Member Info for onlyagame

I was paying attention and remember the famous note left by the last Labour government ... " the monies all gone".

Does anyone believe MP's would honour the result of a second referendum? If leave won again does anyone believe the Remainers would simply say ok, or would a new round of ignoring the "will of the people" begin.
Integrity was certainly in short supply amongst those politicians who stood on a manifesto to honour the result of the referendum.

In 2015 there were approx 219 million shares issued, in 2019 there are 1,638 million shares issued, a dilution by a multiplier of 7.5. By my calculation a share price of £4 in 2015 is equivalent to 53p today. Even 20p - 30p seems a long way off....but possible in the medium term?

Can we assume the Labour manifesto in 2019 will not contain a pledge to honour the result of the referendum? Honesty has been in short supply recently.

Is this how rumours of a potential takeover start?

I saw that on Wednesday a trade went through for 1 share. I wonder if it is the same investor back on Friday with another trade for 1 share?

I have averaged down to 9.3p so will be holding for a good while yet.
Over 50% of my portfolio is in banks, for the dividend income, so the past week has been outstanding.

We posters broadly break down into three distinct groups;
1. Traders - buy in, take the profit, then get out. No brand loyalty, just make money - "who cares what happened 10 years ago". It is only the short term to be concerned about.
2. Long term investors (often like myself trapped by buying in @ £3+, busy averaging down when the SP drops below 4p, and too stubborn to take a loss).
3. Commentators - like Sain, who have a long term interest in the property market generally and to whom history matters.
It is the mix of views which make the message board so interesting and for some, confusing.

In my experience individuals had a much greater impact at firms like Lambert Smith Hampton where high fees were generated off relatively low volumes of transactions.
In lettings and agency success seems more likely to be down to hundreds of individuals in the branches generating business at a local level, often in spite of interference by Head Office and Group Lettings Directors.
On a different point, I have been revisiting the various forecasts about the impact on line estate agents were going to have on the industry generally. A number of early investors in on line agency were forecasting an impact of between 15% and 25% of instructions by now. The information is hard to come by but it appears the impact stalling at around 7% of new instructions going on line. Does anyone have more accurate information?

I had a look earlier at the 2015 Report and Accounts. It is breathtaking how far and fast this share price has fallen. In 2014 on the back of turnover of just over £700m+ profits of £80m+ were posted. In 2017 turnover was still as high as £627m. Goodness!!!

Mrs Platt's error was thinking Estate Agency was another retail business without understanding the fundamental difference between retailers in general and Estate Agents in that most people only move house every 10 or 11 years or so, so brand loyalty is a fairly nebulous concept in the Estate Agency industry. Agents have to work hard to constantly generate new business.
Although his job description is not yet clear, at least he reports to Paul Creffield who understands agency, so there is no chance of him repeating recent history. By the way, does anyone ever "learn the lessons" of history and past mistakes as they are generally and frequently repeated (for example buying estate agency branches as a means of expansion with the subsequent evaporation of turnover associated with those branches).

In IG10, an Abbotts branch, a Bairstow Eves branch and a Hetheringtons branch were merged into one office and re-branded John D Wood as a stonger brand name. This appears similar to re-branding Greene & Co as Hamptons. The powers to be still think that some of their brand names are much stronger than others.
When a small number of people in IG10 were asked about the John D Wood brand it was largely unrecognised locally whilst Abbotts, Hetheringtons and Bairstow Eves all had a reasonably strong local identity.
Perhaps all of Mrs Platt's retail experts have not yet been culled and only time will tell if the re-branding has a positive impact on the business, but as for now the jury is out on this exercise.

on.
The lessons appear to be that most clients did not recognise Abbotts, Bairstow Eves and Hetheringtons as being part of the same group. To the public there were now fewer agents in IG10 and the single Countrywide branch only picked up the normal amount of instructions for a single branch, not 3 times the volume of instructions. In E4, which is well served by Agents, people did not move to the next town/postcode to service their requirements but gave the work to the remaining agents in E4.

In 2017 in IG10 Countrywide had a Bairstow Eves branch, a Hetheringtons branch and an Abbotts branch. In neighbouring E4 Countrywide had a Hetheringtons branch. The retail experts decided to merge all four branches and put them under one roof as part of the cost cutting exercise and then rebranded the combined branches John D Wood as this was the strongest brand under the Countrywide estate agency umbrella. In the window of the closed E4 branch was a notice advising potential clients to visit the IG10 branch.
There is a Rightmove programme that allows agents to keep track of the performance of all the branches in a postcode.
In 2018 Countrywides instructions in IG10 had fallen by 60% and the remaining agents in E4 all reported a small increase in instructions as did the competition in IG10. Also the John D Wood brand was reported as being insignificant as a brand to potential clients outside central London.
People move on average once every 10 years and brand loyalty reflects this as the agent who gave great service 10 years ago will in the majority of cases moved

The point is they have hooked you and you keep responding to them and they thrive on the oxygen of attention.

Thank goodness for the filter button.

How can one invest without hope?
Hope is defined as an expectation of positive outcomes. All my investments are made on this basis.

Recent history; Countrywide's troubles began about 4/5 years ago with an aspiration to become a FTSE100 company. Platt was employed to achieve this and £200/300m was made available for expansion. Proving very few people learn from history, the CEO went about buying Estate Agent branches believing Estate Agency was a normal retail business and she was buying income. This policy proved flawed in the 1980's when first tried and the Agencies were sold back to the original owners for pennies in the pound. The CEO has gone, approximately £250m has been written off and a debt of £90m remains.

Now; the focus in on the core Agency business, the industry is suffering from one of several cyclical slowdowns in the housing market housing. Paul Creffield has led Agency through several downturns and is a relatively safe pair of hands. Surveying and conveyancing are still performing well. When the housing market recovers and transaction volumes increase CWD will start to perform. The strategy is to pay off the debt in the next 3/4 years. A revival in the share price will follow but I have always believed we are 2/3 years away from anything significant.

Online agencies still struggle to achieve a market share above 8%.

LSH will probably be sold off in the next 2/3 years.

I purchased shares at £3/£2/ £1. I also averaged down when the share price dropped below 4p. It could do so again, but I will continue to hold for the next few years.

Good luck to everyone who invests.

Do your own research, make your own decisions and never blame anyone else. The truth about the market is that no one knows, we are all guessing with some guesses being more educated than others - but the share price tomorrow may be up...or it may be down. Good luck.

Countrywide's turnover for 2018 was £627,000,000. As I understand it, the various "brands" are all wholly owned subsidiaries so are not able to remove themselves from the Countrywide group, as opposed to choosing to stay. As long as turnover remains reasonably high, you should expect a trading profit of circa £20m. If this happens the debt will be paid down by 2022. This is when the dividend should be resumed and when a decent rise in the share price can be anticipated.