Possibly more interesting, although the real answer is not long away, is what UKOG mean by significantly as in the phrase 'the site's oil stock tank storage capacity will also be significantly increased' or significantly greater as in 'significantly greater flow rates'

As Pboo has pointed out current capacity is 1700bbls, production capacity 3500bbls, So max significant increase for the oil tanks seems to be about 2 times.

As for the 7 tanks shown on the plan they are at least partially within the added on area to the current site and nowhere near where the tanks are situated during the west.

Price prediction from 25 August 2016 for end year 2016....

500.00, Firing79
15.00, bendog
10.00, Monoco65
9.25, applegarth
8.75, bazy
8.50, hikeaholick
7.00, ragamuffin
7.00, dazzle1000
7.00, trbw
6.66, Zengah
6.15, tony13579
6.00, Lotech
6.00, bondarenko
5.55, Princemince
5.50, spiderama
5.25, adgy
5.00, copland
4.85, goldeninvestor
4.80, kempey
4.75, cunners
4.25, Poole-Gems
4.20, stockvirgin
4.10, nickamog
3.95, giveusclue
3.88, lyntip
3.80, gandt
3.80, loadsawedge
3.75, shirdisai
3.75, efc1878
3.66, dinero
3.60, Four
3.50, jerseyjohnnie
3.50, onebarkforyes
3.22, goldforefinger
3.25, BLucky77
3.10, manf4949
3.05, brucejamieson
3.00, jack89
2.90, tomsie
2.90, repairer
2.80, wasit10538
2.74, themarquis
2.72, bjarnen
2.70, arabanoo
2.65, harhoo
2.60, Valdez
2.55, Whingold
2.50, midus
2.50, Valdez
2.45, andythemkdon
2.40, Teelin36
2.33, bigdaddyian
2.25, newbie2015
2.22, art9
2.20, VXYZ
2.20, jarcon
2.10, Coey
2.10, Redhouse
2.05, buysellfredmcfc
2.00, jonpiz
1.95, nomadicinvestor
1.85, boston31
1.85, goodbyeZPLA
1.80, RABGBR
1.73, Calred2
1.60, wiresphil
1.60, gwilliams71
1.55, drmedevil
1.54, necromancer
1.52, [close price 25/8/16]
1.50, ste_j
1.45, mald
1.38, kais0r
1.33, rupertbear
1.30, hunkymonkey
1.30, wolfofthewoods
1.28, certacito
1.25, funksoulbrother
1.25, tryphen
1.20, barnaby67
0.99, kev4
0.75, texmor8046

Closing mid price December 30th 2016 was 1.55p - but only 2 were above the price the SP actually reached (if only for moments) during 2017.

Lee Wayne and mick2,

Pray tell me what I have made up?

Last RNS 12 November 77,200bbls, this RNS 78,844. That's 1,644bbls produced during that period. I have assumed they stopped pumping Monday morning as there is a 24 November video where the pump can be seen reciprocating. The company stated in this RNS that testing continued throughout the drilling and stopped during rig down which started Monday.

The only made up bit was that they have heavily choked back production - that was a joke, obviously misfired.

So 1644bbls produced from November 12, and 12 to 24 inclusive is 13 days = 126.5bopd average.

No mention even of maximum half hour rates.

Until UKOG makes a clear statement about the Kimmeridge obviously there will be speculation about what is happening. I expect there will be a mention of a half hour initial rate when they resume pumping the Kimmeridge just to keep you happy.

Seems that UKOG can only use the word significantly. Perhaps wewill find out what they mean by significantly when they add oil storage to the site - if its double the storage that may be an indication.

See the Kimmeridge is obviously being choked back heavily now (!) Assuming they stopped Monday morning I make that about 13 days for 1644bbls while oil production from the HH-1 EWT has continued throughout HH-2/2z drilling. Doesn't take a genius to work out that's not even 150bopd average.

There's levels of commercial.

HH- is drilled so it's cost is sunk, they won't want to flow the Portland from it as it might compromise the horizontal test so they might as well pump the Kimmeridge in what FOTH has previously called 'rocket mode' although the tanker count (containing crude) seems to be dropping. I can't see that not drilling HH-1z is a positive.

Can't wait for the 9 well drilling campaign - though might be a long wait for the first Kimmeridge horizontal at HH (or anywhere).

The Portland might save the SP but the Kimmeridge needs successful horizontals at HH and elsewhere for the SP to ever reach the level that you predict for the end of this year (11.73p).

Tony (& Rodders),

There's no cellar to drill HH-3 and unless the plan has changed this in the Sim Ops 9/10/19 RNS:-

'Following a planned extensive HH-2z production flow-testing campaign, both HH-2z Portland and the HH-1 Kimmeridge well are expected to be put into long term production by the end of 2019.'

No mention of HH-1z....

Leewayne,

You seem to wait, like a few others, for me to post and then make unsubstantiated and factually incorrect claims about me.

Obviously you would prefer no one asks questions, challenges misleading statements or points out inconsistencies between RNS.

You may not understand why as a shareholder I post but surely If you disagree with what I post you should respond with reasoning to refute my views - like Argus did earlier, or filter me if you can't - but don't go around making claims you can't possibly back up - when I say I hold UKOG shares I am telling the truth and that's why I make sure I know as much as possible about UKOG - perhaps if more did as I do there would be less dismay when the SP doesn't react with the same enthusiasm as certain tweeters and posters.

Oakleak

I do read a lot of posts, all the RNS and lots of other stuff and lead a very full life which is why I might not reply for a while - maybe I read and write faster than you. Look at my posting history - I've posted on about 14 days in the last month, about the same as you. Disruptive - only to some who don't like anyone posting who doesn't follow their mantra of every RNS is good (see above re dismay) - and then it's the MMs etc. that stops the SP rising, never the RNS.

Bladehater,

don't be silly - Tidswell was a driller - I'm insulted, anyway according to PCS I'm Ruth (also insulted) and have been accused of being a shorter or even an MM - all wrong. As for positives. I'm on record posting that the SP - if the ewt of the Portland is in the range SS has suggested - should be higher even up to 3.8p but depends on shares in issue, the ewt and more importantly the CPR.

Pboo,

Interesting they would risk running a mill down 2,500ft of slotted liner 'just in case' - they really should minimise any risk of anything getting stuck in the horizontal as a redrill would be an expensive option - though what they would have been rotating down the hole yesterday is a mystery. If they were milling they would need to be circulating but someone said the mud tanks had left, but maybe they hadn't.

Argus,

at least you have begrudgingly mentioned that UKOG's share of Horndean is 10% and not just an unspecified 'share of' as some might assume, given the importance you seem to attach to it, that it's a significant share.

As for your figures I prefer to use as a guide the numbers in the UKOG(GB) Ltd. accounts (ie not guessing) for the year ended 30 September 2018. These are revenue £227,000 and cost of sales £97,000 (43%) leaving a net £130,000. The average Brent OP 2017-2018 accounting period was higher than it was during the 2018-2019 accounts year, and certainly higher than now - and production levels have also dropped since 2018 (OGA dashboard) so I think it's reasonable to expect less than £10,000 a month net to UKOG.

OK so the cost of drilling and ewt of HH-2z is ring fenced, that should take some pressure off (!) - but other costs will have continued so the new loan will have been eroded by the continued testing and other company costs. We will see if the optional YA loan is triggered.

Scallywag,

I've noticed that the pump has been going at about 8 cycles a minute for quite a while (and it isn't a figment of my imagination) - it's apparent that there is no direct relationship between pump rate and production rate for the Kimmeridge.

The only facts we have for production are figures that are irregularly put in RNS - and we don't know how many days actual production they represent, although the pump seems to be running constantly and the averages seem to be less and less.

pboo,

when you say slotted liner has been seen on site do you mean about 80 30ft lengths or the few rusty ones on the lorry the other day?

No one outside the site knows exactly what is happening. The ewt will start when everything is ready and I would expect the rig to have left the site once everything is ready. Until then unless someone firstly sees what's on the end of the 'pipes' going in or coming out and then actually knows what it is all these guesses are pointless. btw I would expect all logging to have been completed immediately after drilling finished

Argus,
you keep forgetting to mention that UKOG only has 10% of Horndean, current production is between about 3900 and 4300 bbls per month and in the year to 30/9/2018 the net to UKOG(GB) Ltd was about £130,000 (with a higher average OP), less than SS's UKOG plc salary.

As for $5mm revenue the last accounts showed that the group was spending considerably more (about 3 times) in the 6 months to 31/3/2019 than the ewt was generating. With a lot of the testing kit now duplicated what consistent flow rate is needed to actually have enough free cash flow to fund further drilling without more YA coin?

Date to committee 30/1/2020...…

Suppose I'll be accused of being negative!

PCS,

Second tanker, no orange plates even zoomed in - though they were easily visible side and rear on the first tanker without zooming.

More noticeable were the wheels were up on the tractor unit of the second tanker...……......….

PCS,

I agree Tellurian will be getting shot of the shares ASAP - someone else other than YA is selling big time. If they were well funded and wanted to stay in they wouldn't have swapped their equity for UKOG shares to keep.

As for EV - will be difficult but technology (eg each car could identify itself to the network and how much power was taken so car charging could be taxed differently) will have some answers to the problems you cite - but you're right about taxes, ultimately control will be through price - so it won't be cheaper to drive petrol or diesel - and it won't be cheap to drive electric.

fjones,

previous loan conversions and then sale of shares (ie not this £5.5mm) have followed a pattern of a final trade that ended with the odd shares. This was often just before the conversion was announced.

The recent conversions seem to have followed the same pattern:
7 November conversion 15,247,001
6 November 16:41 Trade 247,001
Then 3 trades 7 November just before 9am 3,147,001

9 October conversion 16,346,992
8 October 3 trades just before 15:30pm Trade 1,946,992

27 September conversion 37,362,227
27 September 15:08 Trade 2,662,227

16 September conversion 60,926,076
11 September 15:12 Trade 35,926,076

coincidence?

My view is that any conversion has already been at least mostly, if not completely sold by the time it's announced - how that fits with the no short position I have no idea.