Member Info for Penguins

Sting,

Until the strategy of hoovering up acreage against zero competition is proved to have been successful any bonus based on it should be withheld.

The purchase of the BB licence cost about £1.25mm plus (only) 142mm shares, in 2016. Then UKOG spent about £9mm on BB - so far no actual positive results from the licence rather than 'learnings' (that they knew already from surrounding wells). The planned well is a test of the uncommercial undeveloped Godley Bridge Portland gas discovery and a look at the Kimmeridge.

Equity in PEDL 143 has been obtained piecemeal over several years - the Holmwood well was eventually not taken forward. A24 appears to be the same prospect renamed.

IOW was obtained through application, awarded in 2015, a redrill of 2 previous wells - the most recent said by UKO to have been mis-tested.

So apart from additions to HH - which also needs to be proved a successful strategy - all the other acquisitions were before 2018/2019, and as others have pointed out UKOG were forced to buy out Tellurian as they wouldn't (couldn't?) contribute to the drilling phase.

As for completion of work to schedule - internally UKOG must have had a very different plan from those stated in RNS.

The BOD will not know that the 'plan', especially any associated with the Kimmeridge but also any of the planned appraisal wells, will bring any success.

Let's hope you're right that in the next 6 months that all will be revealed, hopefully a CPR.

Mick2,

there was no vote on remuneration, just the full accounts.

The full accounts had no details as to linkage between the KPI (Key performance indicators - daily production, production cost per barrel and operating cashflow and lost time incidents) and bonuses:-

'As a result of the Groups change from an investment company to an operating company on 1 August 2018, the Remuneration Committee is currently in the process of developing a revised remuneration plan for the Executive Directors which will reflect change in responsibilities and roles as a result of the Group’s change in status.'

So there was no way of knowing on what basis a bonus would be paid to SS at the time of the last AGM.

From the consolidated cash account:

Different from the 6 month account reporting of HH oil sales is rolled into (offsets) the ‘Expenditures on Exploration and Evaluation Assets’ item - elsewhere this income is stated as £2.411mm.

So just taking Loss from Operations (£4.788mm)and the gross Expenditures on Exploration etc (£2.411mm plus £3.125mm) gives total operating expenditures of £10.324mm (£0.86mm per month) and HH oil sales of £2.411 (£201,000 per month).

At end period the group had cash of £6.892mm and raised a further £2mm in early December.

September 24 RNS (just before shut in for arrival of rig) aggregate production of 68,773bbls On Feb 6 (‘just over 85,000bbls’ in 400 tankers tweet), current figure is ca96,000 (about 452 tankers – not nearly 500 tankers). So 16,000bbls approx to Feb 6.

Wells were shut in for the CT Unit from about 18/02 to 08/03. So maybe 12 to 18 tankers from 06/02 to 18/02, and then 34 to 40 tankers 08/03 to 31/03. Revenue about $63 x 19,300bbls (up to 18/02) = $1.26mm/£1mm, then up to 31 March 8000bbls x $35 = $280,000/£230,000.

So 75% of 6 months ‘normal’ expenditure (end Sept to end March) = (0.75 x 0.86 x 6) = £3.9mm
hh-2 / 2z drilling say £3.5mm and CT Unit and peripherals £500,000.
Income from oil £1.23mm, placing £2mm and £6.9mm remaining at end September.
So possibly £2.23mm left, depending on cost of rig, CT Unit and monthly outgoings – if they’ve continued at about £0.86mm per month that could be nearer £1mm.

It’s sad the only new information about HH was:-
that HH-1 is now ‘in production’, not sure if HH-2z clean up is finished.
Commissioning the CPR will follow the installation of the HH-1 dual completion.
96000bbls produced to date, supposedly in nearly 500 tankers?
There will be a FDP addenda for HH-2z production:- ‘Further Horse Hill field development phases will be submitted to OGA via FDP addenda, initially the HH-1 Kimmeridge reservoir unit and HH-2z’

Here’s the thank you to shareholders:-
‘The combination of our progress to date and the high traded volumes in our UK listed shares supports our ability to seek to raise additional working capital, should it be required.’

Just for Argus:- Horndean revenue was £213,000 less £97,000 = gross profit of £116,000 = ca £10,000per month. Probably sfa now.

R,

so there wasn't a waste tanker this morning?

As for any other tankers today - your call?

No need to change my post, at the time I posted the only videos and pictures I'd seen were as I stated - one oil tanker, one waste tanker and one tanker in the distance.

About time there was an RNS to clear this up.

R,

Let there be light.

Three BKP tankers. One tanker (oil) and one tanker (waste) in the morning, and one tanker in the distance in the afternoon.

Perhaps reading and understanding isn't your strong point (yes I remember your faux pas about the maximum price YA would have to pay for a conversion).

This is in the first paragraph, second sentence, in the web page you give a link to.
'The 2020 maximum sea ice extent is the eleventh lowest in the 42-year satellite record, but the highest since 2013...'

In case you don't understand that means the Arctic ice extent has not been as big as this year's for 5 years. So no the graph doesn't show that since the lock downs and reduced flying aircraft , the arctic ice sheet is melting faster - it actually shows that this year the extent of the ice sheet is less than the 1981 to 2010 median, and less than the 2011-2012 extent - they don't show the intervening years.

But nobody would suggest that there is only one input to the variations - the general trend is what's important, and 3 months of shut down is unlikely to have an instant effect so as much as you're wrong about cause and effect it isn't as simple as that.

But carry on - it won't be you or I who finds out who got it right.

….and before you claim I'm a green/swampy - I'm just pointing out the error in your analysis - don't just look at the pictures, read the text understand the graph.

R,

serious question. What exactly has been the benefit of getting an irregular count of daily tankers. There seem to be 2 outcomes, dismay at so few or a short spike when a few more tankers are seen and then there's 'no one around to see them' the next day, or there are actually less the next day. I accept that you guys are generous with your time and hope it's a case of unintended consequences but you almost facilitate P & D activity.

I'm not sure whether schroedinger made any other philosophical exercises about numbers of cats rather than whether it was dead or not - maybe the unseen tankers could be a new one.

If several days of a reasonable number of tankers are seen, and we know which wells are producing all the time, and we know whether the tanks were full or empty before those few days then a tanker count means something - but we don't know these things, regardless of which there will be a most positive outcome calculated or a guess of tanker numbers without any shame when that's found to be wrong, in fact worn as a badge of pride for being 'positive'.

YA & / or Tellurian would like to thank FOTH and the other 'eyes' and rampers on twitter, and the rampers on this site for enabling them to sell loads of shares today.

Ironhide, - share buy , of course it was.

Keep it up.

The question is why has SS has decided to hand over the control of the SP to a bunch of guys hanging around the HH site and their associates rather than releasing an RNS? Is he oblivious to the SP and the reason for price movements, perhaps he deliberately sent out 4 tankers yesterday to help out with £1mm worth of shares to hand out next week?

Troll,

Is the HH-1 pump even capable of that level of flow?

.......and what about the HH-2z ewt? The clean up is part of the ewt programme and was continuing until the proposed shut down (that doesn't seem to have happened) and once cleaned up the ewt proper would commence. Maybe it has cleaned up and as with HH-1 perhaps an early part of the ewt is a maximum flow test.

Who knows, 4 tankers today, 4 Saturday and 8 Monday would be good news in the absence of an RNS.

Could you specify what operations on site indicate that HH-2z isn t being flowed?

PCS,

apart from never trying to predict the unpredictable what exactly do I have to eat humble pie for.

I've always said that I have no idea what HH-2z could produce, wait for an RNS or CPR. Any comments I've made about actual production have been based on tanker sightings and often acknowledge there could be 'unseen' tankers - although counts by the eyes haven't usually been that far off.

In fact prediction (or 'expectation-wise) I've rigorously followed the latest company guidance which isn't a number of barrels, just that HH-2z should flow significantly more than the vertical well - with absolutely no guidance as to UKOGs opinion of significantly, unlike the fantasists on this board who believe that any made up number will do as long as it's lots.

Still waiting for an RNS to find out what is really going on. Hopefully this is indeed good news and not just a flurry that helps YA make their return.

Roganjt,

which year? 2021 almost certainly, though they did promise one following the submission of the planning application for the development site - though it is still after the application was submitted which was 15 months ago.

But unless they want one full of caveats based just on HH-1 (which they surely could have done ages ago) they will need a period of stable flow with no surprises and probably high rate flows as well for HH-2z.

So far assuming the tanker count is about right there isn't much sign of significant production from HH-2z if HH-1 is also flowing. FOTH seems to have a sixth sense in concluding HH-2z isn't flowing though. Maybe it's ESP, or lack of it?

roganjt,

6 tankers in three days - but production from nearly 4. Sat morning 10 am to the last tanker to leave this morning (9am?) is effectively 4 days. But is this HH-1 production + HH-2z which should have been cleaning up for about 17 days.

Of course there could be untold numbers of tankers not seen, but I guess harry the horse is a good source.

As for shutting down production maybe UKOG will try and perform the upgrade etc without stopping production or keeping any shut ins to an absolute minimum rather than 10 days as rental of kit will continue used or not and even at this OP every little helps.

The RNS was released on the morning of a significant drop in the OP and the plan has already changed maybe the delay in starting the work was to prepare a different less disruptive plan for the upgrade?

It's about time UKOG gave an update on progress.

Tymers,

absolute rubbish. To start with the watchers, even if they see any equipment, seem to have little idea what it is nor what's going on - they don't even count all the tankers, which at least is not usually open to debate unless the word 'waste' is conveniently forgotten, so do you really believe that UKOG plan their operations around them. Maybe they would see less at night but most operations take place down the hole so night or day doesn't matter. I suspect with their objectional behaviour on twitter they have become as much as an irritant to the company as any 'swampies'.

Looking back through your posts you keep telling everyone to keep to information from RNS and ignore anything else. Presumably you include yourself in the advice to ignore.

Still waiting for that good RNS - roll on Monday (again)

Scallywag,

Fact?

you posted a link to a tweet which I have copied and pasted in my previous post - perhaps you would you like to explain how a tanker this morning could have all of today's production in it?

'And Mondays tankers are taking Saturdays oil bulls****r either'

Badly written I grant you but I don't think he is saying any tankers on Monday will have Saturday's oil in it as they are always proclaiming (as do certain posters on this board) that if there are 2 tankers Monday production is 2 tankers a day - and crestfallen when on Tuesday there's only one.

Oh and I don't think those accused are market manipulators - I think we know who those are - and I don't think any have said 'no oil' - just not as much as some expect - but I can't really speak for the others.

So no facts, just biased opinion / incorrect statements. - and as usual badly written.

Scalleywag,

If you link a tweet I take it you agree with it. But Unless UKOG have time travelling powers the tanker seen this morning will only be shipping out a small part of today's production - or probably none as it still goes through a secondary process before being exported.

But ignoring that, on Monday morning 2 full days will have passed, and even if there's another tanker last thing this morning it will still be 1 3/4 days since today's last tanker on Monday morning.

This is the tweet, sweary bits ***:-

So Penguins and Mira***hole and Backw**)dsman market manipulators on @LindonSouthEast none of your there's no oil s***e. And Mondays tankers are taking Saturdays oil bulls****r either

As for the originator of this thread and title 2 things

1 It had better not matter if they produce even 100,000 barrels now from the Portland as it should not affect long term production and cash now is probably imperative
2 it's amazing how often posters claimed production would be high and then claimed it was being choked back when production wasn't as they expected..

Pboo,

the oil heater has indeed been on site smoking away every now and then, we keep seeing pictures of it - you've just put up pictures of it on twitter, thanks.

In the picture of the site you have put up on twitter you can see one pipe from the well going into to the oil heater and one pipe exiting and going into the other skid mounted piece of kit to the right which has a few pipes leaving it - which is a separator.

The previous time a dewaxing treatment was mentioned was 16 Jan 2019 - but I suspect we don't get told every time they need to do it. PS I didn't say that was definitely what they were doing

Scallywag,

I think we all know that you need to put a positive spin on anything that is happening - but really, the heater working possibly because one of the wells requires dewaxing is hardly 'moving forward'.

In fact whilst the heater was working I see that twitter said the flare wasn't working - is that moving backward?

Zoom

in what way was Pboo correct? He said it was a treater heater - with all your well site knowledge (cough) even you should be able to spot the difference. PS the high pressure kit left ages ago.

Sometimes it is

Pboo,

Google is a great resource but not everything on google is what is happening on the HH site. Perhaps compare what a treater heater looks like - not like what was puffing away.

UKOG has always had separate heater and separator on the site plans and on site and nobody has called it (including UKOG on their site plans) a heater treater - for de waxing treatments a simple oil heater does the job.

Just because something exists it doesn't necessarily turn up on every well site.

Troll,

the oil heater is not a separator. It does what it says on the tin. Heats oil.

The separator does that - obviously.

One use (and UKOG has previously mentioned doing this on HH-1) is for de-waxing. This is circulated down the well. So no new oil would be produced so no gas, and there would be no flare, but is the flare stack not going - there's another well if one is being worked on.

Joey86

UKOG may be spending tens of thousands of pounds a day, but 10 tankers seen since Monday 9th suggests an average of just over 200bopd which at $30 a barrel is less than £10,000 a day - even with GBP/USD heading for parity.

PCS

Yes there are posters making outrageous claims. Some overly positive some overly negative, but strangely despite posting paragraphs of pompous rubbish it isn't your decision as to what can be posted, nor are you an unbiased arbiter. You have frequently posted views and opinions that have later proved highly optimistic either in terms of price or in terms of progress and conversely what you consider negative proved to be correct.

Constantly posting that the optimistic outcome will happen - you may be part of the problem - not the solution.

If your posts have encouraged posters to buy more shares and hold since arriving on this board in August (first post:RE: RE: UKOG price prediction 30/10/19: 20 Aug 2019 14:00 My prediction 3.5p and Seadoc to be banned.), but my 'negative' posts have made some think twice - which currently would be the better option.

One final point - this is a discussion board about UKOG - if you don't want to see posts about UKOG you're in the wrong place.

I see FOTH has gone ex-directory again, perhaps to clear out last nights meltdown on twitter. One tweet that had disappeared by this morning seemed to suggest that the on site invite was in fact an invitation to a telling off - I wondered why it wasn't mentioned.