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I've added 400,000 so far this week as well. A return to just 5p sees a 70% return on that which is mental!
Pretty low last few sessions so looks like people have decided whether to be in or out at this point. There are AIM listed dusters with higher market caps than this. Current production coupled with assets and partners all bodes well for the renegotiation. As long as the bondholders are making money for the foreseeable they'll be happy. Not uncommon for renegotiations at this stage. I think what is making the shorters nervous, and so vocal here, is that they negotiated the extention after the well stopped producing, Seems to me that would have been the time to take advantage of the situation and seize assets if they wanted to. They didn't and I can't see them doing it now.
Looks like a slam dunk buy to me at 3p. Like coal, gas will increase into winter, especially with the continued uncertainties around energy.
More likely to be bondholders shorting than II' s selling. If the bondholders are shorting obviously they'll know when to buy back. Still in NT hmmmmmm. If bonds are renegotiated, and I think they will be, then they will need to cover as the rest of us pile in. That will be a good 30mins :D
If you compare Q4 2022 (c170p SP) production to Q2 2023, it's up over 200%. Cash is still building and they are in talks re the rebuilding of the Ukraine. Must be handy to have the words 3rd largest iron ore pellet producer in country when you need a few hundred million tonnes of iron ore. Done very well and EU based customers continue to be served without disruption which is keeping them loyal.
Some are probably waiting for the confirmation of the run rate back to 42 mmscf/d. Company has stated that production has been initially set at 20 mmscf/d and will be steadily built up to full rate over the coming week as the Saturn Banks Pipeline System is further dewatered. That was in the RNS on Monday so it refers to this week and maybe includes the weekend. Hopefully they'll give the market a positive update when its confirmed to be back to 42 mmscf/d. Be good to hear that tomorrow then the press can do its thing over the weekend. Be nice if they have understated and will over-deliver on this timeframe. Either way that's a significant and material production rate.
Looks like Transnet are getting their act together as well. Expected coal exports to exceed targets for the rest of 2023 which I think a lot on the sidelines were waiting to hear. Position taken today at 572p.
You're right Dogger. The situation for Russia is extremely grim. Civil unrest and fractions getting ready to take control all over Russia. Good we have had a few days of positive rising here. Confidence on the production update next week and the future of FXPO I expect is what is driving the upward trend. Good luck with you position.
Jeez this guy has a depressing thread:
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/terrymc1/
He tries to influence the threads by starting conversations with negative subject headings and keeping those headings at the top of the conversations by spouting the same old every time someone puts up a new one. It's quite desperate not to believe in his own convictions quite so much and also really annoying, like a mosquito buzzing around in your bedroom in the middle of the night and you're too knackered to do anything about it.
I've been doing this for 10 years and I still can't sum up the market mechanics on AIM. This is now trading 50% lower than the covid crash in March 2020 and they just got their 42 mmscf/d well back online exceeding their best case scenario slightly for production and trading circa 8 times lower than before the well encountered issues.
The market is designed to play on peoples feers and the negativity causes a downward spiral whereby it creates a psychological acceptance to cut losses and sell lower rather than accepting a smaller gain or indeed riding a winner. Add a couple of derampers and the snowball effect kicks in.
The fact is this is now trading just 0.6p more (4.8p) post RNS than it was when the well wasn't operating. The well is back online and will be running at 42 mmscf/d!!!! Look at the revenue generation on that and the cash build. Look how the shareprice moved from single to double digits previously, and maintained those double digits. IOG is sub 5p. Let that sink in and ask yourselves if you're really worried about your holding or if the market makers are simply taking the p155. The company is revenue generating at the top end of expectations and has informed the market its actively focussed on building its cash position - that what you want at this stage. I admit I thought we would have seen a comfortable and sustained move yesterday as well, hence I'm here. 42 million shares traded yesterday and today they take it down 6% odd in 30mins on pocket change. Probably just reloading but either way value returns here due to cash build. Thats how an oil/gas company or any company works. 5p days belong back in February. I genuinely can't see how this can be kept down here. Will be a few people still around from sub 4p but my guess is the majority of them are clear and the sellers now are the ones that bought in between 5p and 5.8p yesterday and don't really know why.
Bet we move up today and continue that into the week. There is a lower gap on the chart, but there are also 3 gaps higher which are much more likely to be filled. Again lots on the sidelines hedging their guesses so no reason why it wont take off again without warning.
Thought I'd missed the boat on this while I was catching up. Happily taken a position at 5.2p. I remember missing this back in October last year at 7p and a couple of sessions later it was back at 20p. IOG are working with the larger companies who have been extremely supportive on the now resolved issues. Those sort's of contacts are what makes these companies succeed and I guess IOG unique in that sense. Not sure whats caused it to fizzle back down to around opening price but on the near 40 million volume already traded today I guess that will fizzle out in turn.
He's gone from 0p to 65p. Give it another hour and he'll be at £3. The world is watching this world class pellet producer. 85p. Romanian shipping port in use. Can't wait for the update first week in July hopefully.
Think it was only a few posts ago I said Russia will be firing missiles at themselves soon. Wagner have done the most effective fighting on the Russian side, and its army is battled hardened in several conflicts unlike the Russian army who seem to be letting them in past check points. 25k experienced and well armed soldiers who are familiar with Russian intelligence and tactics is more than a headache.
As said earlier civil unrest coming. Wager is dangerous and motivated, much like the Ukrainian army and quike unlike most of the Russian military. Always cloak and dagger/smoke screens but I'm sure the Russian people are going to be looking at what is happening in their cities. I know I'd drop one if a saw a bunch of tanks and APC's on my morning run to Tesco express.
Who'd of thought civil unrest would put Moscow at rest? Oh I did about 3 weeks ago. Be interesting to see what Prigozhin has been planning as he's obviously not doing this on a whim. Could also just be a way out for Putin who could use this as an excuse to pull out. Massive tactical advantage either way.
Big production update coming week after next for FXPO. 85p for FXPO is cheap!
Q1 2023 was 250% up Q4 2022. Power is up, cash is strong, we're looking at reinstating the divi (prob a bit soon for that) and they are shipping via a non- Ukranian port. How much is what I'm looking forward to reading about in the Q2 update but the company is in a much stronger position than it was in Q4 when the SP was trading at 170p. FXPO is not a junior oil wannabee that feel the need to RNS every detail but they are doing lots in the backgroud as implied in previous RNS's. 88p for FXPO is cheap. This went down, and kept going down to 95p into the update and then rallied into the 170's. Looks like that is happening again. Iron Ore has been nudging up as well. Lets see what the next update says.
Nice one Maksym. They are also exporting from a non-Ukranian port so are shifting again via sea. Next production update should be the first week in July, so only a few weeks away and I'm expecting it to be head and shoulders over Q1. Expect we'll be moving up as that approaches. Strong cash position and even talks of reinstating the dividend. Stay safe over there.
Ukraine Recovery Conference due to be held in London later this month. A few million displaced Ukrainians will be happy to hear that, not to mention the 900,000 that have been forced into Russia (of course they won't be hearing anything at the moment). The world is keen to get these people home and housed. Fxpo to play a large part hence the positioning of Blackrock. Looking forward to the next update in a few weeks. Won't need sea ports for in-country sales.