Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Broker notes are 47p and 50p respectively with Finncapp and Arden. Less than 50% at current price.
'transformational' and 'back to 40 pence' were CFs words two weeks ago. So far - zip. You'd like to think with a presentation planned for 9th August, that will change.
Agree with the sentiment of the initial posts that more focus is needed on the core business and how that is going to grow rather than additional assets. Strongly sugest somebody puts this to CF at the next webinar. I could be way off the mark but I have held a suspicion that OO are due a further UK gov related contract. For one, the timetable applied to the antiviral taskforce is insanely tight and there have been (gov) documents publicly circulated outlining the need for HCS. I have been a little surprised and disapointed that nothing material has come out of this taskforce since launch in April - but remember, the exact same silence preluded the vaccine taskforce and their contract with OO. For me that's an area of key interest, and one I'd like CF to put some flesh on at the next presentation - or make it clear to PIs that that isn't their next target (if he can do so). I think it's also the case that a number of other items are being held in silence making it difficult for OO to convey some exciting developments. E.g they're unable to comment on Codagenix, unable to comment on characterisation results (and subsequent...) and unable to identify some of the precise details (£) around newly signed contracts. I am eagerly watching for when CFs next webinar will be, and in the unlikely event that he reads this board / post I very much hope to see him before the month is out.
Agreed, broker note to follow and hopefully better informed than previous guestimates (Fincapp)
Looks it to me - you only have to look at the activity of this board to see theres a heck of a lot of derampers (and some rampers) trying to get their lines in. I've also topped up again just before the bell. Roll on Poolbeg, antivirals and Spins 2 - 5.
Well said 1GW. Ultimately, this will divide investors into two camps. Those who value the core offering as LTHs will do nothing and collect their free shares. Those on short term trades will take advantage of volatility and leave. Irrespective of the extent of this weeks movements, the facts remain that imminently following this week will be:
A) CF increased holding
B) Characterisation study results (with likely repercussions on unlocking studies / contracts)
C) Inevitable taskforce involvement
(plus 4 div spec to come July - Dec 2021)
Question: Sequencing of results news v spin off news. Both due in days/weeks. Do we think the spin off news comes pre or post results?
Agreed, the difference between 33 / 34 / 35 is negligible. This will be passing ATH over the coming months, and in particular if / when any antiviral contract lands - which lets face it has (pretty much) been confirmed already given A) Challenge study lead recruitment to the taskforce!, B) CF said as much in his pres and C) the tight timeline of the taskforce for autumn....its the 8th of June guys.... If you started on a full trial today - even with a small sample, you would not achieve results and publication by Autumn. IMHO it's there in plane sight so anyone who wants to see it, but DYOR and all that.
Padrock.........what is that based on? btw I'd love you to be right, but I can't see it myself. I saw your 8 reasons posted previously, but they're all factors that could equally mean nothing to do with a takeover. Do you have any substantive signs of an imminent takeover?
IMHO the 'news' to speak of come the 2nd June will be either or both the next step in HCS for UK gov, or the announcement awaited on Spin off no.1 being finalised.
If a TO is on the cards - what is the basis for making an offer now, and what level of offer do you anticipate (given its you who is touting this possibility) ?
Clear that the news on spin out 2 (Prep / Poolbeg murmours) is dovetailing the conclusion of setting up spin out 1. Very clever time management. Lots more to come from OO!
lol whilst I can see how that may seem unfortunate - you've little to worry about here. Post again in 3 months and I expect you'll be pretty happy with your lot. Not going to repeat the endless list of + points in OO favour over the short, medium and long term.
Fully agree. I was LTH before today and the RNS made clear the direction of travel. The £3m is totally irrelevant in the schem of things. The point is we're being paid to develop a challenge agent that is only of any use whatsoever if you intend to test it - this is a gateway to future RNSs and IMHO the big thing to note from the RNS is 'vaccines or antivirals'.
If you've been awake the past month it's patently clear that in addition to vaccine testing via Wellcome, Pharma etc, antivirals are coming too and I don't see how its possible that Orph won't get a look in on this given it is the fastest, most direct means of testing antiviral (and therapeutic) products in controlled settings when infection levels have dropped in the UK. This is a big RNS in the making IMHO
Haha £3m is below expectations....!?!?! What does that even mean? £3m is £3m. It's £3m more than close Friday last week. It's also totally irrelevant as the substantive part of the RNS isn't about the contract value, it's about the context.
Orph are partnered with HMG
Orph are partnered with Wellcome
Orph are partnered with Imperial (and to a lesser extent Oxford) Universities
They're just been (paid!) to develop a SECOND challenge agent/strain that is totally pointless UNLESS the world is intending to test said variant / strain against vaccine or antiviral products - ergo, this is LITERALLY a payment that enables Orph to receive future contracts for said testing.
Wellcome (if you look at their website) are in the midst of a drive for developing vaccines via HCS for LMICs.
HMG are already paying Orph for initial HCS on the original variant (and this enables additional testing on other variants).
HMG have just launched the antiviral taskforce, and should they seek to mirror the vaccine taskforce in procuring HCS they will need up to date variant agents (such as this one announced today) to test antivirals against.
Context is everything in this RNS. £3m is just a bonus.
That is interesting. CF has said many times that he retains his original stake in AMRYT. Perhaps a similar destiny awaits OO..
1 week since the votes were passed on Spin-off-1. Possibility of an update before the end of the week
In fairness, the article is quite clear that the SP will continue to rise post demerger - so whilst they might have their facts wrong (sort of), the sentiment is the same as LTHs - solid company, profitable and growing
Prep surely
I've read and re-read the RNS out of paranoia and either I'm missing something and a whole group of us are about to be dumped on, or ......I can't understand what e.g Motley Fool and others are on about either..........I don't get it. Either way - I'm in.
Agreed - really anyone willing to watch will see this enter another repeat cycle upwards, as has been the case as the business grows month on month over the past year
Sorry - struggling to join the dots here. I saw the FT article, but what is the connection to ORPH here...?