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Unless I’ve missed something GDR haven’t actually sold anything yet? Or is the rise in sp based on sentiment and potential of BC collaboration. Last years rise on sentiment was in the middle of an evolving pandemic but this year we have the experience of GDR not sticking to deadlines and a number of false dawns. Unless we get sales sp will not be maintained and will drop.
I’m invested at 40K since last summer which is big for me and of course want GDR to succeed but cool heads is called for where GDR is concerned.
Gdr waffling about new SA strain and how it’s product can still detect the new variant. So?! Where are the sales on SA or from anywhere else? Gdr has been able to sell in SA but nothing to show so far.
Gdr is really taking the pxxx.
Unable to move as heavily invested so no option but to bear this...for how long? Wtf.
Positive news this morning and hope this does lead to contracts and sales. Correct me if I’m mistaken, I’m just aware that GDR have been able to sell in other countries like South Africa, but have not evidenced any sales to date? This worries me. Nevertheless positive news this morning and just hope it leads to something a bit more concrete otherwise the sp will drift downward again.
For me, yes testing is here for a while, but even if GDR gets approvals I don’t see the sp rising any where near previous highs. The COVID momentum has dissipated. I’m invested at 112 and now I genuinely don’t believe I’m going to get all my money invested. I hope so, but unlikely. And if it does it will be on the other products. So disappointed with GDR but only myself to blame.
The following is taken from a slide during DB’s recent presentation.
Interpret as you wish.
My own view is the it’s likely the sp will respond to approvals but will not be sustained till there are signed contracts and sales. To date as far as I know, please correct me, but GDR hasn’t sold anything or at least not provided any hard evidence.
I have £40K invested and down by 50% but I am increasingly finding it difficult to believe that even with contracts the sp is unlikely to reach the heights of a few months ago, which was partly fuelled by the corvid momentum. £1 or £1.50? I don’t know. Covid and testing is definitely here to stay for a while yet but the urgency has gone. Will I get my money back or even a profit, I don’t know. Anyway these are my thoughts.
News flow
0-6 months:
Registration updates
Material contracts as won
Research use of SARS cov-2 POC product
Commercial launch of AIHL and initial sales
CE marked SARS cov-2 POC
6-12 months:
Update on DOD contract progression
Version II SARS cob-2 POC with freeze dried bead and price-point for scale
3 year objectives:
SARS cob-2 kits expected to continue to provide revenue stream post any vaccine
Successful traction of AIHL in UK/I and expansion to additional markets (USA in scope)
DOD confirmation on order rate and market sizing
mTB launch on plan for June 22
Problems with the Oxford vaccine results
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/11/26/manufacturing-error-clouds-oxfords-covid-19-vaccine-study-results/
The last week has been traumatic to say the least and I admit I am not happy and my confidence in GDR has been tested! But for the moment I plan to remain invested. My investment is £40K and I’m 50% down! It is nerve racking sitting on this paper loss but that’s AIM for you. There is stuff to look forward to over the next few months and that’s when I probably will make a decision. At the moment I don’t need that money so happy to watch and wait. Sadiq this May or may not help you with your decision.
js1990, yes. He said the same in an email reply this morning. Check my earlier post this morning.
"Thank you for your email and you highlight an excellent point, in that there isn’t enough understanding that the vaccine implementation is actually a positive for the consortium test. Like you I believe that with the vaccine this will provide longevity to the use of the consortium test.
This is something we have been discussing and looking at ways to inform people that this is indeed a positive
Best regards
Colin
The AIHL test is a brilliant new product that will make a significant positive impact on care of babies on neonatal units ( as a medic I have worked on them for years till recently) and difficult to believe that it won't sell well. I would have bought one for our unit if it had been available! I hope there will be some positive news about this next week.
Re SNG moment, yes why not.
Potential is there for definite, plus notwithstanding UK antibody test+UK Vaccine (when it comes)=lots of political brownie points
I don’t have Twitter but you are welcome to
I emailed Colin and Walkbrook yesterday as suggested by Safy. Reply this morning. Hoping that we will now see a more visible and vocal campaign for the UK-RTC test in anticipation of any new vaccine news.
Dear Colin and Wallbrook.
I am a PI with a modest investment of £44K. I would regard myself as a long term holder.
What a day today with the BMJ article and the robust UK-RTC response!
The latter was needed and I was pleased that it clarified what the UK-RTC test is and more importantly what it is not.
That it is an extremely important tool for surveillance which is going to be even more important when vaccines start to arrive over the next few months.
The test will be really useful to help with mapping the spread of the virus and impact of the vaccine.
I have done my own research and have full confidence in the test as well as, if I may add, the other products from Omega Diagnostics, in particular the tests for HIV and food intolerance.
China approval for the latter, what a coup! Well done.
However, as happened with Pzifer’s recent vaccine news, my feeling is that ODX share price will remain very sensitive to further vaccine news.
I genuinely believe that the market and many investors have a very flimsy understanding of our test and its primary use.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we hear some news regarding the Oxford vaccine over the next few weeks or month.
I am not a business or PR person and not to be disrespectful I really hope that OmegaDiagnostics/UK-RTC and Wallbrook take a very pro-active PR strategy over the next few weeks emphasising what our test is, what it is not, and how it complements any vaccine that comes on the market. Vaccination is just the initial step, what is also crucial in this and for any future pandemic, is the surveillance perspective. In this respect, the need for the UK-RTC assay is important and will remain so for years, I suspect.
That we have nothing to fear with any vaccine, that we are complimentary!
I have strong faith in the product and I sincerely hope and wish that this is matched by a much stronger and visible communication strategy over the next few weeks and months.
Anyway, I just thought it important, for me, to share my thoughts.
Colin’s reply (he gave permission):
Thank you for your email and you highlight an excellent point, in that there isn’t enough understanding that the vaccine implementation is actually a positive for the consortium test. Like you I believe that with the vaccine this will provide longevity to the use of the consortium test.
This is something we have been discussing and looking at ways to inform people that this is indeed a positive
Best regards
Colin
Have done my bit. Have emailed Colin and Wallbrook.
Safy
Ditto.
Thanks for your comments Vascular.
"The test will make it possible to build a swift and clear picture of how the virus has spread throughout the UK population.
It will also be able to help establish the effectiveness of any vaccine which provides protection by creating new antibodies. This information will be critical to managing current and future outbreaks of COVID-19.
Mass production is already under way. The antibody test will be rolled out under the government’s COVID-19 surveillance studies to help build a picture of how the virus has spread across the country. Surveillance studies are vital to develop our understanding of how antibodies work. "
My understanding is that it never was a diagnostic test in the normal sense. Its primary use was for surveillance. The reason for this being the different parts of the virus being tested.
Regarding "The test is currently CE-Marked for professional use and can be administered by healthcare professionals, such as doctors, nurses, pharmacists and healthcare workers, at the point- of-care. The UK-RTC are seeking approval from the MHRA for self-test use."
My understanding from this statement was that MHRA approval wasn't just for only self-test use...but for professional POC and self test. The latter, based on the BMJ article, is probably a non-starter now , and in hindsight was always going to be a problem in terms of ensuring quality and consistency of use. Self-testing in this pandemic I was always a bit concerned about in terms of ensuring consistent quality. It is the reason why not many 'self-test' tests get approved in normal times.
My understanding of the UK-RTC response today is partly backtracking a little bit in their request for self-testing but also doubling down on what the primary role for the test was in the first place, namely surveillance.
Anyway, I may well be wrong on all of this but just my humble thoughts.