Member Info for pbe1973

"This needs to be paid in just over 9 months time (1st Jan 2027). "

GPT thread ( with all background docs on arbitration uploaded) view.....

The Exxon Prepayment Facility (amount + “1 Jan 2027” deadline)

This is where the conjecture looks most questionable.

Savannah’s March 2025 investor deck shows the Chad/Cameroon “Prepayment facility” split as US$98.6m non-recourse and US$36.0m recourse, both with maturity year 2027 (and pricing 3M SOFR + 7.0%).

That totals US$134.6m, not ~$170m.

Savannah Energy

The US$170m figure is the original size of the Exxon prepayment facility at inception (Dec 2022 completion materials describe “up to US$170 million”).

But it doesn’t follow that the outstanding balance will be “~$170m” in 2027 — the company’s later disclosure suggests it’s been reduced.

Savannah Energy

I can’t confirm from public Savannah docs I pulled here that the maturity is specifically 1 January 2027 (as opposed to “in 2027” / a particular month/day). What Savannah has published in the investor deck is “2027,” not the exact date.

No worries - NM

They just came back after my request clarification on timing:

"Savannah appointed PKF Littlejohn LLP as its auditors in Q4 2025.

It had been previously referenced that we intended to appoint auditors in Q4 2025 and, at the time of their appointment last year, we accordingly updated our website to reflect that."

I emailed Savannah IR because, as mentioned below, the website lists PKF Littlejohn LLP under 'Auditor' but there wasn't any market announcement confirming the appointment, and given the past audit delays I wanted clarity on FY25 timing.

IR replied:

“Savannah appointed PKF Littlejohn LLP as its auditors last year and this is shown on the advisers section of the website: {they inserted the link}

We had intended to appoint auditors in Q4 2025, and we updated the website accordingly.

We can confirm that the FY2025 audit timetable is on track to meet AIM reporting requirements.”

I’ve gone back to ask for the effective appointment date (the wording is a bit ambiguous between “appointed last year” vs “intended to appoint in Q4 2025”) and whether they plan to confirm it formally via the market, just to remove any doubt.

Do we know scenario would they be able to orchestrate the institutional holders to vote for de-listing?

According to GPT it would be through:

a) public offer terms (premium/structure/conditions), and/or

b) a structured rollover option that is handled within a takeover framework.

Can't see 'a' happening as even at 100% premium to where we are now as they are just as underwater as a lot of us PIs .

Don't know enough to comment on 'b'

What’s actually new vs repeat

New (incremental)

Cash collections in Jan-26: ~$64m. That’s a strong monthly print and the only hard, fresh number in there.

Process milestones: confirmation that the relationship agreement with NIPCO Plc is now executed (Dec 30 RNS said “proposed/subject to consultation”).

Broker line-up: addition of Tennyson Securities as joint broker (small signal: gearing up for broader investor outreach/liquidity).

Largely repeat

The Oct-25 operational/financial run-through (production, Accugas facility refi pathway, Uquo compression done, Uquo NE well timing, SIPEC/ Stubb Creek ramp, arbitration status, buyback termination rationale) is mostly the same as the Dec 30 text—just re-packaged.

A disclaimer does not assert the numbers are wrong or that fraud occurred—it means the auditor lacked reliable evidence to decide either way. The onus now shifts to the company (and its incoming auditor) to remediate controls and provide stronger audit evidence.

The line about being “unable to conclude whether there are any material misstatements in the Strategic Report or Directors’ Report” follows from the disclaimer. When auditors can’t opine on the financials due to pervasive evidence limitations, they typically also can’t confirm the narrative sections are consistent with those financials. That’s not saying those sections are misstated; it’s saying the auditor can’t confirm they aren’t.

On going concern, the auditor did not obtain sufficient evidence to support management’s basis. That raises the bar for clearer liquidity forecasts, tangible progress on receivables collections, and execution on refinancing.

More detailed, specific references to the fundraise:

Initial Explanation:

"...the clear message we received from those advisors that we should price both the primary and the secondary at the same price. That was also a key issue for many of our institutional shareholders and that the secondary should price the primary. So that was the structure and the nature of how, of, of of how this was, was done and the, the trade that set the price was not aware there was a primary, if that makes sense."

Justification for the Structure:

"...in terms of the pricing, the position that we had in discussion with the shareholders, but most importantly from our legal and regulatory advisors, is the secondary should price the primary and that they should be done at the same price. And that's. And that's what was done."

Emphasis on Strategic Investors:

"We were interested in strategic investors who wanted to invest directly into the company." This relates to the primary offering where new shares were issued, and the company sought out specific investors who could bring strategic value.

Rationale for the Timing:

"There was always going to have to be a secondary transaction as we unsuspended because we needed to deal with buyers and sellers." This highlights that the secondary offering was necessary to create liquidity for existing shareholders after the long suspension period.

Overall Impact:

"I think the company is fundamentally stronger for what we have for those transactions."

Questions and Answers

• Why invest in renewables? - View power as power, focus on risk-adjusted returns.

• Why not focus on Nigeria standalone? - Prioritize Nigeria, but pursue material opportunities elsewhere.

• What is the financing market like? - Good access to equity and debt capital.

• Why not commit to the business for a rolling two-year period? - Commitment demonstrated through financial investment.

• What is the talent market like? - Able to attract and retain top talent.

• Why not relist in the US? - Focus on delivering on priorities, may consider relisting in the future.

• Is the UK government supportive? - Government policy is not helpful, but individual officials are supportive.

• How is the political environment in Niger? - Active discussions with stakeholders, confident in progressing projects.

• What are you most excited about and worried about? - Excited about cash collections and acquisitions, worried about keeping top talent motivated.

• How was the deal priced? - Secondary priced the primary, both at the same price.

• What is the fundamental equity value for your stock? - Refer to the value slide and analyst research.

• Can you give more of an indication vis-à-vis your plans for South Sudan? - No longer pursuing the transaction as a reverse takeover, may pursue in another format.

• What is the time frame for First Oil in Niger? - Need to reach agreements with stakeholders first.

• What is your communication strategy going forward? - Significant news flow expected.

• Do you have a sufficient hedge in place? - FX drop clause in gas sales agreement mitigates FX losses.

• Will the company commit to not doing more reverse takeovers? - Not ruled out, but will be structured to avoid suspension.

• What is the likelihood of announcing another new acquisition in the next six months? - Deals are in the pipeline.

• Can you give a breakdown of the gross debt? - Provided in the presentation.

• Are you considering partnering with a Chinese company in Niger? - No deal is imminent, but open to partnerships.

• How will you increase cash collections? - Work with principal customers.

• What are the conditions for the refinancing? - No significant barriers.

• Are you able to share any public info with respect to what Andrew Knott and other management hold within the wider capital structure, Savannah Energy? - All information is in the annual accounts.

• Why do a capital raise now? - Strategic investors and acquisition facility is for acquisitions only.

• What is the impact of the receivable balance going down? - Could release over $100 million of cash to PLC.

• How do you see the future potential of Accugas? - Steady business with potential for growth.

• As our debt is now in Naira, if the Naira goes up in value versus the US dollar, the value of our debt goes up? - Statistically unlikely.

• A little more detail - Niger Oil going forward? - Next steps are well testing

M&A Market Dynamics

• Upstream oil and gas:

o Super majors divesting assets past their peak production levels.

o Opportunity for motivated buyers.

o 16 billion barrels of net commercial reserves still held by super majors in Africa.

• Power:

o $10-15 billion of power assets for sale in the next five years.

o IEA estimates $25 billion per annum of incremental investment needed in Africa.

o Success rate of power projects reaching financial close is only 10%.

Capital Deployment

• Long-term growth mentality.

• Pursue multiple business development opportunities.

• Maintain a consistent and disciplined approach to project returns.

• Allocate capital to the highest risk-adjusted return investment opportunities.

Example of a Successful Deal

• Entry into Nigeria:

o Total revenues increased by 85%.

o Reserves increased organically by 38%.

o Unit operating and admin costs reduced by 41%.

o Drilling costs reduced by 22%.

o Incremental investment of $1.3 million with a payout of $16.3 million.

o CIPIC acquisition expected to add $150 million of incremental NPV.

o Refinancing with significant potential.

CIPIC Acquisition

• All regulatory consents received.

• Expected to increase production and reserves significantly.

• Fully funded on a non-recourse basis by Standard Bank of South Africa.

Market Conditions

• UK market has been difficult.

• Energy space in the UK has underperformed the US market.

• Sentiment switch regarding renewables.

• Opportunity in the power sector.

Board and Management Team

• Experienced board with diverse expertise.

• Detailed CVs provided in the presentation.

Additional Information

• Annual report with shareholder letter and guest articles.

• Research notes from various analysts.

Summary

• Purpose-driven business focused on projects that matter.

• Strong financial performance and growth potential.

• Industry-leading sustainability performance.

• Committed to delivering value to shareholders.

Company Overview

• African-focused British independent energy company.

• Listed on the AIM Market of the London Stock Exchange.

• Strong track record of growth and safe operations.

• $3.4 billion of future contracted revenues.

• 2024 production: 23,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

• Principal assets in Nigeria: two oil and gas fields, pipeline network, gas processing business.

• Other activities: oil development in Niger, renewable energy projects in Niger and Cameroon, arbitration in Chad and Cameroon.

Value of Assets

• Accugas business: $743 million (pre-debt).

• Eco Gas business: $287 million.

• Existing interest in Stub Creek oil field: $112 million.

• Interest acquired from Sinopec: $194 million.

• R3 East development in Niger: $210 million.

• Exploration prospects in Niger: $4.40 per barrel (if successful).

• Receivable asset in Nigeria: over $500 million.

• Claims in Chad and Cameroon: over $1 billion.

• Renewable energy portfolio: up to 686 megawatts.

Recent Developments

• Proposed acquisition of SAIPEX.

• Debt refinancing on Accugas.

• Conversion of licenses to petroleum mining licenses.

• Compression project on the UCO field.

• Acquisition and subsequent expropriation of Chad Cameroon assets.

• Sale of 10% of pipeline asset to SNH.

• Work on Bini Awara project.

• Reworked R3 East Development Plan.

• Niger Binyan export pipeline operational.

• Agreements with IFC and DFC for Tarka wind farm.

• Agreements for solar projects in Niger.

• Potential South Sudan acquisition.

Future Plans

• Accelerate cash collections in Nigeria.

• Complete CIPIC acquisition.

• Complete Stub Creek expansion project.

• Arbitration hearings and award decision.

• Additional drilling on the Eagle field.

• Discussions to recommence activity on R3 East project.

• Pursue thermal and renewable energy projects.

• Deliver more M&A deals.

Cash Flow

• Simplified indicative five-year annual cash flow waterfall.

• Split between gas and oil businesses.

• Assumptions and details provided in the presentation.

Debt Capital Structure

• Savannah is well financially structured.

• Only 6% of debt is recourse to Savannah Energy Plc.

• Non-recourse debt sits almost exclusively as an obligation of subsidiary companies.

• New acquisition facility for up to $200 million.

It's individualised - so you can't share. I'll post a summary on here in a bit.

Https://news.sky.com/story/london-listed-consultant-alpha-fmc-draws-takeover-interest-13126764

'Sky News and Mark Kleinman' - according to someone on A D V F N - I can't find anything on it

Also, that's not withstanding shorts below 0.5%

I have shorts as GLG 0.76% and BlackRock 0.68% - either way, as you say, don't make it easy on them

Thanks for that

Yes, can someone provide an email contact please, can only find a generic one on the website - thanks in advance

Happysparrow - I'm reluctant to further drive this excellent BB off topic, but.....

You've spoken about the nature of research and in my mind it's about considering both sides of the argument and making an informed decision, not finding evidence to reinforce an initial belief.

With that in mind, for balance, can you let us know what the most compelling piece(s) of research you've read on the vaccine that offers the counter argument as to its safety and efficacy - just so we can consider the information you've posted in that context.

Blimey - bargain shares.

Brakes off now hopefully.

Is that what the series of huge trades in the past 30 mins were?