Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
In very simple terms:
1) ANGS is very profitable to trade short-term
2) To do that must look in here regularly (and can't resist mixing it up with the local trading legend, 0.80 to 3.00 to 0.75, awesome!)
3) Long-term positions have been disasters here
Note to readers, no one that invests for 3-5 year time horizons
1) haunt bulliten boards 24/7 decrying anything but bullish
2) sit and watch it negative four bag against them from a recent high
Draw your own conclusions, but nothing said passes the smell test.
Phil have seen it countless times, traders deal with problems in many different ways.
A small minority deal with stress by denying reality, attacking alternative views, and engaging in position talk to justify their exposure - and how the news is really great, it is just the market that is wrong. Eventually this method of decision making gets very costly, as averaging down and not taking losses is a certral part of the plan.
I say this as someone that has made all of the above mistakes in the past, have seen far better shares than ANGS go to zero while I held on all the way down. Honesty, flexibility, and logic are not easy in trading, but are attributes that must be learned.
Anyone running a position long position in ANGS has been crucified the last three months. Our most abusive poster is allegedly in for £80k, half his trading pot in ANGS!!!, and would have dropped £5k on yesterday's 6% decline in share price. Anyone investing here would do well to understand why some on here attack any view that is at all critical of the company. Just form your own opinion, and listen to all views and above all have some sort of risk/reward method to prevent you from sitting on big losses, but instead has you being patient with big winners. Good luck to all participants.
In terms he might understand:
There's a massive amount of sellers looking to cash in on any rally, spike - far, far more than when this was a 400m share float company.
To dumb it down to the right level, this means unless NEW buyers of 500m share emerge, then one or many sellers getting out of 500m shares will cap or decrease the share price.
Mostly here both for a possible long play if I see capitulation, and as a long time market player to learn the AIM investor pool and psychology, interesting to study the degree of position talk-bias in the face of irrefutable facts such as 0.85-0.90.
BV, what would it cost in liquidity points to shift a 10m share position during today's trading session?
Do you have any idea how you would measure liquidity risk here?
Please, give us the standard multi ID never owned any deluge, everything is just great for all 3.6 billion share owners...
Get over it Rob, maybe he's held a CFD here and is making oodles just in the last three months, not to mention 3 years, and yet as you and BV drum 'how much do you own" as if that was worth anything here.
All the pair of you bring to the board is attacks and insults, BV is the alltime champ for posts removed as when confronted with facts, that is all either of you can reply with. HITS may or may not have an agenda, and may or may not be on a big winning short exposure (no one long is this afternoon). As HITS has been consisitently proven right about most 'concerns' about borrowing, drill times and budgets, hedge costs, the list is long, maybe, just maybe try to learn the very bare basics of equity analysis as a foundation to making an investment decision. Or prove the above wrong by offerring some sort of analysis of why we are at 0.85/0.90 with all that cony flowing in 24/7.
Serious thought Rob, that the payday loan rates is the best on offer, and perhaps only loan on offer?
And the current share price / market cap is correlated with the lack of reasonable lenders?
Best wishes with your position here, a stort-term trading share has been my path to profits here.
"Alternatively, the Company and the Lenders, by mutual consent, may either agree to extend the bridge facilities until the Saltfleetby Field cashflows can be utilized for debt service or, convert part or whole of the Bridge Facility into shares at a 25% discount to the 30 day VWAP, subject to a floor of 0.4p/share, including in an event of default, in which case it will be at the Lender's option, if neither cure nor other remedy can be agreed between the parties."
Possible $25m new shares in a company with a current $43m market cap, yup, gonna rally fisth thing Monday.
They just released it after the close on Friday because the ink was still wet on the deal.
And I am still eating chocolates that the Easter Bunny left in my basket. Nothing to see here.
Lotta complex detail, SONIA + 15% is Capital One card rates though.
Skim read, if I have it right warrants on 300m new shares at 1.5p, and possibility that some or all of the £20m borrowing could be repaid with new issue of shares. Skim read says this was released after hours because initial reaction is going to hit the price, retest of recent lows on Monday. Good luck any long term holders, averaging down might see you drown in new supplies of shares unless your B/E is below 1.5p.
Finally some good news.
GL's departure is the big part of this news, the market likes that!
Global financing at 15% - maybe good news if can bullet payments to maturity, though with debt structures the details are everything. And forward hedges likewise crystalised for bullet maturity payments - details matter as no one defers cash arrival for free, and the precise charges will matter.
Storage, yes there is interest, though if it takes >£200m to make it real ANGS share will not be large after it get built, unless we can massively increase our revenues and market cap.
Until ANGS demostrates to the market they can manage their finances, and they to date have never done this, at best this is a quick trade share.
Position shorts at IG have been the wise guys all along. Some of the cheerleaders need to wake up and smell the coffee. BV, our insult champ of anyone skeptical, has taken a 3 bagger to a loss. Listen at your peril!
"So it will prove its value at some point when the market is ready, thanks for your concerns but they are yours not many of ours !!!"
Down over 50% since April tells us the market's view is very, very different than yours. Before you melted down you were last heard buying cheap shares at 1.32. BP knows wells and drilling, but use caution when he varies from production to trading or accounting.
Price performance over last 13 months is dire - down 70% from the high, agree some out there are haters, but the generally negative view people, and the short position traders, have been massively right.
Prospects here should improve assuming flows stay stable and or new wells increase production. Where the haters may have something is if ANGS management decide to spend significant funds on say geothermal, which has been mentioned very recently as something they are actively working on, and based on everything to date the market correctly is very skeptical of managements ability to arrange, finance and conduct a simple additional sidetrack based on recent form, not to mention something far more difficult like storage or geothermal.
Trading share for me, happy to be on the sidelines until news to change sentiment arrives. FOMO gonna move this today anyone?