Spectator article1 Nov 2018 12:06
Trump’s anti-Iran vendetta is starting to backfire
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/why-trumps-anti-iran-vendetta-cant-succeed/
Sunday, 4 November, marks the 39th anniversary of the storming of the US embassy in Tehran by Ayatollah Khomeini’s militant student thugs, beginning a 444-day hostage crisis that probably cost Jimmy Carter a second presidential term and took a toll on the collective American psyche since equalled only by the September 11 attacks on the Twin Towers and the Pentagon.
Coincidentally, it’s also the day America ratchets up already devastating economic sanctions against Iran, following Washington’s unilateral withdrawal in May from the nuclear treaty brokered by Barack Obama. No doubt Donald Trump will exploit the propitious timing to highlight how, four decades on, Iran remains, in his view, entrenched in its hostility to US interests in the Middle East.
How ironic, then, that casting Iran as a uniquely rogue state just got a lot more difficult for President Trump because of another notoriously undiplomatic act inside a diplomatic mission — this one by a 15-man Saudi hit squad on a murderous mission to silence a dissenter in neighbouring Turkey.
Officially, Trump is imposing sanctions on the heart of Iran’s economy because of the country’s alleged nuclear treaty violations and its failure to curb its ballistic missile programme. This is despite the fact that the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the European Union, Britain, Russia and China all remain convinced that Iran is abiding by the strictest monitoring programme ever imposed.
The endgame for Trump, though, is regime change. It’s a strategy based not on military intervention — the US would never dare to attack Iran — but on the hope that oppressed Iranians will rise up against the mullahs as they face the indignity of starvation without meaningful representation. The history of sanctions on regimes suggests a different outcome, because they provoke nationalist outrage among the population directed not so much at the ruling elite inside the country as at those who in a distant land so cruelly impose them.
Trump’s Middle East policy — anchored on supposed ally Saudi Arabia getting into bed with Israel to contain their common erratic foe Iran — isn’t gaining much traction at home either.
Even before the Saudis finally admitted that the Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi had died in a ‘fistfight’ in its Istanbul consulate, a poll revealed that only 4 per cent of Americans considered Saudi Arabia an ally. (Given the margin of error and the widespread revulsion caused by news of Khashoggi’s killing, there could now be literally no one in the US who holds such a positive view.) An Economist-YouGov survey last week also made for sober reading. Only 37 per cent of Americans now consider Israel to be an ally, a figure that plummets to 25 per cent for th