Member Info for Peelweight

Noting all the opinions above, I disagree

SG016, the second part of it - Covid trial at home has "Masking: Quadruple (Participant, Care Provider, Investigator, Outcomes Assessor)

This means that until it has run it's course they will not crack the code to unveil the outcomes. So the data will not be available at all until the last participant finishes their participation.

This is in direct contrast to ACTIV2. In that one, there is data oversight by the data monitoring committee intermittently and this will include members of the company. It is the way the protocol is written. The yanks have done it to (warp) speed up the decisions with in companies and for the US govt. This will for example enable earlier EUAs before certainty, which they have already done with a few flops. It is also to enable the companies to plan earlier for a move to P3 with USgov support and full funding to do so. IMO

PMJH please accept my most sincere thanks. You are a scholar and a gentleman. I really hope you return in the future but if not, that has been a top effort from a top man! Good luck

For the record I rate Vallance and Whitty very highly. We are lucky having them trying to steer the politicians. Tough for all concerned

Note Vallance £600K holding in GAK rather than AZ but hardly fully independent. He’ll have accrued them in his years as GSKs head of R and D. Hope he can remain objective enough!

Happy Friday all, Guinness popped and away to my usual - now sadly a Zoom “pub”

Mac,

OK, back of fag packet out to try and help

7-14 days ago, 375,000 tested positive

In last 7 days 28,000 admitted.

Arguably if about 7 days to admission from diagnosis (I know the average is a bit longer to admission but close as I can get) - 7.5% of those diagonsed admitted (this must be an overestimate as I can't get data for purely the week that was 10 days earlier than the week of admissions noted above and the rate of diagnosis was ballooning then)

We know from

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England

that 192K out of 295K of all COVID admissions in England were 65yrs+ (65%) since start of COVID

So the 7.5% which admittedly is probably an overestimate, must be higher for those over 65 at least. I cannot say that those 50+ with co-morbidities would be nearly as high but they were picked for a reason so may not be too much lower.

Long way to say that your assumption of 30% admitted will not be wildly wrong. I would have guessed 15-20% but guessed mind!

Thanks HarChris, that has to be medically sensible. Unlikely to be a one-hit vaccine solution - persuasion of enough of the population and vaccine pressure on the virus to mutate.

Thanks Org

Also, the DMC issue is certainly in play for the P3 though. If strong statistical evidence found by DMC after say 400 cases, they will advise the researchers to pull the plug on the study if there is an indisputable and clinically important difference to placebo. EUA would follow quickly and later a full license for this indication. Other indications (COPD/broad spectrum anti-viral etc) would be subject to further P3 trials later, indeed COPD needs a few patients to finish it's P2 too if I remember correctly!

Org, personally I think they will have an accurate handle on the process of completing data collection, analysing it and writing it up enough to present it initially as a RNS that they can back up later with a peer-review publication.

I suspect they know it will take until 1st April to do that, and that it may take longer. This sort of study (P2 smallish 120 patient) is not the type that they will have a DMC peeking under the bonnet earlier as the numbers would never be notable enough, earlier to say much. The main purpose of this arm of the P2 is to prove it can be done remotely by courier/telemedicine to peoples homes with remote video explanation and medical/nursing oversight. If proved deliverable, and hopefully supported by some encouraging data (likely just trends rather than statistical significance, as numbers so small?) it supports the NIHs suggested US home trial IMO

I do not believe anything will leak out of this trial prior to Q2 sadly

Sorry all. I just knew that Dr Luigi Boccardi had mentioned an inhaled interferon that he was to start recruiting for a couple of weeks when PMJH put on a video a week ago and he works at KU so I was hoping that might have been him getting started and announcing. I believe ACTIV have different arms of their study though so hope it isn't bad news. Prob not as MABs aren't inhaled, or interferons!

Noted, thanks HarChris

Now I certainly don't suggest anyone break the regulatory barriers that come up when you try to open it but KU (presumably Kansas Uni?) has a new article when you search the term "activ-2 clinical trial" on google and look at the "news" tab. I make it 7th down (the Derby Informer from 1 day ago). Looks like they might have announced their two study drugs?

We are excluded from opening the link in this jurisdiction, fair enough but I wonder if this will lead to another RNS at 7am??

And a good geographic spread for ACTIV 2 sites which could be useful as the rates are lumpy in different states, and it changes over time.

Yes please, I'll bring the drams

I'm in once this sh**storm over!

Thanks everyone, I am grateful. HL won’t open any Co accounts at the moment, since the pandemic

I’ll try ii

Can I ask if anyone has a recommendation for a Ltd Company share account please? I am maxed out personally so hope to add SNG indirectly. Is the ii one any good, the admin looks straightforward? Thanks

Success has many fathers, but failure is an orphan!

CityTTrader - agree in full

Beforegolf. I agree, a huge feather in the cap being on their radar and subsequently attracting 10% ownership inside their investment trust.

I agree, and am not bothered at all by him seeing enough upside to take the 10% position despite classing it as "high risk". It is high compared to many of their other big holdings in AZ etc, fair enough, we all know that.