Looks it to me - you only have to look at the activity of this board to see theres a heck of a lot of derampers (and some rampers) trying to get their lines in. I've also topped up again just before the bell. Roll on Poolbeg, antivirals and Spins 2 - 5.
Well said 1GW. Ultimately, this will divide investors into two camps. Those who value the core offering as LTHs will do nothing and collect their free shares. Those on short term trades will take advantage of volatility and leave. Irrespective of the extent of this weeks movements, the facts remain that imminently following this week will be:
A) CF increased holding B) Characterisation study results (with likely repercussions on unlocking studies / contracts) C) Inevitable taskforce involvement
Agreed, the difference between 33 / 34 / 35 is negligible. This will be passing ATH over the coming months, and in particular if / when any antiviral contract lands - which lets face it has (pretty much) been confirmed already given A) Challenge study lead recruitment to the taskforce!, B) CF said as much in his pres and C) the tight timeline of the taskforce for autumn....its the 8th of June guys.... If you started on a full trial today - even with a small sample, you would not achieve results and publication by Autumn. IMHO it's there in plane sight so anyone who wants to see it, but DYOR and all that.
Padrock.........what is that based on? btw I'd love you to be right, but I can't see it myself. I saw your 8 reasons posted previously, but they're all factors that could equally mean nothing to do with a takeover. Do you have any substantive signs of an imminent takeover?
IMHO the 'news' to speak of come the 2nd June will be either or both the next step in HCS for UK gov, or the announcement awaited on Spin off no.1 being finalised.
If a TO is on the cards - what is the basis for making an offer now, and what level of offer do you anticipate (given its you who is touting this possibility) ?
lol whilst I can see how that may seem unfortunate - you've little to worry about here. Post again in 3 months and I expect you'll be pretty happy with your lot. Not going to repeat the endless list of + points in OO favour over the short, medium and long term.
Fully agree. I was LTH before today and the RNS made clear the direction of travel. The £3m is totally irrelevant in the schem of things. The point is we're being paid to develop a challenge agent that is only of any use whatsoever if you intend to test it - this is a gateway to future RNSs and IMHO the big thing to note from the RNS is 'vaccines or antivirals'.
If you've been awake the past month it's patently clear that in addition to vaccine testing via Wellcome, Pharma etc, antivirals are coming too and I don't see how its possible that Orph won't get a look in on this given it is the fastest, most direct means of testing antiviral (and therapeutic) products in controlled settings when infection levels have dropped in the UK. This is a big RNS in the making IMHO
Haha £3m is below expectations....!?!?! What does that even mean? £3m is £3m. It's £3m more than close Friday last week. It's also totally irrelevant as the substantive part of the RNS isn't about the contract value, it's about the context.
Orph are partnered with HMG Orph are partnered with Wellcome Orph are partnered with Imperial (and to a lesser extent Oxford) Universities
They're just been (paid!) to develop a SECOND challenge agent/strain that is totally pointless UNLESS the world is intending to test said variant / strain against vaccine or antiviral products - ergo, this is LITERALLY a payment that enables Orph to receive future contracts for said testing.
Wellcome (if you look at their website) are in the midst of a drive for developing vaccines via HCS for LMICs. HMG are already paying Orph for initial HCS on the original variant (and this enables additional testing on other variants). HMG have just launched the antiviral taskforce, and should they seek to mirror the vaccine taskforce in procuring HCS they will need up to date variant agents (such as this one announced today) to test antivirals against.
Context is everything in this RNS. £3m is just a bonus.
In fairness, the article is quite clear that the SP will continue to rise post demerger - so whilst they might have their facts wrong (sort of), the sentiment is the same as LTHs - solid company, profitable and growing
Absolutely, and as for the raising of funds............does anyone seriously think that you announce a spin-off without already having funds lined up - I do not think so, this isn't the lottery. CF will have already spoken at length with prospective backers, and the window between vote resolution - end of May is for finalising plans that will already be in place.
Really exciting time to be in Orph, and this is round 1 of potentially 4 spin outs. Watch this space!
I've read and re-read the RNS out of paranoia and either I'm missing something and a whole group of us are about to be dumped on, or ......I can't understand what e.g Motley Fool and others are on about either..........I don't get it. Either way - I'm in.
RE: Short term dip & LTH buying opportunity21 Apr 2021 15:15
Mark's spot on, just look at the past 12 months charts - this is literally the same pattern being repeated (and it will happen again, and again, each time rising as the business grows). This has nothing to do with any notion of 'post covid' except for traders who A) still haven't twigged that there is no such thing as post covid and B) that OO isn't a covid play - it just happens to ALSO cater to that immediate need. DYOR as always, but selling because the price has retreated after ATHs is a one-way ticket to losses IMHO
Mark good question, I wondered the same - though my reading of the circular was that the £39m comes from the background capital restructuring, rather than cash in the bank ready to go (but I bow to others in this regard). Either way, let's see the next slide set with an up to date figure. BTW I'm not in the slightest concerned over the matter, just angling for more insight as to the month on month income CF has talked over many times since Q4 2020. Just added a smidgen to my holding as for me the SP is in its typical cycle as we've seen post news the past 12 months or so. Good time to add IMHO.