The SP in the short term (12 months) is anyones guess, but I can see £5 as likely, I don't think £6 is impossible, but in the near term (2 years) I think £10 unlikely.
If fuel prices continue to increase at pace there will come a point where its just not affordable, I don't know at what point that happens or what it would look like, but I do know I don't want to find out.
I believe £2 a litre has been reported recently, thats not good but its manageable despite the price increases it causes to other products and services.
What happens at £3 a litre, or £4 or £5 etc. At some point it is just not affordable whether we 'need' it or not.
I intend to hold BP. long term and hopefully see it transform into a renewable energy giant, but if I see the tipping point nearing I will reluctantly sell, but at that point I think I will probably have bigger things to worry about.
VII
Thank you for that link, much appreciated.
Just to make sure I understand it correctly, there are 673,218 shares shorted on 31st May.
I don't short stocks so have a limited understanding, although I do understand the concept.
CUSN have 285.85 million shares in issue, it looks like a very small % of the stock being shorted.
On 15th Nov 2021 it looks like 2.993 million shares were shorted and you could agrue the SP fell by 0.42p the following day, although the SP appears to be within a normal trading range for the stock.
Perhaps someone with a better understanding than me could comment on the impact on the stock even with only a small % being shorted.
VII
How can you see there are short positions, it seems a poor pick for shorting, it would be outside most traders risk/reward zone.
Looks more like profit taking to me, the rinse and repeat brigade.
Although in fairness this looks like a reasonable candidate for a few trades.
I dont understand the suggestion that ZNWD will be in production next year as stated in the article 'output is due to begin next year'.
The last update I saw from Anton Du Plessis on Youtube suggested 2025 as a potential production date and I would assume he would know better than most.
Any idea where TMF obtained their information.
TMF writers are at times painfully lacking in their research.
Mostly its the rising tide lifting all ships.
It matters not, the SP ups and downs are just background noise to what is a solid long term stock with a reasonable dividend that is well covered.
TinkerT
I apologise, I just realised my post is smug, and thats not what I intended.
I should have just said I think BP is a very good stock and would be unlikly to reduce my holding.
I know exactly what it is like to buy in at a higher price only to see it fall and read other posters stating how they bought at super low prices.
ATB
I've only held BP since September 2020. In that time period to date I'm showing a 65.3% profit including unrealised gains at current SP, dividends, and 1 sell/buy.
I can only see me increasing my holding if the prices dips low enough to make it worthwhile.
If it results in a drop in the SP today, I will probsbly add to my holding. I bought another 200 shares yesterday below £18, and I see anything below that price as good value at the moment.
I have now got limited free cash left to invest but if it goes to £17, I will add another 200.
If it drop further next week I will again add more.
SSE is an extraordinary green energy play and I will continue to add when appropriate.
I suspect that many companies will now think carefully about any RNS they release with terms like 'profits exceeded forecasts'.
Profit has now it would seem become a dirty word to be spat out at companies in defiance as I hold out my hand for support from our caring government.
Well it looks like the 'windfall tax' gates have opened on oilies, and its not just the one off hit I was expecting. The only silver lining is the tax breaks announced alongside the WT for investment. SSE and many other green energy companies are heavy on investment, so could be left alone, or at least the impact minimised.
Its very unsettling though as its set a precedent, a company in hard times is on their own, but if you make too much money we will want a bigger slice of the pie.
Why on earth would any business want to trade in that environment, the legislators have in my opinion made a bad choice with the WT if they want companies to come to the UK, and I think they know it hence the attractive tax breaks to soften the blow.
Perhaps if they really wanted to help they would reduce tax on fuels, which is aimed solely at the consumer, and directly increases the cost of all products through increased transport, heating and manufacturing costs.
Jwd222
I suspect not in the foreseeable future now the WT has been announced.
I would expect a drop in the SP today.
Its not all bad news though, the tax breaks on investment could be used to good effect and I suspect BP. are already looking at this.
It depends on how smart long term investors are, personally I would be happy to see a reduction in the divi and huge spending on development for the next couple of years to maximise the tax breaks.
Tax will reduce the long term value of the company, once paid the funds are lost and the company is devalued by that same amount, but if invested for future growth those same funds will increase company value and future profits. the only problem is to ensure that the investment is well planned to maximise that growth. It is possible that although its difficult to see, long term it could help BP transition to green energy faster and maybe even at less cost.
I have no doubt I'm over simplyfying things, just thinking out loud really. BP is a huge beast with some very clever people working for it, I have confidence they will make the best of an unfair situation.
I had a very small holding here, and added another 10500 shares @ 21.9p first thing today. I initally had some troouble filling the order but eventually it went through.
This still only represents less than 1% of my portfolio, but may add more as I see the risk lower.
There is a suggestion of a windfall tax.
I think its doubtful, in fact the whole idea of taxing good companies in excess of normal taxes seems ill advised.
I added another 100 @ £17.07. If it drops below £17 I may add more.
Its raised my average to £14.51 on 1300 shares, but I doubt there is much chance of me averaging down.
This has been a solid stock for me and I intended to increase my holding at some point, this just forced the issue.
driftking27
No I'm sorry you are correct, one of the information websites I use is way off, when I double checked through one of my other sources it highlighted the error.
Sigma1
Nice average.
ADM is a permanent stock in my portfolio, but my average is way over yours.
I hold 1500 shares at an average including costs of £24.7233.
I aim to keep the overall average below £25 and add accordingly when funds permit.
Insurance (life and general) are two particularly unloved sectors at the moment so for me a good time to buy.
I also hold LGEN, DLG, AV, and PHNX.
I am too heavy in insurance I know, so will probably offload PHNX and DLG in the next few years as the SP picks up.
LGEN, AV and ADM are keepers unless something unforeseen changes.
This morning has been a market down day, so added another 300 shares at £21.67503.
This looked too much of a bargain to miss as a long term holder.
RIO has a market cap $12.9 billion greater than BHP, I think a buyout very doubtful.
I've only cast a quick eye over this, but am going to hold off buying any more of this stock at the moment.
My main concern is that there are currently 285,850,000 shares in this stock in circulation.
It appears at face value of the RNS Number : 1565G dated 28 March 2022, that a substantial number of new shares in this stock will be created, diluting current investor holdings.
While I do not see this as negative, since it will introduce substantial funds into the company to allow the development to continue at pace, and is the expected nature of this type of investment. I do think in the short term it may lead to a further small dip in the SP.
Of course one could argue that the influx of the substantial funds offsets the increase in shares.
If I wait and obtain a lower price it simply de-risks my investment to some degree.
Of course if I'm wrong and it goes up I miss out, but none the less its the decision I have come to at the moment. This week may provide a little more clarity.
Trek
Thank you from me also.
You are one of the very few people who have given reasoned discussion on these boards, while showing patience and understanding when confronted by naive questions.
I have regretably now closed my position in GLO, although I see investors are stll buying the stock, not sure why.
Anyway good luck to you Trek.