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Falks, HB, LTI, TP, J46, DC, etc, etc, etc - just in case and it is already the start of it so Merry Xmas and a Happy, Healthy and hopefully Prosperous 2021 for you all and your families especially but also generally to all on here also - just in case I don't come back this week, etc (very busy and might not be very pretty on here these coming few days, etc "LOL") - keep the faith peeps and we'll hopefully soon get through this as best possible and come out the other side with a decent shout in every possible way (Health, Wealth, Happiness, etc)!
Keep well and keep taking care - all my best, Carlos ...................!
No lower than 34p hopefully today and then tread water until deal announced hopefully by evening of 24th and hopefully Oxford Vaccine approved by 31st at the latest and by then with most negativity priced in already, the recovery can begin even if as I said earlier will be slow and painful for a large part of 2021 and only really pick up into late 2021 or more likely 2022!
Massive shame and even concern regarding the new strain and also new level Tier 4 imposition but looking at it glass half full - good to see they're finally trying to get on top of it again and HOPEFULLY AND FINALLY AND VITALLY OXFORD VACCINE APPROVAL AROUND THE CORNER - indeed maybe in just 8-10 days time so can start getting fully rolled out the 1st proper week of the new year - here's hoping anyway!
On BREXIT - deal to come soon enough - not considering any other outcome ATM - they both know it makes sense and that will surely prove to be important enough to get it over the line - great boost finally especially ATM given CV's current trajectory and will finally start to bring closure to bloody Brexit once and for all (most certainly hope so again anyway)!
Looking over the horizon - the future should be bright from say 6 months on from here so basically the Summer even if it's going to be a very tough ride these coming months and at the beginning of that "bright" future, etc it's going to probably be a slow but at least hopefully steady ascent which build and build upon until we get some real momentum hopefully for 2022 right from it's start - GOD ALMIGHTY WILLING!
Keep well gents and hang in there - as Boris tends to day as sure as day follows night - eventually we'll get through all this and get back to some kind of decent normality - can't come quick enough - indeed the sooner the bloody better!
And even still decent news as regards 2021 as we head into it - positiveness at the moment overall no matter how small it is, is still a great thing! I'll take an average of 1% rise over the coming 12 months considering where we're coming from and what we are still dealing with right now and then on top still the final aftermath - any positive number now and in the near future especially is extremely welcome and to be respected even lauded - keep it coming and bring it on!
Still hoping for a deal - maybe not this weekend but by Sunday 20th/Monday 21st if they can garner enough positiveness by Sunday night to continue talks/negotiations for another week - but rock and a hard place - UK sovereignty, etc vs EU protection of it's single market, etc or so they both say ANYWAY .................!
I'm hanging in for now - obviously Brexit is massive these coming days/weeks, etc but would be nice if certain smaller things like Pfizer/Moderna getting approved in USA over the coming week and rolled out immediately, Oxford getting approved in UK also in coming week and again getting rolled out immediately - that should hopefully be quite big actually and not just for the UK but also Worldwide given it's simpler credentials vs the USA options, US stimulus approved before Xmas, etc, etc, etc (indeed we've now already had the DIVI news which in theory was decent but in practise offers no real term help pretty much whatsoever as just explained in my previous - at least that's my reading of it) - in the short term of the next 3 weeks or so - then all the conundrums that next year will throw up especially economically wise but also politically, etc!
£3bn profit 2019, if we're very lucky £0.5-1bn profit 2020 - means £3.5-4bn profit over the 2 years!
25% of such = £0.875-1bn.
The interim divi paid out in 2019 was 1.12p which amounted to roughly £0.8bn.
That means all they've got to play with will be £100-200m which effectively means nothing and forget going down the route of 0.2% of risk-weighted assets because with that there'd be zilch to pay!!!!
At least that's my reading of it so means nothing to consider until well into next Summer depending on how things go 1st half of 2021 but for sure nothing decent until 2022 almost certainly!!!!
If there's a deal and depending on the detail as discussed earlier - I'd expect a more conservative 10-15% rise as occurred roughly on 9th Nov with the first proper vaccine success news (but I won't complete discount a 20% rise as you never do now do you LOL)!
Now if somehow it goes haywire then yes I could easily see a 20%+ drop no problem whatsoever but hopefully that will not be the case and currently the only way is up and do not discount the positive effect of OV/AZ getting approval and hopefully already as early as next week aswell - here's hoping for sure - divi recommencement is an argument for closer to Xmas and so on and so forth ............!
Oxford Vaccine (OV/AZ) hopefully gets approved here ASAP - much more important to the UK than any other and generally worldwide also - much more than the Yankie ones who are getting all the press ATM but nowhere near as important given all the details - will be a complete GOD send if only 1.5 doses needed per person and also 90% efficacy - bang, bang - silver bullet right there for the whole world basically - end of! That will give us good impetus going forwards and naturally hopefully a BREXIT DEAL ASAP also (which should pump us up pretty hard in a shot - just like Nov 9th when vaccine proper news first broke all be it and namely the Pfizer version) and if divi's re-instated before Xmas so can start paying them from beginning of next year already (profits allowing of course/or atleast suspended one's can finally be distributed, etc) - choo choo indeed so come on the UK and come on the Lloyds - couple of pocket rockets right there - AA all the way (used to love my Poker so I did LOL)! House prices still rising and Lloyds also re-introducing 10% deposit loans again - further good news! Finally I hear bets on negative rates for next year are falling all over the place - great bit of end news - BANG BANG LOL .................!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZthNYozVwNM - we don't business Mr Macron - cave and conceed you know it makes sense ..........!
CHOO CHOO - Come on the UK, Come on the Lloyds!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
How's everyone doing?!
Made an almighty **** up in October and should now be sitting pretty like Falks but unfortunately currently still down but will hopefully soon be up - ridiculous to go from an average of roughly 28 - 42p but that's life - got to forget the bad recent decisions and get over it and look to the future and hope the profits are finally on their way - hopefully this is just the 1st stepping stone to a great future of investment especially as I'm now playing big style - losing is not an option!
So I say again :
Come on the UK and Come on the Lloyds CARALHO - AUPA AUPA!
P.S. BC2020 - I still remember your comment from October - but will forget seeing as we're pulling for the same side LOL!
Sold out completely at 26.02p (bloody day low but best I could get at the time once decision was made) - down nearly £30K (including £8.4K profit from August)! Now got to try and make that up and more - waiting to see what happens - don't like what I've been reading these last few days across the board for whole host of reasons - took a few days off last weekend and stayed away when should have been on it heavy and sold out at the latest on Monday with a bit of extra profit - should now be up £13K not £30K down - but them be the breaks of reality!
More chances will hopefully come like August!
GL+ATB to all on here especially those holding their nerve like LTH's!
Thinking it's going lower but not really hoping for it - not with what's at stake - rather a reverse and a rise and then buy into that with confidence - hope so, so let's wait and see and hopefully most if not all of us can take advantage!
Keep well and take care all concerned!
HB much appreciated and thanks for thinking of me in all of this very kind indeed - still holding for now - up nearly £9K overall - let's see what happens - would prefer not to get caught in another big dip like what happened last month but the long term goal is to be in here and stay in here for sure - multiple SP appreciation (£1 sounds good already most certainly LOL) and big dividends on top all the way along!
ATB+GL my friend - speak again soon!
Hi Gwynwin - that's been my family's philosophy always - but also accepting you have to start somewhere unless you have a "rich" enough family basically (especially these days even more so) to back-up a buy!
Maybe as I've been reading we need in the UK to move to 30-35 year mortgages (standard is 25 I believe) especially for those under 35 as on the continent - I mean for those types retirement/pensionable age will likely not be until 70 so makes sense especially with current prices, wage correlation to such, etc - problem is it's a noose around your neck for much longer, much more expensive based on the year's of extra interest, etc, etc, etc (not that as a Lloyd's share-holder I'd be complaining LOL nor the bank indeed) and it gives everyone more security and also time in the market to realise capital appreciation and hopefully plenty of it as has been the case these last 30-35 years - long may it continue indeed - fundamental basis of our economy especially for sure ...........!
Keep well and ATB+GL!
Keep well LTI all the same - good discussing with you as usual on here! Hoping for that 30p ASAP as well LOL ...........!
US stimulus deal done quickly (as it should be really given it's need to so many people) should have seen us there already - bloody Trump LOL!
Like DT has stated on here many a time - end of the month and start of next month - crucial to where this goes and then that just keeps escalating through to year end, etc and up until Spring for sure! Quite possibly lots of downs but hoping for lots of ups as well indeed many more ups than downs but currently like TP just said we're in the 20's still and as both DT and TP, etc have said and many others - we're way far from out of the woods yet - maybe come Spring onwards then yes it will be a lot more possible hopefully ............!
LOL LTI - all be it, I did actually throw in a curve ball :
"Hence the Govt thinking of stepping in as regards 95% loans, etc BUT when they say that most could afford to cover the mortgage (if they could just put together a deposit) - what type of mortgage are they on about - repayment or interest only because there's a massive difference between both LOL!"
I think this helps shows not trying to ramp at all really and did in my last message just posted mention that house prices predicted to drop next year already by quite a few - hoping not but let's wait and see!
Like I said yes affordability should normally be an extremely important part of the equation but given lower real wages currently compared to current record market prices - affordability is out of the window and all based on the desirability being backed up by the constant rise SO FAR meaning people are pinning everything not on their wages and them even going up but actually on the property continuing it's constant price ascent to cover for all the costs especially and above all the morgage, etc!
Let's just hope that worst case they plateau and like I say I'm OK with this "generation buy" if the Govt are willing to back it - it will help maintain buoyancy minimum I believe and will also mean more profit for us so WIN WIN - like I said safe, secure profitable loan book and also as I say often better a small % of something (and the bigger the better) than a large % of nothing indeed!
It's actually all down to supply and demand and desirability and FOMO, etc AND BASICALLY HOPING THEY KEEP RISING INDEED ON THE BACK OF THIS IMHO - affordability - affordability is only based on all of these and most importantly the constant rising prices at record levels - because if they stop rising and indeed reverse (as is being predicted for next year already - hope not of course) - then affordability goes even more out of the window (than my argument already relating to price/wage correlation) with negative equity and foreclosure, etc - mention affordability to all those who bought pre 2008 and Lloyds share-holders, etc then ................ LOL!