Member Info for PageofCups

Don't do the lottery.

Please sell some more :)

I'm buying. Just picked up all your shares. Thanks!

Too risky to be out of this. Good luck with the selling!, imo, dyor.

The US economy is doing great thanks.

Those that lie down with dogs, get up with fleas.

Most of us do not look as handsome to others as we do to ourselves.

Short analysis.
Half the well costs raised through investment via a CLN at 6p baseline with 25% premium to a lower equity price. Why 25% premium? Why 6p?
A number of funding proposals already received at time of CLN agreed.
Farmout partners lurking.
Sea Drill, Baker Hughes and Halliburtons due dilligence positive.
Well costs greatly reduced.
Chance of finding oil high for a wildcat.
Conclusion, short?

I would close that, mon ami.

Jim. Have to be mad to be short, imo. I guess some don't understand the dynamics of BPC.

Listen, or your tongue will make you deaf.

Seek wisdom, not knowledge. Knowledge is of the past, Wisdom is of the future

There are many ways to skin this cat. Shorting is not one of them, believe me.

Other possible offers of funding on the table are the well service providers and driller providing funding for half the costs of the well(s). The prerequisite for them getting involved was for BPC to raise half the costs, imo, dyor. This framework was drawn up for Bizzel to have something tangible to be able to provide the CLN.

I would close any short on BPC as it's way too risky. BPC has the ability to surprise. Any sniff of a farmout and it's 8p+

The limiting factor is the number of shares available to raise the necessary funds prior to drilling. We know how much BPC need to raise for 1 or 2 wells, we know how many shares they have allocated for the funding (1.8Bn), hence an equity price can be worked out. There just aren't enough shares for a placing at 1.5p or anything like that if they are going to drill. It just wouldn't raise enough money for drilling, hence a higher equity price will be needed. There needs to be enough shares to cover the CLN aswell. These shares will not be taken upfront imo, as there is a 3 year term period with a 12% coupon. Any future hypothetical sp that equity is raised could technically be in the 3 year period of the term for the CLN. So on any oil discovery, post drill, could be at a greater sp than 6p, however without a successful discovery, would be at a lower sp +25%, If you are short, it is very risky as there is the likely chance of a farmin due to the reduced well costs. Majors have been basing there farmin costs on $100-120m per well. Now they know they can drill for as little as $25m, it makes a farmin a lot more attractive. imo dyor.

If that were so, then a drill would have happened many moons ago.

One finger cannot lift a pebble.

Listen, or your tongue will make you deaf.

The frog does not drink up the pond in which he lives.