Member Info for OvenReadyRNS

Feeks - I was reading your earlier post about future potential sp values through the different stages, etc. One thing (from the many…) I’ve been considering is the last 2 tranche one payments and the fluidity of timing. My thought is the first 3 are deemed enough by ‘RAM and friends’ to cover all FEED and ZIOC lights on running costs all the way through to Dec 27. The residue 2x RAM payments are purely a hoover up mechanism to deliver the 87.5% as close to FID as possible. In short, RAM doesn’t want the complication of ZIOC running out of cash during the interim. So why does that matter? Twofold: (1) ZIOC will likely receive the last $10m at the time just before FID as well as probably receive the $50m for 0.5% royalty stream purchase upon FID. This may appear as upside if it weren’t for issue (2) ZIOC will have to fund lights on costs for the entire construction period until 2031 which would only start generating low rate initial profits feeding up to ZIOC in 2032, so approximately 6 years to fund. ZIOC Board would most likely want to similarly retain a cash reserve in case construction doesn’t go exactly to schedule or budget.. In particular this risk can’t be underestimated.

I would expect Marty and Andrew to continue on cash salaries and an adequate expense allowance appropriate for such high rollers that’ll likely mean a couple of million $ each year to be reserved. If not for them, then certainly for others… In all, a fair chunk of the aforementioned $50 - $60 million will likely be retained, so the many postings about the 4.5p dividend subsequent to FID is far from assured.

I may off the mark, but it’s another risk element PI’s should be mindful of. Having chewed over the gets & gives around this proposal, as a LTH, I’m continuing to hold (hopefully this will please ggg!). This AIM muppet company still has legs…

Personally, I’m not seeing Mr Market taking the sp much above current levels until FID. which ever way you cut the tranche 1 funding, the project still isn’t ‘construction financed’. So, we’re back to the ore in the ground valuation of $0.03 (or thereabouts that other posters cite from time to time). In effect we’ve been hovering around the 7.4p mark for quite a while now (even before the last two weeks of peculiar trading volumes, etc), so if the deal is approved by Shareholders in June, all we’ll have done is sold 20% of the project to prospectively get us closer to securing construction financing… In short, Mr Market will still await FID, and consider the generic sp valuation at 7.4p -20%, 5.9p.

Following on from lodan1 comments… Those bold enough to shaft us LTH today will be doubly tempted to shaft again and not invest to money towards construction, i.e. issue dividends instead of 11p, with a view to RAM, then taking the project private for a pittance offer. We’ll basically be left with the lower royalty stream

I’m far from excited… been in this circus since 2013 and my avg sp is just below 11p. Looking at a work out/ exit with damage limitation, even if I still need to sit this one through

Assuming LTH’s continued to hold… as I see, the next round of disappointment will likely be at FID (Dec’27) if ZIOC Board decide (in their infinite wisdom) not to invest in the project 12.75% and instead choose to distribute the 11p div per share. We’ll effectively be cut out, with the only dangling ‘prize’ on offer of a royalty stream, which RAM will almost certainly exercise their option on and reduce by half, i.e. ZIOC shareholders get 1.5p div per share for the life of phase 2 operations. Unless I’m misreading this scenario … you get today’s price +50%’ish for waiting until Dec’27, then another 5 years+ until phase 1 transitions into phase 2. Maybe still attractive for some???

Last orders at the bar please!

Yes, as per the other board, hoping for the 9th, but do appreciate it could just as easily be on the day itself.

The closely balanced share price in recent times is still perplexing me. I note the other comments about investor strategies buy/sell offsets and how there could be margin for an investor in that, but it does seem like an awful lot of effort vs the backdrop of large price swings (and potential losses) when we go through the boom/bust of good news fading into lower prices typically within days of an RNS…

A google search for the average share price for the last 30 days gave 7.56p. Hope this isn’t a prelude into a notional premium on buy out. Like Beardozer, the pennies may interest some but £1+ is a game changer for me also. My wife gave up the ghost on this year’s ago, so what little investment dignity I retain vests with ZIOC.

Yes, ZIOC management have skin in the game, but any special purpose entity could be established in the future structure with offers of ‘comfort’ packages, etc.

Roll on the 9th for facts vs fiction reveal.

Ps - I’m a hold only because I’m at my max comfort level/ exposure here.