Member Info for OofyProsser

Skwizz: I don’t understand this. Surely the factor that would collapse the company would be a duster in Turkey? There’s nothing any management can do about that now, it’s going ahead and will either succeed or fail. If it succeeds, investors will make a lot of money and all the optimists on here will tell us how clever Mr. Sanderson has been and how lucky they are to have him. If it fails, who’s going to put up yet more money in a placing or an open offer for a penniless company whose final bet on 36 has not come off? If they don’t get a placing away before the drill results are known, and in the event of a disappointment there, what’s the future for UKOG under any management?

The expression “it’s a case of rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic” is overused but in this case it’s particularly apt. What difference would new management make now? UKOG is committed in Turkey. Would fresh management get easier access to financing just because a rotten old management has been replaced by one of unknown quality? And would anyone with a good reputation in the oil industry want to risk undermining it by presiding over a decline into an AIM cash shell.

No matter how bad the current management are, they’re barely relevant to UKOG now. The issue here is the Turkey well. It will need to gush.

,,they should re-name this UK Oil and Giblets.

Ocelot: I see Flagstaff has cut and pasted Malcy’s regurgitation of the Angus loan on the Angus site! Desperate.

The CPR there was discredited before the ink was dry. Angus had neglected to tell them that the £2.5mm project had turned into a £17mm+ one (taking into account interest and delay costs).so the CPR is nonsense, through no fault of its authors other than to believe what Angus told them. In view of the costs blowout, why did Lucan not accept a loan of $20mm? It would have saved 15 months of delays at £2.5mm p.a. and cost them a fraction of the interest that their rescuers here are charging them. You can’t believe a word these managements tell you. He didn't get a bank loan because no bank would lend on Saltfleetby. Simple.

A CPR has to be up to date and it has to include all information relating to costs.

CynderLad: the Angus deal isn't what it seems. Angus has been living on credit for two or three months. They’re taking the full £12mm almost immediately, though they don’t need all of it, and will be paying interest (at an undisclosed rate but you can assume that it will be more than 12%) on the whole amount from the start. Their CPR, based on data supplied by Angus, was in March 2020, about the time when Angus discovered they were £12mm short of the money they needed to complete their £2.5mm project. This wasn’t in the CPR. In addition, the CPR cash flow estimates were based on increased production, from a sidetrack to be drilled from SF005. Instead, and without explanation, Angus recently announced they would be drilling it from SF007, from which up to 9 previous attempts have failed.

I wouldn’t look to Angus for an example. All they’ve done is secure the Board up to another year of generous salaries and perquisites.

Ocelot: I see Flagstaff’s big guns are being brought to bear at Angus, so you can concentrate your efforts here. Their announcement this morning has elicited a disappointing response. I think they forgot to reveal the interest rate! Still,,another Board of Directors kept in place for another year or so. That’s the important thing, what?

Cynderlad: if this first Turkey well is a duster, will investors continue to support more and more share placings?

..UKOG*

Has UOG ever issued 5bn. shares, or even 38%+ of the existing no. of shares, in a placing? Who’s going to put up £10mm. for this Board in one go?! I’m not sure that this is a realistic expectation.

gkb47: yes, and the rampers appear to disappear at weekends and holidays. Perhaps they’re not in the office then?

I find it alarming that smart investors on here can so easily guess the short term movement of the share price. Even when the outlook is pretty grim, they conclude that all this means is that there will be a ramp in preparation for a placing. Organised by the company and its brokers. And they’re so often right, they make useful profits trading in and out. Then down goes the share price again.

The dissemination of misinformation on the internet is clearly partly responsible - and the new availability of trading platforms to small investors. I had experience of the Perth and Vancouver exchanges some years ago. i thought they were the Wild West. But I’m fairly new to AIM and I’ve never seen anything like it.

gkb47: no, it’s not, though there is a very small chance that this Turkey well will find commercial oil. I think shareholders here are more likely to be left with the giblets though. It’s true Delia thinks they make good gravy but when I’ve tried them, it’s tasted bitter.

I’ve been amazed at what’s allowed on AIM. But so many people seem to know what’s going on, maybe it’s just a game that some are good at, others not. Fools will always find ways of being parted from their money. As long as they’re aware that they’re betting in the most unregulated gaming house in the UK..

Cynderlad: initially, probably inexperience/incompetence, possibly Mr. Tidswell pulling strings. Since the end of 2019, I think his primary motivation has been to preserve his salary and perquisites. These companies all share this characteristic: they’re not investments, they’re roulette chips and in the case of UKOG and of Angus, it’s all been shoved onto 36. They’ll keep them going for as long as possible. It’s relatively easy money for them - you can live well on the financial package and you choose the hours you care to put in. And there’s no one to hold you to account, this is AIM and it’s now a byword for absent regulation and for malpractice. Look at these bulletin boards. The more intelligent participants have noticed how it all works. Their posts here read like comic or bitter commentary. In fact, some of them are right on the money.

Mr. Sanderson appears to have had some reputation when he arrived at UKOG, which will have enabled him to dominate the Board - until now. He’s clearly grossly overpaid. He can’t have much influence now on the drilling of the well in Turkey, which is the key to UKOG’s survival. He and the bloke in Texas are essentially very well well paid passengers on this train. And it's too late for an EGM to do anything but rearrange the deckchairs, however much they need it. If 36 doesn’t come up, the train will hit the buffers.

Cynderlad: I agree with your views on UKOG and its management. However, regular interviews etc. with the management isn’t the answer, or even part of it. Lord Lucan has pulled the wool over the eyes of the owners of Angus almost since he was appointed Interim MD two and a half years ago (are they still looking for a permanent MD with some oil and gas experience? The owners of the company haven’t been updated on progress there). If such people in the top executive roles can get away with porky after porky with impunity, how can the owners of these companies trust anything they say?

Ocelot: “PS: to call an EGM without having a credible slate of new management candidates to propose is being disruptive, nothing more.”

Yes, having fresh candidates to populate the Board has done wonders for Angus Energy (another of your clients). What?

ZYX098: thanks for this. I agree with some of it. .However, if the price of oil carries on going higher, the Saudis and other Gulf producers will be pumping as fast as they can. It’s well known that Mohammed bin Salman’s concern is that Saudi Arabia will in the foreseeable future be left with much of its oil still in the ground, unsellable. Also, if it gets anywhere near $100 per barrel, they’ll be fracking like crazy again in the US. .And the more renewables are used, the lower the demand for oil and gas, no matter who produces it and how. I don’t see Saudi Arabia or the UAE/Bahrain/Oman/Kuwait/Qatar falling into the Russian or Chinese camp. Russia in any case is a weak power in terms of anything but armed forces and weapons, which it maintains at great cost to its economy. The Chinese are the threat to world peace. They claim their political system is “Communism with Chinese characteristics.” It isn’t. It’s National Socialism with German characteristics. It’s staring us in the face.

In any case, UKOG has to find commercial quantities of oil in its first well. Though it seems from reading some of the comments here that there may be enough mugs about to keep buying the shares after successive future placings. I've said it before: “you’ve got to know when to fold’em”. A prospective 20 billion shares! Nearly three for every person in the world. If everyone asks for share certificates, the finances here will be under further strain. Or will the management’s new responsiveness to shareholders persuade them to do a quick share consolidation once they’ve read this?

The principal beneficiary will be the environment. In any case, it hardly makes any difference to UKOG, does it? It’s got to drill the well first and find commercial oil.

..straits

Sting69: no offence taken! Good luck with it then. People do occasionally get lucky betting it all on 36.

Sting69: I respect you for the hard work and long hours you do. You sound like an excellent example of the decent private investors who have been sucked into stocks like this by unscrupulous, greedy managements and their brokers - and by the company shills who are very active on this bb - and a compliant regulatory system which offers you no protection at all.

It’s not the nay-sayers here that are to blame. It’s perfectly clear that they are right. The management has invested tens of millions in a lot of duds and has now put all its shareholders’ money - and some the shareholders haven't been asked just yet to put up , though the placing is coming - on a gamble on an exploration well (which the management refers to as an appraisal well) in Turkey. The only hope shareholders now have is that this will find commercial quantities of oil. If it doesn’t, UKOG should end up as a cash shell for a while, though shareholders have suspended disbelief in this lot for quite a while, maybe they’ll stump up more.

Watching your investment go down the plug hole is a poor investment method. If you can’t answer the question “Would I buy it now if I didn't already own it?”in the affirmative, you should sell it. Particularly with these AIM stocks. I wish you much better luck with your other investments.

They’ll doubtless pay themselves another 5% to compensate. The shares surely can't have gone up on this? And there's nothing in this to say the Directors can’t sell them, or that they have to subscribe.