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SP/ market cap is governed by sentiment. People are looking at this company, and seeing it as a poor investment that is more likely to lose them money, than turn a profit. Hence there is little demand for the shares, and holders who want or need to sell are accepting ever lower prices.
All these markets for super and ultra caps, shame they are not using Cap-XX. Is it poor marketing. or poor product?
https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electric/electric-bike-uses-ultracapacitors
On the plus side, the mixture of batteries and caps may be the line Tesla is following.
If I thought there was even a remote possibility of a delay in one of the piece parts for assemblies that I was producing, then I would be straight on to my engineering department to find alternative products and suppliers .
It would be extremely foolish not to.
If I was in Maxwel/Teslas position I would take a look at Cap-xx finances, and then drag the case out for as long as possible. The chance of Capp-xx running out of money, and or, having an extremely low market cap in the near future will probably see investors clamouring for a buyout at 3p
If as PC01 suggests, £500k of the 750k available to PI's was sorted before we were notified of the deal and placing, then so much the better.
However that leaves CAP-XX £250k or A$500k short of funds as no one will take up the offer at 3p when they can buy at 2.9 in the market. This is going to make cash flow extremely tight to say the least as the Allenby report forecasts free cash of less than a million A$ at the year end June 2020.
With the possible exception of an agreement with Ioxus and Maxwell who are disputing the patent claim, I can not see any reason for the share price to rise over the next few months, and am expecting it to decline.
If there is another placing in the next 6 months the shares will have a value similar to confetti.
According to that Allenby report CAP-XX starts production Q1 2021, but their cash flow forecast says they have less than a million A$ at the end of 2020.
With Murata presumably still having stocks of these caps, how are CAP-XX supposed to fund production, and survive until they start selling and receiving payment for them?
"Going Dark", and not keeping shareholders up to date with progress, has resulted in a steadily declining share price. It cost Cap-xx in the end as they then had to raise new money at 3p.
As the market share price is now as to be expected, below 3p, shareholders are unlikely to take up their share of the Offer to Qualifying Participants of up to 25,000,000 Offer Shares at 3 pence per share.
Buying this production line off Murata may be at a good price, but it will be a lousy deal if it results in confetti style issues of shares at ever reducing prices.
Management seem to be lacking when it comes to forward planning, any possibility of delays to the supply of supercaps to Muratas customers is going to send them scurrying to alternative suppliers and products.
One nasty mistake like the one where the electrolyte was altered by Cap-xx's supplier will send this company into a death spiral.
I'm not happy at 25% dilution a change in business model, and positive cash flow being put off for another year. There are a lot of things that can change or go wrong over the next year before Cap-xx start production with Murata's equipment, and their customers are going to want guarantees of continuous supply and price, or they will be looking to alternative products.
I'm staying here at least until the Maxwell /Tesla patent case is resolved. 4,400 batteries per car , and Tesla supplying skateboards (chassis, batteries and drive line) to Audi.
A gamble maybe, but what brilliant odds.