Here in Spain masks but be worn wherever 2M distance cannot be maintained.
Masks are mandatory inside all shops including supermarkets and in busy outside areas like town centers.
The advice on masks has changed for the reasons given in the OP.
In the early days of the pandemic we were told that masks didn’t give protection. Obviously that’s not true and doesn’t make sense but they didn’t want people thinking they could behave as they wished because they had a mask on. They needed a compliant population. Now we are allowed out again that’s changed and we are told masks protect us and we must wear them.
The same will be true with immunity. The time will come when we are told that antibodies provide sufficient resistance and immunity and will protect us. That will be after the data from 6 months to a year or so of repeated mass Antibody testing has been analysed to measure levels and longevity of antibodies in infected patients.
One step at a time. First mass antibody testing. Then data analysis. Then digital immunity passports next year.
GLA.
The immunity subject is shrouded in secrecy because Govs need a compliant population to adhere to regulations. They don’t want a population that’s difficult to control, ie a large percentage refusing to adhere to rules because they are immune. They need the data from mass antibody testing. They don’t want the rebellious consequences of those who test positive refusing to socially distance or refusing to go back into lockdown if required.
Rather than rubbish posted by traders on here, if you want to know what the scientists findings are on immunity then read the key findings at the end of the scientific paper I posted on the 14th. Here it is again.....
Coronavirus antibody immunity scientific paper14 Jun 2020 06:57
“A systematic review of antibody mediated immunity to coronaviruses: antibody kinetics, correlates of protection, and association of antibody responses with severity of disease“
“Key findings:
We have presented a broad, comprehensive review of multiple aspects of the literature on antibody immunity to coronaviruses. We identified a number of key findings. The median time to detection was similar across different antibodies for SARS-CoV-1 (12 days; IQR 8-15.2 days) and SARS-CoV-2 (11 days; IQR 7.25-14 days), but longer for MERS-CoV (16 days; IQR 13-19 days). Most long-term studies found that IgG waned over time (typically detectable up to at least a year) while others found detectable levels of IgG three years post symptoms onset. Antibody kinetics varied across the severity gradient with longer durations of detectable antibody associated with more severe symptoms. Human challenge studies with HCoV indicate that serum and mucosal immune responses (serum IgG, IgA, neutralizing titer, mucosal IgA) provide possible correlates of protection from infection and disease. However, repeat human challenge experiments with single HCoV suggest individuals can be infected with the same HCoV one year after first challenge, but with possible lower severity. There is cross-reactivity within but minimal reactivity between Alpha- and Beta-CoVs. While endemic HCoVs rarely induce cross-reactive antibodies against emerging HCoVs, SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV stimulate antibodies induced by prior HCoV infections.”
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20065771v1.full.pdf
“The level of selling in design freeze will kill the share price short term.”
The only people who care about the short term share price are traders. They’ll go. Their stock will be bought.
Nothing to see here.
Just a country of 1.3 Billion people embarking on a national program of mass blood fingerpick rapid antibody testing lol
*Rocket Emojis* ROFL.
And immunity passports.
https://m.economictimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/rapid-antibody-testing-expanded-is-india-looking-at-covid-immune-certificates/videoshow/76571698.cms
September is autumn. Mid summers day is 21st June. August is the last month of summer. August is about 34 days away but in any case the REACT2 study is part of the next stage, PHE approval, not design freeze. PHE England are assessing the test package for ease of use by Joe Public. Nothing to do with achieving the accuracy bar as that looks nailed.
General Meeting to approve the placing is 10th July.
Nothing new so far has contradicted the current stated timeline of end of June.
Nothing’s certain. There could be hold ups but not seeing anything as yet.
That said, we shouldn’t try to sugar coat it. If we don’t hear by end June it wouldn’t be great. It would be a blow to PR, not good for the company, there would be a bit of a sell off as it would change the risk/reward profile. MMs would take advantage of it and take the price down and the £3Mill open offer at 40p would be less widely taken up.
I don’t agree with those saying it doesn’t matter if it goes into July. It will. SP won’t tank but it would cause volatility, traders would love it and that’s what they’re all hoping for. That’s why they’re on the board. There’s not enough trading for them to make money currently. They want to cause some volatility. If there’s no design freeze by Tuesday 30th June next week they’ll get their volatility but not before IMO.
It’s just been on the main BBC morning news at 05:48.
Highly accurate rapid home test.
This is the REACT study. Assessing the RTC test for ease of use against others. It is part of the PHE validation process.
PHE validation Is another step after design freeze.
Somebody has obviously worded up dumbo BBC that their FUD yesterday was around the Roche tests and the game changer is coming.
Expect more news coverage. Lovely.
For anybody bogged down in the science around antibodies, immunity and vaccines, this short NHS piece about the yearly flu vaccine and how it works is very relevant to the situation around Covid 19.
The flu vaccine works by injecting the body with a deactivated form of the virus that stimulates the bodies own immune system to produce antibodies and build immunity from infection when exposed to the actual virus. If the antibodies our immune systems produce did not give immunity to the flu virus then the vaccine would obviously not work.
It’s amazing that the same scientists and media fudsters like the BBC and Daily Mail constantly push the news about an imminent vaccine coming but also push a narrative that antibodies do not provide immunity. The two positions are contradictory. Have a five minute read, it’s only a short piece......
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vaccinations/how-flu-vaccine-works/
Pillars 3,4 and 5 of gov five pillar plan ....
3) Develop blood testing to help know if people across the UK have the right antibodies and so have high levels of immunity to coronavirus;
4.) Conduct UK-wide surveillance testing to learn more about the spread of the disease and help develop new tests and treatments; and
5.) Create a new National Effort for testing, to build a mass-testing capacity for the UK at a completely new scale.
Once widespread testing is available, we will prioritise repeated testing of critical key workers, to keep them safe and make sure that they do not spread the virus.
Over time, plans announced today will also see increasing focus on testing to see if people have already had the virus, to identify if they have the antibodies that will give them immunity against catching it again. This science is new and developing, but the aim is for a successful test that can be rolled out at scale, that could allow critical workers - and then the wider population - to return to work and their daily lives.“
This directly from Gov website. Don’t lose sight of this!.....
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/health-secretary-sets-out-plan-to-carry-out-100000-coronavirus-tests-a-day
1.) Whatever FUD there is around antibodies and immunity nobody has yet produced a recovered patient with a verified repeat infection. Globally. Six months in. Nobody.
2.) If there is no immunity resulting from antibody production then there can not be a working vaccine.
3.) If there was not significant value here the market would have dumped the share price back to placing price or below.
4.) Omega would not have cut away £8Million worth of allergy business if they thought the Covid business was going to be short lived. To make that commitment the bod must see the Covid business having a longevity of five years or more IMO.
5.) This stock will massively rerate to an Mcap multiples of what it is now over the next 6-24 months.
Patience will pay. GLA.
Exactly. That would be production margin so tax and production costs need to be deducted but not raw materials as Mologic supply them. The Mologic Elisa test is already CE marked and being validated by PHE. UK gov actually paid some development costs for this test and it’s over 99% accurate. “As good as humanly possible”. It’s a top class product.
Omega have already produced initial validation batches at Littleport.
The agreement is an MTA, material transfer agreement. Mologic supplying all raw materials, omega manufacturing.
Mologic are a charity financed by Gates foundation so the margin not that important for them but I suppose they may use profit from Elisa tests they sell in the uk to subsidize those supplied to third world.
There’s no absolute figures yet but I can’t see omega dedicating a large lump of production capacity to these tests for anything less than 20-30% production margin even with raw materials supplied. Especially as omega just wrote off £8million of allergy business to concentrate on more profitable areas like these Covid Elisa tests.
After that they aren’t going to make them for buttons so 20-30% production margin is reasonable with about half that chewed up by operating costs.
Only a fag packet estimate currently but it’s a deal with a lot of potential.
My guess is Monday but whatever happens at the latest there will be a positive announcement by next Thursday 2nd July. Otherwise private investors won’t take up the open offer and the company will lose both credibility and the £3million funding that is already allocated for expansion.
My guess is tomorrow or Monday but yes, anything is possible but a lack of news by 3rd would be a disaster for the company and I can’t see it happening. Not impossible but highly unlikely. Lots going on in the background.
£7 mill of the placing stock hit the market today but so much buying that the amount being flipped hasn’t took the sp down, especially with the media FUD this morning. If we were going further toward 40 then it would have happened this morning.
All up from here and if there’s no news tomorrow then it’s friday and I’d expect a 10-20% FOMO boost Friday afternoon. 55-60 close Friday for a big Monday announcement. Lovely. GLA.
Strange in the extreme that people heavily invested in Avacta and over there ramping it as billions are on here trying to insinuate that there’s no lasting value in Covid testing.
Total waste of time discussing anything with traders just talking their own book.
Covid testing will be with us for a number of years even after a vaccine is found well into the future. The Mologic deal is for an initial period of three years.
Avacta Mcap £325Million on very little of substance. NCYT undervalued for their income but they only have a lab test currently and it’s not seen as ground breaking or unique. Lab testing is a crowded market so not attracting the speculative money but expecting Ncyt to re rate this year over coming months.
ODX will have a lot of upside once production of several unique rapid testing products kicks in.
£300Mill Mcap within a few months is a realistic possibility and from here downside risk is very negligible.
GLA and DYOR
FF. “Without covid how much do you value the business at?”
Well that’s a stupid pointless discussion isn’t it. What would Ncyt or AVCT be valued at without Covid? What the world be like without Covid?
Pointless. Covids here and the company have made clear their strategy to make money from it. Not got time to engage in silly discussions of “what if everything was different”. Pointless.
Raharh If Mologic subsidize the tests sold into Africa using their funding from the Gates foundation then that’s up to them. They are a charitable organization.
Omega, being a business won’t be supplying cheap tests into Africa. Omega take a 60% margin on the visitect cd4 HIV tests they sell into Nigeria and other African nations. The cd4 sells into Africa for a reasonable price of about $6 so I’d expect CV19 tests to be similar. Probably more expensive in UK and the west unless they are subsidized by the government.
But yes, at 2 Million tests a week even at 50p per test it would still mean £50mill per year which is unheard of for a company with a £100mill Mcap so agreed, this Mcap won’t last for long even in the most conservative of sceanarios.
Production capacity increase is all in the presentation.
The Visitect CD4 test retails for $6 at a 60% margin.
The 46,000 Elisa tests per day in the Mologic contract sell for £30-£40. Elisa tests more complex and expensive. That will be 30% margin minimum. The contract to manufacture mologics tests is 3 years.
Before this raise the company had already expanded the Alva site to increase production. They had a plan in place to expand Littleport as well. Combined production was estimated at 1 Million tests per week. That’s now doubled after the raise to 2 Million tests per week across all sectors.
Most of these tests will sell for £3-6 with margin of 60% which is standard across the industry. Talk of 50p per test is bollix.
There is a reason why the top Mcap projected estimate in the Finncap research piece on their site is £980Million. That’s why. Just half that would be nice eventually but I see a £300Million Mcap by oct/nov as very realistic.
I doubt we’ll get any excess allocation at all. I expect it to be largely taken up. Who wouldn’t? Free money at this sp.
I’ll be surprised if I get more than 10% extra than basic allocation.
As we scale up production and have an increasing number of RNS on margin and sales this stock will gradually rerate over coming months.
I’m expecting a £300Mill+ Mcap by winter Based on very conservative margins. Then further if some big numbers are conveyed to the market.
A sure winner. GLA.