Member Info for passiton

Zen ,emphasizing the value of meditation and intuition (relax) rather than ritual worship or study of scriptures. (do not ever believe a JA timeline , historical fact) it's closer than it's ever been. 😉😂

On a more serious note, he has for years, said lots, done zip, on the rigs, he has many times made open ended statements , basically the ever ongoing talks are still ongoing, his latest, gives hope that has changed, with talks have progressed and looking to finalise a wide available slot , it's by no means definitive BUT it's a step up on previous, said nothing new statements..... thinking it will actually arrive (eventually) this time........ GLA 🤔

Small trades and low volumes continue until news 🙄

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🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞 that FID 2023 Q4 Metinaro PIT decision arrives soon, with a plan, not greedy something like Sundagas is sold to regional leader/china CNOOC to FPSO/FLNG , Domestic supply PIT contract offtake, excess to world market/China 😉😂

They have 2 major projects, not just the 22 year stalemate over Sunrise, Metinaro Petroleum Import Terminal , near the capital Dili was announced as studies awarded December last year, officially announced early 2023, with a statement, Final investment decision expected FID Q4 2023 (Now), the PIT includes the stripped from Beaco plan, Gas/LNG Import facilities and 90 day tank farm, the reason given in Parliament for the PIT, on the back of Covid/Major storms, compounded by power outages, the Islands 3 power stations to be converted to Gas (completed by 2025) saving millions per annum on Diesel costs. The PIT to hold 3 months supply of all fuels. Curiously shortly after that FID announcement, Boil extended it's drill or drop on Chuditch from summer 2023.

Sundagas been training the locals since 2016, long before Chuditch NON TENDER awarded to them (services rendered) as part of the showcase launch of the TL industry and bid round Nov 2019, immediately enter Boil (failed rto took 33% initially the rest over time) having related Dr Butlers on the two BOD's.

If anyone in pole position, Sundagas and Chuditch must be high on the agenda, to supply the Metinaro PIT, via its FPSO plan (whoever ends up developing FFD of license - not boil) with its planned operational timeframe of 2025 , much earlier than the tenders for Beaco Gas/LNG processing and Export facilities , tenders 2030.🤔

This time last year Horta threatened Australia with China and others, later retracting the statement, saying it had been misunderstood, we now have a MOU between the TL Ministry that overseas the larger projects, strategic planning and investment and the China state office of Development, a few days later a much wider agreement , signed by Gusmao and president Xi (inventor of the BRI - Currently in phase III, he has written SIX in total) with more recent, other agreements with various in the region and the Middle East, gone from ZIP/NADA/ZERO general interest in the TL Maritime area, to now have them crawling out of the woodwork. We are now at the end of the BEGINNING 🤔

As said last week, the change we have awaited for 4 years, is now happening, our prospects of a JV/SALE, have never been higher, 18 license bid round , dragged out 2 1/2 years, showed next to zero interest. 9 bids on 7 or 18 licenses, during the same period, Nigeria had 57 licenses with over 1,600 bids. We now have a U turn by Woodside/OZ to at least look at going to Timor Leste (tasi mane bettano/beaco) , we have Santos/ENI/Korean's looking for more discoveries in the area(wider Bayu Area R and Area P) and more importantly, a new HUB of their own to replace Barossa and start flowing through a 2nd to be built pipeline (pipeline duplication project) to their own now IDLE Darwin facilities (Bayu production ended) with the current old pipeline becoming, waste/carbon output, from all the Darwin facilties.

Miker been telling all, Boil have been playing snail paced catch up for 4 years, Shell in the 90's said Chuditch , across the whole license , probably bigger than Sunrise, labelling over 5 tcf and multiple other leads across the license, one of which we dragged in on the partial license area done by Boil/SG part of the now called Quokka, others further to the South and South West. Due to configuration, those additional leads Shell thought Oil or Condensate, fall away and offset from Chuditch (ch1 well) Bilby and Wombat (now Chud North and Southwest) in a similar manner, as the Troubadour condensate fields do near Sunrise, collectively known as Greater Sunrise. Still playing catch up and you are right, still lots of upside to be developed. 🤔

ENI and Santos , cherry picked the bid round, with Bayu sitting in the middle of the now area R, held by Santos and ENI picking up area P, long thought to be where the Hydrocarbon kitchen , that feeds both Sunrise and Chuditch resides. Area P

the large gap in between the Sunrise and Chuditch licences. They have a JV with each other and the Koreans, so until China does/does not move, they remain favourites to take us out. They also have the pipeline duplication project on hold as Barossa blocked in the courts, was to be the HUB for their new pipe to Darwin from Barossa (santos) and Evans Shoal (ENI), Chuditch would make an ideal alternative HUB location, Barossa and E.S could still be flowed via Chuditch, an almost straight line pipeline (shallow water) to Darwin and sat between, anything they find in Area's R & P.

The Santos ceo has stated over 400m set aside for the new pipeline for production, with the already being converted, Darwin - Bayu pipeline to become waste/carbon output to Bayu depleted main reservoir, with a target of 10 million tpy.

For perspective, that 8 million tonnes per year, is double, Shell's 2008/09 FLNG plan from 26/28 wellheads for Sunrise, that TL rejected, prompting them to leave. Darwin having already been turned down in 2002, when Woodside own facilities, specifically for Sunrise , had already been mostly built, with production set for 2003 (Conoco already had customers for all the gas) , so you can see why , most of the sector are still sitting on the fence still, with 3 large known fields and who knows what waiting to be found, when the rest of the 50,000 sq km TL area explored....... GLA 🤔

Woodside , since it merged/absorbed BHP a year or so ago, continues to ramp up and splash the cash on its own , more immediate fields , in this case the Scarborough field and expansion of its pluto LNG plant near Karratha, Western Australia.

Scarborough gas field lies about 375 km off the coast of Western Australia. The project will include installation of a floating production unit with eight wells drilled in the initial phase and 13 wells drilled over the life of the field.

Gas will be transported for processing at Pluto LNG through a new trunk line of about 430 km in length. Some 5 million tpy of Scarborough gas will be processed through Pluto Train 2, with up to 3 million tpy processed through Pluto Train 1. First LNG cargo is targeted for 2026.  (tpy tonnes per year)

With China's entry into TL, will they now commit to splashing the cash , on the Sunrise/HUB and Beaco for 2030 ops. 🤔

Market 101 , all the buy/sell/unknown labels are 100% BEST GUESSES, not fact, the worlds markets only print TRADES, they see as both a buy and a sell, 3rd party sites like this one , rehash the trades adding a mid based guess to, every trade, every share, every day. Many incorrectly guessed in both directions daily.

Best guide , as stats derived from 100% guesswork also worth , used toilet paper, flat/small rise/fall, trading pretty even, large rise , buyers romping it and pushing up the bid price, large fall, the sellers need to fcuk off 😉😂

Time to put their Aussie Dollars ,where their mouth is.... 😉😂

Australia is supporting Timor-Leste's regional and global economic integration with a $6.6 million [2022-26] funding package for its accession to ASEAN. This support will provide technical assistance for Timor-Leste ministries and the aviation sector; support for strengthening Timor-Leste's private sector; and capacity building workshops in partnership with the ASEAN Secretariat and regional partners. Australia will also support Timor-Leste’s efforts to identify and implement the reforms necessary to join the WTO; and to negotiate on the General Agreement on Trade in Services.

Timor-Leste continues to be one of the most petroleum-dependent countries in the world with around 86 per cent of government expenditure each year financed by transfers from Timor-Leste's Petroleum Fund. The new government has identified diversification of the economy as a key goal, and has said it will seek to boost growth in agriculture, fisheries and tourism.

For anyone new, the source of the funds into the PF, has now stopped (Bayu-Undan production) the diversification is, as prescribed in the Timor Leste SDP 2011-2030 (Strategic Development Plan) ,which makes it kind of a Chicken and the Egg scenario, that plan based on developing its other sectors, through Oil and Gas revenues/taxes via the PF, which is now depleting itself.

The recently announced China MOU , in the TL Cabinet meeting two weeks ago today, is a direct link, between the China state Development and the TL Strategic Planning and Investment Ministry, under which both major projects fall, those being the Northern Project Metinaro P.I.T (near capital Dili) and the Tasi Mane or Southern project , Bettano Oil and Beaco Gas/LNG Export terminals on the South East coast.

The Chinese BRI involvement mentioned by China's President Xi Jinping (inventor of BRI ) the BRI has already been operating on the Island for 20 years, building roads , Government palace etc, why mention it in such a way, can only be that , having turned down the major project of Tasi Mane in the past, which included co-location of the Gas/lng Imports terminal (now stripped away and under Metinaro P.I.T.) all at Beaco, they are now prepared to look again at the larger TL projects, if so can only be good for TL and us, we have all seen how quickly the Chinese can move/build.

Current tenders are Metinaro 2025 , Beaco 2030, Chuditch now in the frame for either, with SG plan for FPSO, perfect for supplying Metinaro.........GLA 🤔

Another left field good news, would be if Santos/ENI finally signed the PSC's, for the licenses they acquired in the protracted and poor response bid round, originally to be signed by Jun/July 2022, last November extended until February 2023 by ANPM, until a few days ago , tumbleweeds, with ANP (Name change now oil and gas only- mining has a new home) stated they have made some progress on those PSC's.

Caution on that always comes, as its been a frequent occurrence over the past 20 years, for TL side to make such statements , sunrise jv meeting, great progress blah blah, coming to the Island soon (for 20+ years and going) 🤔

Biggest triggers, still remain in the hands of Horta/Gusmao

1) Beaco will be built (Tasi Mane project - All Oil and Gas to the Bettano/Beaco)

2) Beaco will not be built (All options deffo back on the table)

3) Metinaro FID Q4 2023 aka now ( FID announced and a plan , who supplies it)

4) They come out and publish support for Sundagas and ITS plans, first ever YES.

Any of which, should be as good as , or better than a Baron Yeo RNA Message, we have a flimsy low level JV (Non Maj/T1) the ultimate being , Shell want their ball back for a few hundred million RIGHT PRICE ! 😉😂

Yes but it nice to see that perspective , now being shared from elsewhere 🤣, still anticipate, news out of the blue that will be our starting gun, for the journey, not just the traders next spike 🙄,it could come from Baron Yeo's bedroom 😲 but with Baron's company profile, think they will be pushing for a sale, over a JV, investor in assets early stage developments, not remotely interested in long term and/or production. They will want a sale of Dunrobin or Chuditch , preferably the later (more dosh) for the companies, next portfolio and development phase, with AB now on the BOD, he could bring in more lucrative Asian licenses (seapex VP rubs shoulders with the elite on a regular basis) while the Yeo ho ho and crew look after this side of the planet (New North Sea licenses etc) 🤔

Pretty much what I have said for 4 years, nothing would happen until, that change, Boil/SG , now in play , in reality, for the first time ever. We still need to hear a BEACO IS being built, or a first ever YES to something else from the TL Crew BUT imo that will happen suddenly and quickly. 🤔

Still hoping, our saviour arrives, to be the saviour of TL, with a sweet deal for Chuditch combined with the Islands other major project Metinaro Petroleum Import Terminal , Gas/LNG Import facility and 90 day supply tank farm. Metinaro FID was called as in Q4 2023 (NOW) , original Parliament speech, 3 power stations to be all converted to Gas by 2025. Chuditch with the right real offshore partner, could still easily, fill that requirement. 🤔 2025 vice Beaco tenders for 2030.

What's striking, is that JA is not doing the presentation himself this year, last couple of years , heavily involved in both, Africa Oil week and Africa Energy week (two weeks follow each other) so the question is more, WHAT is JA doing this year ?, last year his pearly white smirk in many a photo op and even did a stage forum with multiple other (higher profile) company reps/ceo's (forget the subject)

So come on JA, find your pen and get this show on the water, license renewed/rig/finance......... GLA 😉😲

📰👀👀👁‍🗨👁👀👀

Best move Boil ever made, bringing AB across to join the BOD, sell Sundagas to who cares 😂 and our BOD retains its heartbeat and industry guru AB. War Chest (after SH Dividend 🤑) and bring on the next asset portfolio. 😉

By that they mean, someone else (jv) to pay the majority, for a cut of the license, Yeo ho ho , crazy if he thinks they can go it alone, recent drills offshore Australia , have been $18-20 million and an additional $3m - $5m in follow up costs, if not a duster. As said bird in the hand, best option, TL open things up, we SELL Chuditch for his presentation "right price" 🤔

Bayu slipped through the net, as then operator, Conoco (phillips petroleum) had built the pipeline to Darwin and commenced production late 2005? it was like Chuditch , still under an Australian license, force majure etc for the then known as JPDA area, which continued to produce, Kitan Oil and Bayu Gas, filling the Islands coffers, both now depleted, hence their increasing urgency, for ACTION, fund estimated also depleted by 2030 (tenders on beaco also 2030) but recent review, could survive until 2034, with annual budget cuts.

In the interim, they have had tunnel vision, said NO to FLNG and Darwin and Gusmao statement all , oil and gas, Bettano and Beaco (tasi mane) will come to the Island, all we need is someone to take it off our hands , or a valid path to market approved by the freedom fighting duo.......... GLA