The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Surely the two weekly study has started dosing by now, they just haven't decided to notify us of first dosage - maybe they think the shareprice would react better when the first we hear is well into the study as results wouldn't seem to far away then for all of those impatient traders - granted we have seen quite a drop recently.
My thought is that even if they are being very picky in their screening, the moment they find a suitable candidate they are going to start treatment within days as speed is the name of the game with cancer treatment. Where treatment does take a few weeks to commence that is usually down to developing an individualised treatment plan. Our studies aren't really individualised since it is one choice of (pro)drug. No one wants to be waiting patiently as this timebomb inside them creeps ever towards the point of no return.
If it could maybe be weeks between finding and dosing the first patient to finally dosing the last patient due to how picky they want to be then maybe we won't hear till they are full or maybe they will just drop a surprise progress update on the fortnightly attached to the next C7 update and everyone frustrated thinking this study is long delayed is pleasantly surprised that we are well into it. Or maybe I'm just wishfully thinking.
Just had the sad news one of my colleagues is terminal with colon cancer, he is mid 30s with a couple of young kids which makes it all the more tragic. He went for tests in August but frustratingly administrative error delayed sending the sample off for tests till the end of the year.
Whilst I was being informed by our HR this afternoon all I could think about was how urgently we need Pre|CISION as the new standard of care especially if higher dosage rates and longer courses of treatment could prolong life and hopefully reverse well-progressed disease.
I am now just hoping and praying for a miracle RNS on Monday stating it will be the new standard for care and my friend finds himself being offered this new revolutionary treatment!
Just asking my favourite two sources (Google and ChatGPT) when cancer is considered to be in remission and there seems to be a consensus at the stage of 50% reduction you have reached 'partial remission'. At 65% tumour reduction our formerly terminal patient has more than met this. Will it keep shrinking? Are they a candidate for surgical removal now or shortly? I'm a complete layman but this has got to be good news right? :P
Surely the more Cohorts we suffer through and the higher the Dox dose; the more likely we are to end up with a treatment with a BED that can treat much more advanced stages of cancer - thus a bigger potential market! Could Cohort 6 and potentially 7 send these well advanced terminal tumours into remission by the sheer brute force of Dox concentration?
I'm as impatient as the next man but a part of me wants to keep seeing more Cohorts at higher concentrations to see what happens. I just wish they could be in tandem with an 1b trial at this stage!
I hear NUMAN are selling an over the counter form of AVA6000 with added Viagra for it's synergistic effects, my understanding is it makes it harder on Cancer...
Obviously, we are all eager to start 1b since that is where efficacy is meant to be proved (and after today how could it not?) But if we stopped now to start 1b at 2.25x standard dox which I'm certain would be highly efficacious in kicking cancer butt, would we be selling the platform short denying the opportunity of showing off some real show-stopping performance it could make right out of the gate at 2.7x or higher?
You only get one chance to make a first impression, the higher it goes the more absurd it would seem that any cancer could escape it (in my layman opinion) does delayed gratification by chasing ever higher approved dosage levels A. protect us from a result not quite meeting expectations and B. give us a greater chance of getting the kind of results which demand primetime coverage from TV, print and online News, not just because we can cancer treatment without the side effects but because it is so highly efficacious we'll all be keeping a tub of AV6000 in our medicine draws to beat cancer in such a casual way it is like taking a course of antibiotics to treat athletes foot.
"How's it going today Bob?"
'Oh Hi Randy, Doctor says I have Cancer, told me to take a course of AVA6000, should have it licked in 4 - 6 weeks'
"Damn, must be quite extensive then if it's going to take that long. I've got some of TESCOs own AVA6000 at home, I find the branded ones with added Caffeine keep me up at night"
'Yeah, why pay more for a name? But I have seen the AVA6000 NUMAN advertise late at night which promises to increase your libido.'
"That's probably just your Prodrug and Viagra, Tom. They'll stick it in anything these days"
'Was that a pun, Randy?'
"Yes, apologies Bob, I was trying to lighten the mood because you have cancer. Anyway, I need to get back to the Iron Lung because my Polio is really starting to tire my chest."
'Bless you Randy, pitty Polio isn't as curable as Cancer is these days.'
If we say it enough maybe we can will it into reality? Remission, Remission, Remission, Remission, rinse and repeat.
I posted a few weeks ago asking some of the more knowledgeable among you whether there was any expectation, at all that we could see remission in the 1a trials.
Thanks to those who explained the type of patient we have and that they are cases which are considered beyond the point where dox could be effective for them due to factors such as built-up resistance in the tumours. After today's RNS it is starting to sound like through sheer brute force, the AVA6000 is definitely having a therapeutic effect on a number of patients in stopping growth. Could additional time in those earlier cohorts start to kill the big C? And/or do people think at 2.7x standard dox the sixth cohort might give some of our patients with the big C the big R?
It seems that even in a trial which isn't looking as much for efficacy we could be seeing here some life-extending results. Makes it harder to doubt that 1b patients who will be considered ideal candidates for dox wouldn't be doing a driveby on those tumours!
In the words of The Janitor from Scrubs; when he assumes the role of Chief of Medicine "Let's make Cancer feel foolish!"
Avanti!
Thanks jive_turkey, what are the reasons it is unlikely in the P1a?
Please forgive the ignorance but is there any expectation or hope that we might see patients enter remission during the trials? I understand that the patients chosen for the trials are otherwise considered terminal but I do wonder if remission is on the table from 'pre-cision' guided dox treatment?
Market cap should be in the hundreds of millions with all our ducks lining up so can’t keep the SP down at these stupid levels forever!
Just looking at the DFS RNS again, to remind myself of the value here and right off the bat our feasibility study found we have an NPV of $559m. That gives us a share price of £2.15 a good 11x uplift from here. Now is that a starting point for takeover negotiations or should we be asking for more? Either way, greatly under valued here and certainly good times ahead but we all wait impatiently for that red dot!
Not far off. Then to double it and double it again!
Good to see a blue day here! Hopefully we have news imminent!
UK government and the US very interested in what we are doing here! Bidding war for resources?
How about out of the blue, today…
Good to see some recovery! Hopefully just the beginning, did we have a broker recommending 70p at current progress?
Haha excellent, I’ll take £2.14 for starters then!
Can someone help explain just so I understand, it is putting a “NPV at 10% (nominal) (7.3% real) of US$559.0 million as at 1 July 2022”. Does that mean they see the value of the mine as it sits today worth around £2.14 a share before we put spades in the ground? And a long term value of £8.24 ($2.1bn) with room to grow as we capture more of the downstream value processing the minerals?
Good luck all! I think we are in for a handsome reward. My target is 60p for starters :D
And when do you think I cash in my holding for £80-100 per share? I was hoping for a modest £30-50 per share but I much prefer your calculations!