I tend to agree Bongabob.
Look at it this way, if TE10 is big as we are being led to infer, how do we best get top value for our entire licence? Have a guaranteed gas sales price for everything that has been discovered, AS WELL AS anything yet to be discovered.
Now that gives a buyer real certainty of the discovered assets value, and a very good way to model the rest which they can merrily go off and explore for. The latter of course gets heavily discounted, but we get the ability to negotiate the best deal and value possible for what we ave found already.
Sounds very much like we are getting sold on the back of TE10 results to me. And the better that number is, the happier we will all be.
TE11 is now on the back burner I suspect and part of the negotiating strategy. Let’s see. Shame I can’t get to London next week, so will wait with interest to see what is said, but importantly how and the teams mood.
Well it sounds logical and positive. If this is indeed where our contract relates to (and I’m yet to see a better fit in Iran against what we know on PAX etc) if they are about to enter final tests and go operational, surely we must have boots on the ground over there already.
Gibbo - re ATR, if I recall correctly, they secured a waiver from the US to deliver part of the order last year, but a number of airframes remained on the order to be delivered.
Who were you emailing Gozo. My experience of emailing JP and Sarah has always been swift responses - usually minutes or hours.
If we are really in comms lockdown, the conclusion could be very much closer than we think. But they they could just be a bit busy today.
Possibly Blade.
However, the big question is why they are not moving forward with TE11 groundworks? There is apparently no real reason not to - they did with TE10 after all. So the absence of any desire to expedite TE11 is an interesting point.
The reasons will become apparent I’m sure - I suspect there is much going on in the background that will explain this in due course and may be a pleasant surprise to us all. And it may well mean LE this year - we can hope so anyway.
That’s a big trade by anyone’s standards, but particularly so in WSG.
We could debate all day whether it was a buy or sell, but either way, 3.5m shares now have a new home and someone was prepared to take them in one chunk. So either a buyer wants them, or an MM believes that they can house them with relative ease.
Either way, the SP afterwards picked up, which isn’t a bad sign.
All ticking along nicely it seems.
I concur Jack - there seems to be a positivity about potential stimulated rates. Knowing we have nailed the Strat trap will be the biggest plus here. Sounds like the initial “deepest gas” tests may assist with confirming if this is the case.
Also not sure why we haven’t started groundwork’s on TE11. Could just be the partner approval issue. Then again, there are signs that we have an interested party in the wings (GSA and Sidi delays are related to this in my view), so could simply be that that party is waiting to see the test results on TE10 before they press ahead with a formal offer.
Either way, feels like we are nearing the point of conclusion now.
Indeed Soundas - those few lines gives a very good insight into what the company know and are thinking.
The cross section diagram is also a helpful indication of what they are seeing and why it could be so material - note how much lower the “spill point” is to the top of the Stratigraphic structure
This could be a very very significant discovery
Now live on SOU website.
Couple of key nuggets on TE10 on Page 6:
“TE-10 drilled ca. 110m gross TAGI succession with gas shows throughout”
“Gas bearing sands interpreted in and below structural closure, potential for significant stratigraphically trapped upside volumes”
Ive reread the last RNS several times now, and I believe that the signs are there that this is likely to be a very material discovery. Aside from the mention of 8%, this section is perhaps the most important:
“The Company has now completed the FMI (high definition formation micro-imager log) which provides a microresistivity image of the well bore at a much finer resolution than the initial logging suite. Significantly, the FMI has potentially identified the presence of additional thin bedded net pay within the previously identified potential gross reservoir interval between 1,899m MD to 2,009m MD. Quantification of the overall net pay is underway and will require substantiation from side-wall core analysis and further wireline log evaluation.
The Company is also very pleased to confirm that a gas sample (comprising C1 to C5 hydrocarbons) was successfully recovered from one of these pay intervals at approximately 1,937m MD using a MDT (modular formation dynamics tester system). The successful retrieval of this gas sample confirms the presence of moveable hydrocarbons in the reservoir, and importantly is the first successful MDT gas test from the TAGI sandstone in the Tendrara licence (where testing has historically been hampered by the tight nature of the sandstone).
Following the acquisition of the VSP (vertical seismic profile), the Company can confirm that the gas shows observed extend below the currently mapped structural closure at approximately 1,958m MD. This suggests the gas accumulation may extend updip into the stratigraphic trap. Seismic interpretation and modelling is underway to assist with internal estimates of gas resources within the discovery.”
1. Extra net pay areas identified
2. Successful gas recovery via MDT - very significant in my view and suggests we have much better rock here than TE5 Horst
3. Gas shows below mapped closure - Strat play looks like its viable
Testing results could be really exciting news. And I wouldn’t want to bet against the GSA now materialising in the next week or two to keep the momentum up. Would be very welcome and assist is stabilising and hopefully lifting the SP ahead of test results for the next leg up.
Wish I knew Neptune’s. Could be further positive results from drill which have got out somehow.
But I suspect it’s more likely that with the TE5 Horst valued at mid 20’s, the prospect of GSA to come and now TE10 looking good, people are simply doing the numbers and realising that there is very good upside from high teens.
Well, what a pleasant end to Xmas week.
I go to a meeting for the afternoon and come back to find a most agreeable 36% rise. About time too and with a lot more to come I hope. Doesn’t feel like P&D to me, particularly with those chunky trades. So the question is, was it simply some confidence returning on the back of the RNS, or a leak?
Provided it holds, consolidates and continues, i really dont care what caused it. The higher we are when the GSA and any other positive news lands, the better for all of us.
I share the view that we may not drill TE11. I’ve never been certain that we needed, or indeed would drill all three and feel it was a negotiating position, which provided some flex for a duster along the way. Had TE9 been a success, I suspect we might have seen the start of the LE. Sadly as we know it wasn’t, but success in TE10, as now looks increasingly likely, could restore the balance we need and kick start the final journey to a successful LE.
Monday morning could be interesting. Good luck everyone, the tide may now be on the turn.