Member Info for ns_99

Agree with this entirely. Retail becoming bearish on this might actually be a good indicator of a bottom.

Boohoo is a cyclical investment. At this point in time margins are compressed (supply chains) and outlook is weak with lower consumer demand. If you can simply hold until the next cycle (increased margins) will make this a great investment. 5yrs + definitely a multibagger.

GLA DYOR

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-29/ukraine-update-kyiv-seeks-cease-fire-deal-in-russia-talks?srnd=premium-europe

Good sign for Boohoo, should ease supply chain issues.

Smartie06, what I find more worrying is the divergence between the bond and equity markets. The market seems to think that the FED won't have the stomach to raise rates to a level that would stop inflation. This could cause massive volatility if there is a sudden policy shift. Very tempted to lighten my position at 1.07 come May.

DC2007, think you also raise some good points. Best case scenario, BOO recovers and grows at 20-30% a year again. Think this is unlikely unless BOO cracks the US market.

I'd disagree about no brand value. If we look at the price range, BOO has the best marketing in my opinion. Sure the quality of the clothes are awful, but they follow trends of social media extremely well.

In my opinion the greatest risk to BOO isn't the consumer. Think they have proved quite resilient to issues (supply chains / poor quality). In 2024, there will likely be a GE. If Labour gets in, which I think they will, there will be significant pressure to reform the fast fashion market, which could destroy BOO. In that case this would be more of a cigar butt investment.

Smartie06, think you are spot on about the possible risks to markets. If the yield curve inverts that usually means a recession, and added to geopolitical induced supply chain issues (esp energy) this could be a tricky time for markets.

However I think BOO will do ok. Sure, 30% CAGR will likely be a thing of the past, but revenues will remain constant providing that management move prices in line with inflation. People will continue to buy clothes, and BOO has no debt. Think this is crucial here. If there was debt I'd be far more negative on the stock. Acquired brands provide a good runway for the next 5yrs and I'm confident that BOO will reach 5bn revenue by then, and if we have a 5% margin, that £250m profit makes this investment very attractive.

We are due a monetary tightening cycle for the foreseeable future. I'd set a price target of £3 for this stock when I bought it originally. If it goes near that I will derisk my position and have cash on the side for a potential policy failure by one of the central banks. If Boohoo is at a 30-50 p/e I think it is a good idea to derisk and move into more defensive assets.

No intention of selling now, but if the sp hit £2 in the next 6-12 months I'd heavily consider selling some of my position.

I'm a LTH in this Tango-Cash. Think it is important to be realistic about future movements however.

Have problems been sorted? Supply chains issues are still here and cost of living issues may remain for a while. Add a recession risk and inflationary problems, the market may be very volatile for the next 12-18 months.

Pf-78, I think you should look to buy more when there is a pullback here. Very likely that this will be back down to the 80-90p mark again. Maybe a limit order for 85p? Then I think you should look to sell into the liquidity when the shorts end up covering. That way you still have capital in the game but lower exposure. This is what I plan to do with my £1.07 position, as I have a smaller one at 64p.

Crazy to think this was at 63p a few weeks ago. A new trading update, shifting sentiment and everything looks great for the stock. Hopefully this is a start of a rerate to the £1.50 mark where I think fair value lies. Wouldn't like to be a shorter right now.

Will we get full year accounts on this date?

Wondering if someone could explain why management are saying product mix is causing higher return rates.

Far more likely this is shorts dumping shares they covered last night. Volume is extremely low compared to yesterday.

I'm more concerned about gross margin decreasing due to hydrocarbons being used in the manufacturing process. Hopefully oil prices subside in the near future with OPEC increasing production.

Think we will have to wait until the May update for detailed metrics. Seems like management are carefully selecting information to be released to the market

Brilliant reaction to the TU from the market. Props to everyone who has held through the last three months of hell. Hopefully this will be the start of more usual trading sessions from now on :)

99p with a flake was it hahaha you don't have a clue mate

4% not 6.5%