Member Info for Odysseus07

initial positivity wearing off? Does the market now see this as no real concrete update/steps?

? Trial only statring in Q1 2021, 6 months, so looking at Q1 2022 at earliest. Is that the time scale people were expecting in Marc/June 2020?

Possibly right and good advice backinblack. The small trial though (with 50 people per arm) does have the risk of 1/2 people affecting the results in either a negative or positive way. But possibly not bad advice. Will consider

Agree - a solid 6/10 is the market response. The most positive news was for the licensing deal in one market (presume that is the USA)

Yes pure speculation by me. I just would have thought letting people know that meeting confirmed would avoid this SP drift. Then up or down depending on the meeting result.

I am less on edge. Will buy at 13p or below. So maybe tomorrow.

FUM said the third meeting with FDA would happen in October. No promise on when info about that meeting minutes (to finalise the 6 month trial requirements) will be released. Would assume November. But very quiet - you would have thought FUM would have said "date now confirmed for XX Oct". Makes me think it has been delayed. And no news at all on any initial thoughts from EMA on the FUM MED3000 submission. And Winter and Xmas are coming :)

The FDA meeting was meant to be in October. No news yet. And no news yet of any response from EMA on the approval submission.

dont give the exact amount Ijr1.... but was it low or medium buying today? And are you overall heavily invested or medium or low?

agree. It's a gamble. Which is fun. I think if this doesn't go up tomorrow or if it goes to 13p, I will have a fun gamble bet. And keep some funds in reserve. As someone advised me to do earlier :)

I think the market is reacting to a slight disappointment. Earlier in the year, I think the market investors were expecting some definite concrete good news by Q4. As it stands we are waiting for first EMA feedback onMED3000 submission. Waiting for details of third FDA meeting (that is meant to happen in October) and waiting for company updates on both. As well, the market is looking at cash balance reducing and no more news on a pharma partner / funding partner for the FDA trial/running costs. It's on a balance. Good regulatory news and investment news now, it goes to mid twenties again. No news by mid November on anything and it sinks to 9-10p.

not making not a problem. Sorry, typos. Rushing

Thats true. I did say that not maing money was a problem. Its expected for a biotech / small pharma. I agree. I did say other points as well. And i did say it could be a commercial success, just not a billion dollar blockbuster

In the main, i have just responded and tried to answer questions that other people, with different opinions, have asked me. I don't really see much back apart from "ED is worth $5billon" and "I doubt it is just a solvent - more than that". Seems to be just investing based on "approval soon and market not realised". Each to their own. Was looking for some analysis of different opinions.

The market values a company - based on cash assets, future growth, earnings per share, revnue, market capitalisation. FUM has under £2million pundsleft. Enough until May 2021. It has £35, 000 of revenue a year (i.e. nothing). It has not made a profit ever (fine, thats normal for small pharma) and the valuation of the company has dropped 90% since 2004 (but this very dependent on when you start the timings). It is banking on MED3000 approval or no company. And needs more capital - but there are risks to that. Bigger pharma companies are more conservative and may look at its undistinguished history and risky future and think "you know what, its likely this will take much longer/not at all and the ED market will suffice with generic viagra, cialis, levitra). What else do you need to know? Company values are market led and not based entirely on rationality as it also involves future growth and revenue. I'm just saying its a 100% gamble on MED3000 and it's not looking straightforward. hence the low market valuation for a company that some have said on here is about to launch a billion dollar brand. Unlikely. :) It may be commercially successful, but not on that scale.

My mater plan for worlddomination and FUM SP decrease is working! (cue evil laugh). Is it my messages??? Or is it just the market looking at the approval road map and risks

well, the best calculation. About 10 days ago the SP was 12.6p. So the market valued FUM as that. So far, it has about £2million in cash left and £35,000 of revenue. Do the math. :) Enough valuation?

Think you missed a lot of the details there. Details are important. But hey ho. Fair enough

Because as i said right from the start, i have worked on products that are "vehicles" for dry eye disease. So, no active ingredient but a solvent that can moisten the eye / cause relief. And they have been launched and been commercially successful. A vehicle (as opposed to a placebo) can have a beneficial effect based on its ingredients - it's just not an active drug. But, on the other hand, dry eye is not a serious condition like ED. And given my history of FUM and its many disappointments and the Phase 3 trial "failure" and FUM abandoning its flagship ED active ingredient for a vehicle solvent, does raise doubts from me. Especially as i see from this that a lot of investors dont actually understand the terminology nuances

Thats a fair point. I know. There is a risk I will miss the boat. But I do have £1000 worth of shares from about 10 years ago (would buy a lot more no than the price i got them for then).

Bucolic, honestly, you should read the RNS and website about the Phase 3 results. This is why the SP dropped - because everyone thought the "placebo" (I stress the speech marks) was just as good as the active ingredient, so FUM had no product, But there was a medium/strong effect on all patients (including severe ED) - just slightly lower effect than PDE5 inhibitors (i.e. viagra, cialis etc). So FUM thought, well ok, there is an effect on a robust Phase 3 trial.... we will stop the active ingredient work and go for the vehicle device route. Meaning no prescription, but pharmacy / OTC. This is what we / you are investing and gambling on. Not an active ingredient for ED. There are active ingredient trials for CBD and pain. But not now ED. Im afraid FUM have made it very clear that IS what we are investing in. Hence my doubts. If you dont know that Bucolic, then you (win or lose) have invested on ignorance and it's just pure luck, not judgement. I could also over think things and miss the boat. Thems the risks for both of us in our different ways. Good look to all, even you Bucolic.

You are entitled to an opinion, yes. But are you an expert scientist, like at FUM? I'm not. So I woudl trust the company and their experts (after 10-15 years development) to know what it is they have. Rather than an investor who has no (as far as I know) relevant expertise and who does not have all the FUM data and details.