Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
one thing's for sure - it's a fool who predicts with any certainty what the price of oil is going to be in the future. I got back in because I thought there had to be value after the oil price went negative - it was unlikely I'd lose from there.
Char333 - there are so many variables to the RDSB share price. Yes the dividend is a factor but so is whether we get a Covid vaccine, what OPEC+ does, whether there are major incidents in an oil region, whether shale revives, the state of China's economy, degree of driving in US etc. £18 could happen within the next 18 months depending on various factors. It'll certainly be interesting if there's a successful vaccine.
A lot depends on the vaccine trials. Success with the trials over the next few months would make £20 possible within the next 18 months. Oil came back quite quickly after the previous financial crisis when the doomsayers said it wasn't possible.
Mandrill - I have sympathy for your position. I held Shell and HUR until recently but got out because this looks to me like the start of a recession. I've kept RBD because I still think there's still some upside before the markets including oil really start to tumble. The market has nothing against you personally though. We've had 10 OK years since the Crash. If this is a proper recession then the best approach imo is to sell & retain your money until things turn around. Recessions have a habit of changing company plans. Hopefully HUR will be in good shape to weather a genuine recession. There are a few here in a HUR bubble who won't realise the dangers for some time yet.
To the recession doubters - we're already well on the way there. The UK economy contracted in the second quarter of 2019.
Previously US & GB leaders haven't deliberately undermined their economies for dogmatic reasons. Undermine your trading relationships and you risk recession.
The funny thing WW is that you should be far more worried about the potential for recession than anything to do with HUR. The sp may be reasonably robust now but it won't be in the event of a recession and it's become a lot more probable with the increasing trade war.
That's what I'm waiting for. Sadly though thanks to Trump's actions we'll probably be in the mid 30s by the time of Lincoln news. Have to question whether it's worth being in the market at the moment.
I'm generally a believer in sitting on my hands and waiting for the HUR story to play out. However I do have concerns there are a number of factors around which could lead to recession. If that happens, from previous experience, all the oil shares will struggle. I'll certainly wait for Lincoln and keep an eye out re the wider investing environment.
To be on the losers step permanently there would have to be issues with Lancaster - what evidence do you have for this?
Agreed. This was supposed to be the year we saw value here. Very disappointing - it looks as though it will take quite a while just to get us back to 60p.
FF - agree with you. I've held HUR shares for 4 years but I'm happy to hear from someone who trades. I think it might be the best course of action to hold on to these for some time to come but might it be best to take some off the table around the announcement of FOIL if we get a bit of a spike? Also what might happen to the price of oil if a recession does happen later this year as some are suggesting.
I really appreciate the views of those with an oil background. However there is a danger that if posters that see things differently from the clubby members of this board are sent packing then confirmation bias can creep in.
Not surprised there's been a sell off. This is usually the case after an anticipated rns. The posters who claim £1 at Foil aren't doing anyone any favours. My target is 75p and even that might be ambitious. Can only see a sell off again when the Foil rns arrives.
'Thats a shame, not going to be able to monetise this asset now as no one would buy it without further drilling and testing which i can't see happening. The extra £750K spent to increase share has turned out to be a waste of money.
Desperately need a good result in Cali now as pressure is on'.
I feel that's a fair summary. Good luck to shareholders who re-invest in this share but I wouldn't average down here again. Colter is not a devastating blow to RBD like it is to BOIL but I feel it's created a ceiling for this share. Having a number of options is great but I feel that Wick and Colter will hang over RBD. Malcy will no doubt state again that the £750k extra investment was worth doing but this has reduced the contingency and it's increased the potential moving for another raise. If you were an oil company would you get involved in investing in Colter now for minimum rewards, particularly given the local opposition? If Monroe comes off we'll be lucky if the sp gets back to where it was at its peak yesterday.
I do feel it's worth waiting for the Monroe results but will sell after that.
sorry meant Hillary Benn's amendment take parliament further away from No Deal.
The market may take a bit of a hit after the vote tomorrow. However, everyone's known for at least 6 weeks that the PM will lose the vote. Other factors also come into play like will Hillary Benn's amendment pass that might take parliament further towards 'No Deal'. Labour may trigger the no confidence vote but that'll be defeated. It may depend on what option the PM comes back with after her vote is defeated. A week will certainly be a long time in politics this week so difficult to predict exactly what the market will do.
there are plenty of oil shares where Malcy has got it right. I gained respect for him as a result of his criticism of XEL. He didn't like their business model and was proved correct. He wasn't the only reason but he played a part in me getting out before XEL sunk and recovering my position by buying HUR. I feel he's been pretty accurate re HUR so far and he talks sense re RBD too.
I don't have any issues with Malcy. At least he's done an interview or 2 with Dr T which I've found helpful. Today I welcome that Malcy and others have advised that there isn't any other issue than the weather. If we hadn't had that info then there would have been a few who might have wanted to muddy the waters for their own benefit. Why give shorters a free passage?
Nigwit - I'm sure there are posters who are over-invested. However, many of us have been in this share for 4 or 5 years plus. It's only natural that FOIL feels like a major milestone for us and is hopefully the key to the sp making significant progress. Sometimes I'm glad that I have a full time job otherwise it could all get on my nerves a bit. Even on a working day I tend to look if there's any news at lunchtime and after work. I agree you have to play the long game but sometimes it's a trial of patience.
Cadell - I do find Ad-Uk's posts entertaining. Although on this occasion I'm a bit suspicious. He revealed his hand when he stated that he'd recently made £2k on the sp drop and recovery. Well I sense that he wouldn't mind trying to repeat the trick. Therefore why not try and add to the uncertainty by claiming there could be a serious problem and hope that HUR don't release a RNS explaining that the reason for the delay is the weather.