Member Info for Pelle

A solid hedge through out 2019 done in last autumn would have put a solid ground for Enq. And a more relaxed time frame for adding additional hedges at good prices. Now 5 months later after autumn we back to stress with, production, RCF, oil prices and hedges.

Hi Hitman Even at 63k full year 67 usd I get FCF 275 million after capex 275 million. So yes it’s getting tighter with Kraken at half speed. But why the hell they didn’t hedge a lot at 80 in autumn? Instead they hedge less and at low floor. Given how important this year is, that was a major mistake and I was shocked when I saw it Dec update. Hopefully both Kraken and oil will recover in spring. It can change fast both

Hi KO, Yes, I agree. Its just fear of holding now. With just neutral report we will raise. On good report we will fly

Yeah, give them 50 million for their part. And after deal closed turn production up to 50k. Would be great

Hi Hitman,

Well, nothing makes sense anymore sitting at 16p after adding Magnus and reducing dept with 200-250 million usd.
I am just afraid Cairn could not revise production FC until Enquest have spoken.
To hit 30-35k average now this year including maintenance stop I guess we have to be at 35-40k on several months.

I like AB but at some point we also must question why we at 16p after adding Magnus and recucing debt.
If things was forseen in February they could have mention low Kraken prod in first months but higher after that and aim is to fix issues once for all. Now everything leads to speculation and rumours.

I have also not seen any capital market day / investor presentation the last years, it would have been great time do that during 2018 H2. Maybe AB feels numbers will speak for itself but so far we have not seen that.

Lets see what we get next week and I hope no bad surprises.
If things normal and no bad surprise share must rocket

Lol, Squif. Its same here, 5 months ago was looking forward to early retirement at 45 and now who knows 65? Honestly I think we can see a big spike up on report if Kraken again is forecasted at 30-35k. And no write down.

Squif, will you call in at telefon conference and ask where the 500 million is?

Hi Hitman, It was before reducing debt by approx 250 million usd also by today. I guess valuation now is pricing in a complete failure of Kraken. Will be very interesting next week and AB will be grilled. I hope we get Kraken back at 30k soon and 40k would be a dream

Hi Hitman and E, What was stated on DC4? One well producing already? And I think I saw in Cairns news, further drilling at Kraken 2020? What’s your take on that? I didn’t expect that

http://ravarumarknaden.se/bearish-macro-backdrop-but-bull-drivers-inch-it-higher/

Hi KO, Did they mention from when prod Kraken will increase? And when is the maintenance schedule?

Hi Soder, only this said?

Can someone please sum up what been said about Kraken production today? I saw enquest rns , no writing down. I been busy at work today so didn’t get chance follow everything

Hi Plet, Ok, had to start computer. So with 67k and 70 oil rest of 2019/20 FCF 350+500 and EBITDA 1000 million. With 75 oil FCF 425+600 and EBITDA 1100 million If they fix Kraken we can see 10k higher production next year. What you think about numbers? Would be interesting here is E and L3 have same numbers roughly?

Hi Jan and Pleth, I agree with Jan fc and they could reduce debt with approx 800 million over next 2 year. EBITDA around 1000 million. I followed numbers at 4-traders marketscreener also and sadly debt reduction always got postponed due to different things over last years. As Jan say also, another deal can also change numbers in positive

Chilting, yeah lol:-)
Never knows, you might get additional tasks calculating avarage wind speed.
Maybe some idea to bring up on AGM

Hi YoY

I think this have basically zero effect on anything, here says 7,5 billion usd some other article said 3,6 billion.
Its just that these shares spread over time and diffrent companies need find new holders.
And its not that much money

Sorry but I dont see the big deal here

Chilting, are you ramping 100% ? :-)
Didnt they start this morning so more like 12 hours

Hello L3

I also get around 63k based on kraken 20k ( 14 net) + 20k Magnus + 29k other fields based on 2018
Worst case senarion 63k at 65 usd I got approx 240 million FCF.

I think Hitman teory makes sense with maitenance Train by Train and extended work and connecting DC4.
Timing makes sense too, do it now in connection with DC4 and Magnus at full power until spring than they add new well at Magnus and production drops bit there.

So timing wise doing any maintenance to Kraken is perfect now.

If all this is planned, I agree it would have been much better inform us at last update.
And I agree it feels like everytime others get more and earlier information then us and its not right treat longterm investors like that.

Squif, its better he step up!