RE: Today's RNS11 Dec 2015 11:20
Hi risk, long time no chat.
"I think the sooner we can get the 3 muskateers voted off the board and replaced by someone a little more fair with the fees they earn then all the better. "
- agreed but zero chance of that. Who's going to boot them off and take over the shell? No precedent for this for a DL company (as much as I would wish that).
"The current investments do not need much more than a little admin, with cash burn reduced significantly the listing begins to have value and the investments may well begin to hold value early next year as HH plans develop."
- this is an AIM investing company and as such it incurs much higher fixed costs than a standard listing shell (e.g. FBDU, which has got annual costs down to around £70k). There are NOMAD and listing fees and stuff, all of which rack up the costs. Even if the 3 musketeers decided to work pro bono (oh look, is that a pig trying to land at Monaco airport?!?!) then you'd still be looking at > £150kpa plc costs. There's no way the EVO costs for BoD and plc costs will be less than £250k for 2016, even with a fair wind.
That wouldn't have been an issue if the mcap was higher - a £250k fundraising on a £2.5m mcap company is ~ 10% dilution and arguably tolerable. The issue for EVO now (as opposed to 6 months ago) is that the recent SP slide has meant that the cost of capital is now much higher - i.e. they will have to issue many, many more shares to raise £250k.
Let's do some maths. 725m EVO shares. Using my pessimistic 0.05p placing price as an example and the need to raise £250k to pay the bills absolute minimum, you're talking about issuing 500m shares to raise that paltry sum. That's nearly doubling the shares in issue and would still be valuing the company at £660k mcap post placing (assuming the usual effect of the SP falling to the placing price occurs). So not only have you see the SP decline because of the discount, there is a double whammy that you'll have given up half your exposure to HH/Brazil/Noricum via the dilutive effect. I would have serious concerns as to whether they could get any placing away tbh, given how illiquid it is and how fast the SP is sliding (although if DL has one skill, it's getting people to pony up for placings).
We complain that DL pumps stock prior to placings but that is absolutely what he has to do - otherwise the degree of dilution for existing shareholders is much higher. However his ability (indeed, inclination) to pump EVO has disappeared it seems. The result is a really nasty situation where the running costs of the company are a significant fraction of the total mcap.
The laws of physics aren't going to change - and unless the Sp has a major rally the necessary capital raise will be very painful for current shareholders both with regard to the immediate SP hit from a discount placing, and longer term with regard to reducing their share of the u