Member Info for Observe1

This share is not cheap, good bit lower to come.

Revenues falling

Operating P+L falling

PE ratio at 10.4X should reflect 7-7.5X

Litigation in the States

40 is fair, 30 is cheap!!

Management dump of shares will not inspire a turnaround in SP anytime soon.

Expect a further shake down.

BATS fully priced, holding its own for now only via share buybacks.

Revenues in decline as it changes its risk profile to EM; level of debt unsustainable against revenue and earnings growth; dividend growth unsustainable against earnings.

Exceptional SP level to walk away.

Great summery JH. Appreciate the effort.

Still a big number to go to reach a billion in outstanding shares. Price will remain elevated until the tail end is reached.

Cooking or Cuckoo as JH calls him has always been something of an oddball! Never did know if he was Arthur or Martha!

You should relax Cooking, let the intellectuals do the driving and you sit back and enjoy the ride. Stop kicking above your weight! You have never known when to take your chips of the table and when the SP blows cold you get into a right mess. If your average holdings price is above E10, take your chips off the table and go light a candle to the bank who came to the rescue with this share buyback. No one wants to listen to your whining post share buyback!

Excellent summery on the share buyback status @JohnHume.

If your call on timing of completion is right then the SP will remain firmly underpinned, for now.

Headwinds are growing however and once the underpin is completed, beware. At European and US bank level there appears to be pressure on the lending margin, the mainstay of banking and definitely so in the case of the Irish banks. For some reason they (Irish) have been able to get away with continuing to pay zero on call funds and for now appear to have been prepared to partly negate the full hike in lending rates, in particular to mortgages. This game in the US is about to break out, with massive backlash on zero bank rates when the curve is above 5% in the short end.

The other big issue is growth. No reason why BoI is going to outperform their performance in 2023. This year they do not and will not have a bump up from acquiring a good sized loan book. A net reduction of lending of E5b will not look pretty at the end of the year.

@ Trudemill

Your analysis did not mention the word growth once. Without the purchase of the KBC loan book in 2023, BIRG would have showed negative loan growth of E7.7 billion. With KBC in they showed growth of E300m. They also appear to be exiting the UK market, so no future growth from there. For all intends and purposes they are not permitted to spread their wings into other markets outside of Ireland.

Management point out that the call on PBT in 2024 is down on 2023. That changes all your smart ratios!

If your number on NAV at 0.8 is correct then best look at where European Banking is trading on this ratio. 0.65????

Ex growth is not a good space to be in. You may pass go and collect dividends in the future but you can kiss the SP goodbye.

Capital ratios good

Cost ratio very good

Payout (dividend buyback) very good

PBT 2023 @ 1.9b miss

PBT guidance for 2024 lower. Negative

Loan book at +7.7b in 2023 includes loan book of 8.0b purchased from KBC. Net BoI loan book growth in 2023, negative!

This share is ex growth and profits move lower going forward. Its SP above +/_ 50% of NAV is generous in EuroBank terms. Price range in 2024 (from here) 6-8 Eur.

Sorry all. You missed the generous tops of 10 E plus! Time to sell!

Why don't you two take your duet and shove it where it belongs!!

Pathetic rubbish!

No hope of that with you still posing on this Board!!!!

Suggest you do what Elon suggested to his distractors PC, GO --- YOURSELF!!!!!!!!

And while you are at it take that nutter, Cooking with you!!!!!!!!

Clearly this site has become a pit of vipers since I sold my holdings!!!!!!!!!!!

Great post John Hume!!

One loses sight of the overall moves from low to high. As @ Aston says, nose bleed stuff!! If Birg is not in play then profit taking will take place!! It is certainly not a growth story nor a management dynamic story.

See @ Cooking has warmed up a touch on the forum. Far cry from the beggar when the SP blew through €3 and the lad was scratching in his nut bag!

No regrets on my horse in this run!! Made 250k, gave up on another 250k. Not a big deal. Look forward to the next round...whenever that might be!!

@JohnHume is correct.
Stabilization process used in the issuance of bonds for institutions, in this case BIRG. UBS/MS have the mandate to place the issuance.
Nothing to do with equity in this instance.

@Joeoh33
If you follow the discussion below, the chances are zero.

Certainly do not disagree with your analysis @ JohnHume.

No question that 2021 was a bumper year and yet management offered a scrap of 10% of ATP in dividend and buyback. This was their past attitude as well (in spite of some lordy pronouncements re 50% of ATP payout).

I see no change in this attitude from current management and if you reconcile to the numbers on the site we have discussed then one is on a hiding to nowhere. In this scenario I would suggest that the current SP in generous and could as easily be justified 1c lower!!!!

Let's see what fresh pronouncements are made but if you are looking for some Christmas cheer, then look elsewhere.

This is the point @ JohnHume.
Based off the figures given on this site you are looking at a 40% drop in ATP in current year which is effectively over, being November. Bear in mind that these numbers include a 2% hike in EU interest rates which someone on this platform claimed was worth E350m per 1% to BIRG.
So to the disappearing profits and with it the certain disappearing buyback/dividend.
Banks can only disappear profits by
1) Dropping NIM. This is possible as I believe that the Irish Banks did not raise their lending rates in line with the ECB.....altruistic or dumb????
2) Provisioning. They still, have NPLs of c4% on their B/S, can drop that number to 1% before they release dividends;
3) Way over paid for Davy. That platform only releases profit after bonuses have been paid. Their future remuneration was locked in as part of the sale to BIRG. BiRG will, see zero return from Davy for the first 5 years, having paid €400+ for it!!!!

So based on what we are being shown as independent numbers (not in house Davy numbers, which then conveniently disappoint come Feb) who exactly is going to pay up for this share?? I have made peace with my decision and had the temerity to ask the question as to who else has done their numbers?????

Not at all @Radar. Do not underestimate the type and quality of certain people on this platform!!

The information suggested for analysis by me from the info site provided by @ Irish_Renegade is absolutely relevant to determining a projected SP 12 months forward. I had already done my analysis and then got shouted down (by some, not all) when I suggested a top in SP at these levels. Now one should ask the question of alternative analysis and not just seat of the pans throw away!!!

Useful and interesting site there @ Irish_Renegade.

Looking at the projected NI, AUM, EPS and Dividend Payment on this site, is there anyone on this forum that is arguing a case for a SP above current levels?

One has to wonder what we have done to deserve this half witted idiot with three personalities. There has not been one sane comment from him/her since he/she infiltrated the platform post covid (minus brain matter) and he/she continues to rattle on with zero knowledge, an inability to judge whether it has bought or sold and completely clueless on how a company/bank operates!!
Time indeed for the undertaker!!!

@ Irish_Renegade. As I pointed out below, not only have I read my recent posts, but have acted on them iro my holdings!!

Am unaware that commentary on this platform is sacrosanct!! You read: you like, you don't like; you react, you don't react. Your portfolio is your problem, your trades are your problem. You feel you can do better, go for it or go pay for advice from the Lords on Dawson street!! See how that works out!!!

Long story short....stop whining!!!