Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
On the chart, BMN at 5p today looks like its sat right on a downtrend line that goes back to mid July this year.
A rise tomorrow would break that 5 month trend.
However It would currently take a rise to around 8p to break a much longer standing downtrend line that stretches back to the peak SP in Nov 2018.
The obvious thing required here for us all, including La M and Orion, to get full and fair value is for Glen to have a rival suiter for HZM's bountiful assets.
I believe that when any such bid emerges for us (post V DFS most likely), others will consider their potential interest.
After all there aren't too many HZMs (stage of development, potential and scale) out there to bid on.
In the same period as all this Nitrovan was being delivered to the US, China has been re-awakening too.
SHFE Steel rebar prices have been rising daily for 5 weeks.
From 3325CNY at the start of November to 3909 now. A rise of 17.6%.
Increased rebar demand means increased Vanadium required.
Mid 2024... We'll be producing and the nickel price will be moving HZM daily.
Assuming it is around 30k as now then I'm going with £1bn for A1, 300m for A2 (35% of npv), 400m for Vermehlo 10% of new DFS)
All in £1.7bn mcap (approx £5.20 per fully diluted shares (330m))
They will announce their partner in H1 2023.
They want to attract 20bn in capital to invest in base metals to meet the EV need.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vale-separate-metals-business-sell-122144555.html
So they need a 40% discount on the conversion £1.94 price so as not to disadvantaged (lucky them!) by the recent further raise.
That means converting at approx £1.20
If we were bought mid 2024 the CLN would be worth around $90m and would convert to 62m shares at £1.20 disc price as above.
That gives 268m + 62m =330m
Seems you were spot on all along Wasa. :)
Chinese prices for V are around $37 currently - below where they would be if the Chinese suppression of COVID policy wasn't in place. I expect them to be more around the $45 mark in 2023 as restrictions are lifted further. SHFE Steel rebar prices are a good measure to look at a lead indicator to see the rebound in activity.
That all said, I was looking back to see historic V prices this century.
FeV was around $8 to $9 for the years 2000/2001/2002 and even to get it to suppressed $37 you have to apply a consistent 7.5% annual compounded growth rate for 21 years.
Over that 21 years there were also 3 significant/severe spikes in price. The growth in Vanadium price of 7.5%pa has largely been as a result of it's increased usage year on year in steel/alloys/rebar etc..
Going forward as the uses for V diversify further in to vrfb and other green tech what will that do to the 7.5% long term growth rate.?
I think we're in the right place as China gets back in the game.