Member Info for Pask

What about tidal lagoon and tidal barrage projects? It seems current government and industry discourse around tidal seems to be emphasizing them more. I would assume there would be more flexibility with using tidal stream, as it would take less time to set up such devices comparatively compared to barrages and lagoons.

Also, what about the likes of NOVA innovation? I am assuming you are betting on SAE because they are in the tidal real estate business now, rather than the production of tidal turbines. I do think there is money to be made here, but there are too many issues with the uncertainty caused by the UK’s political system. It’s a lot like the weather: Unpredictable in the medium to long run.

It’s just annoying thinking about how bad management of the UK economy means there are a load of weaknesses in regard to our energy production that can be exploited in the geopolitical arena in future (among other things).

I think you have the right approach. What do you think of the prospects of getting kept afloat by Uskmouth for the meantime? And also, do you trust Labour when it comes to talk about Tidal. They seemed serious about it in 2019, but now, god knows. It's probably just PR.

The main issue now, is that the UK can't rely on cheap credit like it did in 2019. Why are the British so good at shooting themselves in the foot?

Found source:
https://www.snp.org/nicola-sturgeons-address-to-snp22-conference/

I do think it is a reasonable position to be fairly optimistic in our given circumstances with SAE on all fronts, and I say that as someone with a more pessimistic disposition. A lot of things are stacking up in our favour. On the pellet issue, if we can advertise the product to as many stakeholders as possible as a temp issue we could do fairly well. I hope there are discussions behind the scenes with various interests.

Could we apply?

https://www.ukri.org/opportunity/innovate-uk-smart-grants-jul-2022/
https://apply-for-innovation-funding.service.gov.uk/competition/1224/overview/282a61af-bb23-43e7-8c47-143fafba51de#dates

I mean we're running on empty, so it is necessary that there needs to be some news regarding financing of some sort from some big II. SAE has managed to get a couple of people willing to finance projects if goals were met, so I'd imagine they'd be seeing if anyone would be willing to fund the project. It might take a few weeks or months to get any significant news.

https://thegrayzone.com/2022/06/28/intelligence-cabal-uk-home-secretary-priti-patels-enemies/

I don't know. There seems to be alleged pressure from inside to go against the "green blob". Someone I know who works in the area cross checked this, and she says it’s probably authentic (according to them the civil service is very leaky, so information gets out that way normally or via administration errors. Hacking is less of an issue).
Anyway, Boris' pro-green stance was more down to his partner, according to Dominic Cummings. Boris just liked to build things and had no real ideological agenda aside from building monuments for himself. There is a good chance that the next PM will not be pro-green, because a lot of friends and friends of friends are invested, lobby or are somehow associated with oil and gas AND they view the greens and crypto-socialists, i.e., water melon useful idiots.
Boris rehashed a lot of the ideas from Labour during 2017 and 2019 for his own ends (and out of necessity during the pandemic). I think there is a chance we will return to austerity friendly policies soon, but the impact that may have on green energy is fuzzy. If we get an ideologue like Patel (not completely out of the realm of possibility, but unlikely at the moment), then it will be bad. If we get someone a little bit more pragmatic (Who?), then they will keep up the green thing to increase GDP through cost competitiveness with other sources of energy.

If you induce a state on mania and hype among investors through a consistant stream of good news, it is forseeable that the share price would become irrationally overvalued.

I am not as certain, I can see this going to 10p if it takes a similar trajectory to ITM (I still have no idea why it did so well during COVID, but was happy to hold it). I am inclined to be more on the pessimistic side and agree with you however. I'd say, as a rough heuristic, it's got a 25-30% chance of going the same way as ITM in a short timeframe IF they get a big institutional investor on board (not Gupta). It would also need to gain approval for the battery power facility as well to increase this chance and have a stream of good news in a very short time period. This would increase the chances of a sudden rise; however, there is no guarantee of this and believing as such is wishful thinking now.

I think I know why the CfD win came under Meygen PLC rather than SIMEC Atlantis, and it's probably because they have Nova Innovation on board. What I think happened was getting Nova on board in a separate venture, may have reduced the risk and bad faith assigned to SAE via Gupta and GFG alliance. It seems like quite a good symbiotic relationship if this assumption is correct, as it means both Nova and SAE have a win-win arrangement. Nova could also pump additional money into Meygen through private II potentially depending on if UK law is amendable to this. Happy to be proved wrong on this assumption.

Probably a good sign if they did.

Yep, but my gut tells me either we're not going to get anything or it will be too little.

Assuming we even get a CfD, the question I still have is how big would it even need to be at this point to make give us some breathing space. A pot of 20m per year isn't a lot, so we'd need a big portion of it.

I am assuming this is a glitch? It jumps to from 1.20 to 1.90 at 16:40.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/SAE/simec-atlantis-energy-limited/company-page

*between the period of 18 months

While the news is good, and the share price should be approuching higher levels than it actually is, I think it is more likely that it will go down to lower levels such as were seen yesterday. The reason: There is no reason (aside from fear of placing, which could happen but I think is less likely to happen until up much higher). Just seems to be how this stock goes.

Regardless, it makes it easier to negotiate with abundance. Granted, I'd like the 11M now rather than somewhere around 18 months time, but to have it secured means we have more options with more optimal outcomes for settling the debt.

WELL, that makes things more complicated. Granted:

"Gupta’s Belgian company Liberty Liege Dudelange on Thursday successfully appealed an April court order which called for the company to be liquidated after a judge rejected a restructuring plan for its Belgian assets. The decision was overturned after Gupta’s Romanian steel subsidiary Liberty Galati provided financial support for its Belgian counterpart in the form of a debt-to-equity swap worth €52.5mn as well as €3mn in cash, according to court records."

Perhaps Gupta will throw us a bone to get us passed the abundance issue. I mean, he's already lost a lot of money here so far. Assuming we get a contract, he'd make more in the long term and a dte swap for us would be less than his other company.

I've found a variety of deadlines for notification which may be of intrest to some.

23 – 24 May 2022 30 -
31 May 2022 7 -
8 July 2022 (latest notification).

My gut is telling me it is more likely to be the 31st of May or 8th of July rather than Monday and Tuesday. July isn't however "early summer", although that was only hearsay from some guy on here who apparently emailed those in charge of the CfD process (if memory serves me correct). Granted, if the "early summer" notification is correct it would be the 31st of may.

Source: https://www.cfdallocationround.uk/sites/default/files/2022-02/Allocation%20Round%204%20-%20Potential%20timeline%20scenarios_0.pdf

I am under the impression that we will recieve confirmation regarding the CFD after the final dealine from abundance, unless it is postponed for a month or so. The CfD process gave the impression that they would give confirmation of succeful applications for some applicants either during april late or early july. However, last time I checked it would be early summer which is the start of june. It may not be as bad as I thought it was then, as (assuming we get a contract) it would be well before the 30th deadline. The longest period for notification was early July (the 8th I think), so it might be still doable. We are however, cutting things very close.

Yep, something is definetly wrong at this point on the turbine side. It's just too silent. Just need to wait for an RNS for confirmation. I assume it has probably got installed given second hand accounts/shipping data here, but there might be some technical issues (hopefully small) given the deafening silence. I really want to be wrong about this, but it just seems the best explination at the moment until further infromation is given. Any alternative views?