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Of course, there will be some crazy fads as well. The last bull market included a boom in plant-based meats that seems inexplicable now, not to mention the special purpose vehicles that flourished briefly at the peak before predictably crashing. This one will probably involve a robot doing something or other, not very well.

But that is part of the fun of a rising market – a few bubbles emerge alongside some genuinely impressive new businesses.

True, the global economy may look in dire condition right now. Inflation is far from coming under control. We will see interest rates rise higher. Energy rationing may have to be imposed across much of Europe, including the UK. There is still plenty of chaos and pain ahead.

Even so, the markets are always looking forward. In reality, the new bull run has already started – and its big themes and breakout stars are about to emerge.

Every bull market is dominated by a few big themes. Last time around it was the lockdown stocks, when we briefly imagined we would stay at home forever. Zoom and the upmarket exercise bike manufacturer Peloton were its stars. Before that it was the rise of the web, as well as environmentally friendly bets, with Netflix, Spotify and of course the electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla proving highly popular.

What will be the mega trends of this bull market? Here are three to watch.

First, military technology, or “miltech” as it will probably soon be known in venture capital circles. The war in Ukraine looks like it may turn into a brutal stalemate that runs for years. The Cold War in the Pacific has already started, with the United States and China competing for control of the world’s most contested ocean. Defence spending is already rising, and that is only going to continue. There will be lots of space for companies with new weapons systems, and new ways of taking the fight to the enemy – and investors will get excited about all of them.

Next, redesigning supply chains. “Friendshoring” is the kind of ghastly jargon that management consultants come up with on a bad day. Even so, there is an element of truth in it.

The one thing every major manufacturer and retailer has discovered over the last couple of years is that supply chains are far too stretched, too vulnerable to disruption, and about to get too expensive as well.

Logistics hasn’t been fashionable or exciting for a long time – for the obvious reason that it is really dull – but the trend towards sourcing supplies from closer, friendlier neighbours will accelerate, and the companies making that happen will do well.

‘A few bubbles emerge alongside some new impressive businesses’
Finally, energy. Over the last year we have discovered how fragile our power resources are, and how dangerously reliant we have been on a handful of hostile countries for supplies.

The demand for energy security will be insatiable. At the same time, the transition to green technologies will be accelerated.

Add those two trends together and there will be huge demand for companies offering everything from energy storage to high capacity batteries, as well as alternative fuels ranging from solar to wind to fusion. A Tesla or two will emerge in that space – and might even be owned by Elon Musk.

A golden chance to capitalise on bull market
Matthew Lynn
Picture of Matthew Lynn
It’s over. True, interest rates are still rising, inflation is running out of control and real wages are falling at an unprecedented rate – and a recession is looming. But despite all that gloom, this week the bear market on the Nasdaq officially came to a close. The index has now bounced back by 20pc since its low point, the standard definition for the end of a bear market. Since the tech-heavy Nasdaq now leads the way for markets everywhere, we can be sure that the other major bourses won’t be far behind.

In truth, the new bull market has already begun. Since that typically involves the index roughly doubling over a three-year run there is plenty of upside ahead.

What will that look like? Investors should be watching for a boom in military hardware, especially involving new technologies; for a shortening of supply lines as products are made closer to home; and for a boom in anything related to energy storage or alternative fuels as we switch to green power. Every bull market generates a handful of real stars, and a series of mega trends – and this one won’t be any different.

With a 2.9pc gain last Wednesday, helped by better than expected inflation data, the key Nasdaq index ended its worst bear market since 2008. While still some way short of its all time high reached last November, it has rallied 20pc over 55 days. Given that it was the major tech stocks that witnessed the worst of the carnage, the rout clearly seems to be over. The broader Dow Jones is close to ending its correction, and other major indices are rallying around the world. Even the typically dismal FTSE 100, with its dull collection of banks and mining and oil giants, has settled above 7,500. Add it all up, and the bear market of 2020 is over.

As it turned out, this was a very typical market collapse. According to data from Bespoke Research, the Nasdaq fell by 33.7pc over 209 days, against the average for a Nasdaq bear market of a 33pc fall spread over 225 days.

Anyone who bought during those few torrid months will soon, at least if history is any guide, be feeling pretty pleased with themselves. The average Nasdaq bull market typically clocks up total gains of 135pc over 841 days.

Within that there can be very wide variations. The strongest Nasdaq bull market ran from 2009 to 2018 with the index rising fivefold over that time.

The weakest ran for a mere 24 days in January 2001 when the index rallied by 24pc (a bit of a damp squib, all things considered). If this one just comes close to the average, however, there is plenty of potential upside from here on in.

Idiot

Pipe lines are under maintenance and cannot cope with volumes being produced. Temporary problem.

Each and every recession is for different reasons. The one that may (or may not. Look at how many jobs the us added recently) come is as a result of high cost of living I.e the price of oil. I’m no expert but above the trend oil prices are here to stay. With or without a resolution in Ukraine. Simple supply and demand.

Regards

I shouldn’t worry you’ll be dead after all.

Well I hope there is no offer. I wouldn’t know where else to look to for an equivalent monthly dividend .

Tony
We also have Serenity and. Minos/liberator potential.
40p ??
Regards

Tony
If it does come off how do you see it playing out.
Regards

Just my opinion.
If we think that Fridays announcement has any relevance on the outcome of said deal then we are wrong. These potential farm in partners have looked at all angles and all possibilities knowing there WOULD be some some sort of tax due to high profits on high oil price. They thankfully look at the future average prices and profits not on what may or may happen short term. Stop fretting!
Regards all.

You really are a complete idiot.

This is all helpful for JOG, both in terms of time achieving first oil from the GBA, but
also in terms of the company’s ongoing farm out process, where we would expect
potential partners to be further encouraged by the new government strategy,
promises of regulatory support and, potentially, focus on electrification, alongside
the persistently high oil price. The farm out process continues, and we await further
updates here.
Separately, we also note the recently announced acquisition of Siccar Point by Ithaca
Energy. Siccar Point’s portfolio includes the producing Schiehallion and Mariner
fields, but also the significant Rosebank and Cambo development projects, for a total
of 54mmboe of net 2P reserves and 470mmboe of net 2C resources. The US$1.46m
total acquisition price (including US$360m of contingent payments) plus US$391m
end 2021 net debt implies a strong US$34/boe of 2P and then US$3.5/boe of 2P+2C.
From the point of view of JOG, it’s positive to see significant cash being deployed in
an acquisition with a material development resource element.
No change to forecasts or valuation.
Conclusion: JOG’s GBA development project (based on the Buchan oil field and J2
and Verbier oil discoveries, alongside a number of exploration prospects) represents
a significant UK North Sea asset position. It puts JOG in charge of 162mmboe of
estimated gross 2C economic resources, based on the company’s standalone
platform development concept, implementation of which could see the GBA as the
base for a new hub development in the area (potentially also facilitating tie-back
development of any further JOG discoveries, and third-party fields). Other
development options, including tie-back to another regional platform or existing
floating infrastructure, are also being explored. Progression of the GBA
development project would make JOG an increasingly significant UK E&P company,
likely to draw increasing amounts of investor attention.
Going forward, we look for continuation of the important farm out process (on the
main GBA development, but also likely including the surrounding exploration
assets), where a wide variety of counterparties and development options is being
engaged with. Alongside farm out process updates, there is also the ongoing
potential for new production acquisitions as assets continue to change hands in the
UK North Sea. This provides plenty of potential for news flow in the coming months,
and beyond this a route towards first oil from the GBA. The £17.1m end June 2021
cash holding (zero debt) creates a strong funding position for the farm out process
and initial FEED work. In our view, the market is yet to fully appreciate JOG’s current
asset position, but progression through a successful farm out process and
subsequent development work should act as important events in demonstrating the
materiality and significance of this going forward. We have a Buy recommendation
and 700p

The UK government has recently announced a new UK energy strategy.
While this includes plans for significant new nuclear capacity, higher
generation from wind and solar and increased investment in hydrogen,
importantly it also gives oil and gas a key role in forward UK energy
supplies. This focuses on domestic production from the North Sea, both
from a carbon footprint (domestic volumes typically have much lower
emissions than those that are imported) but also a security of supply
point of view.
Alongside expressing the general support of the government for the
domestic oil and gas industry, the government announcement
mentions four particular actions. First is a new North Sea licensing
round for later in 2022. Second is the provision of focused regulatory
support for new oil and gas developments, aimed at reducing the time
taken to obtain required clearances. Third is a greater drive for platform
electrification, and fourth is a re-examination of onshore fracking.
In our view, the new licensing round is, amongst other things, indicative
of broader support for the future of UK North Sea oil and gas activity,
and the expectation of this continuing at scale over the coming years
and decades.
More specifically for JOG and its GBA development project, the
emphasis on new developments is particularly positive, in our view,
indicating strong government support for upcoming projects and, likely,
expedited clearances.
The mention of a drive for platform electrification is also helpful for JOG,
given the company’s plans in this area and the potential for it to also
attract partners looking to do this themselves.
More broadly, we think that the key role oil and gas is emphasised as
having for UK energy supplies over the coming decades will be
welcomed by the industry and inspire confidence for investment in the
UK North Sea. Continued on next page/

Dick
Just filter the bell end.

How does one filter the pratt?

James,
Do us all a favour and **** off you idiot!

Exactly right!

Thanks Tony.

That may well be true but there’s always the downside. I3e fundamentals are rock solid with or without Serenity success.