Member Info for NoQuestionMarks

Thanks for the answers NKOTB and upomega, it seems we all read it the same.

Any amount of borrowing under the new RBL is tied to hedging of at least 25% of production (Rhum excluded) in year 1 and 15% in year 2.

And, if we use the RBL to fund an acquisition we are looking at 50% hedging in yearc1 and 30% in year 2.

I wonder what the hedging requirements would be for the accordion feature? Higher than 50% in year 1 I would have thought.

Thanks again

I'd appreciate an educated answer to this question regarding the new RBL facility and hedging please.

Our new facility is for $525m (with an accordion feature for another $525m potentially)

Our current RBL facility has $271m drawn which will be repaid in full by the new facility.

So, we will have then drawn $271m from the new facility.

$271m is more than 50% of the $525m available.

The terms of the new RBL state...

"If 50% or more of the amount available is drawn, the minimum commodities hedging

requirement is equal to 50% of forecast production from the Borrowing Base Assets in year one and 30% in year two. The hedging requirement is halved if less than 50% of the amount available is drawn."

Reading that I assume we are going to have to hedge at least 50% of production in year one and at least 30% in year two...

Am I right or wrong?

If we can get out of there with no legacy commitments and $2.4bn in the pot I'll be delighted.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-sell-big-piece-nigeria-172936105.html

Analysts finally catching on to what we have known for the past 6-12 months.

The chance to buy at under £14 was the biggest giveaway since being able to buy Shell for under £10.

Supply up / demand down.

U.S. gasoline stocks increased by 10.9 million barrels to 237 million barrels total for the week ending Dec. 29, according to data from the Energy Information Agency. Motor fuel supplied to the market, an indicator of demand, fell by 1.2 million barrels per day to nearly 8 million barrels per day total.

I think we are at an inflection point, we have good opportunities in all our jurisdictions. The next 2-3 years are about turning those opportunities into profits. That is what I hope AA is concentrating on.

Kistos is the one true 'dog' in my portfolio at present but I'm still confident that AA will turn that around. As he said "We built a profitable business and then the government came along and took away all the profits"

He will readjust.

BDEV +9%, GSK +4%, LGEN +6%, SHEL +11% SQZ -4%, KIST -29%

Diamondguru,

In my humble opinion there are benefits and drawbacks, I suspect Total insisted that we take our share of the SGP along with the producing assets.

The main benefit being that we are not paying a third party to process our gas via their infrastructure.

However, we also are now responsible for our share of decommissioning costs.

From the interims...

"In the UK, the Group's share of the estimated cost of plugging and abandoning the producing and suspended Laggan, Tormore, Edradour and Glenlivet wells, removal of the associated subsea infrastructure, and demolition of the SGP and restoration of the land upon which the plant is constructed."

I don't know what the costs are for the UK, but for all of our assets the abandonment provision currently stands at 198m euros.

aimo dyor etc etc

Diamondguru,

They are included.....

The Norwegian assets of MIME are the Balder area.

Production in October rose again to 9.6k boepd (September 8.5k boepd)

Production split equally across our jurisdictions and a gas/oil split of roughly 60/40.

GLA

Edradour and Tormore offline.

20% Net production from Glenlivet and Laggan = 3378 of gas and 147 b/d of oil.

Balder

10% Net production = 3030 barrels per day of oil

Q10-A

60% Net production = 3064 boepd

This 170p - 175p range has been too tempting for me to resist, I have doubled my investment but still average £2.24 per share.

The investment case here has soured somewhat since my first buys.

Negatives

1. GLA and Q10-A seem to have a higher rate of natural decline than I anticipated.

2. Capex spend for Balder X has increased by $38m and rumours persist of further delays

3. FID on the Orion oil field has been postponed, production is not expected until late 2025 or early 2026 compared to the 2024 production planned start up.

4. FID on the Glendronach has been postponed, the company plans to launch Edradour West first.

5. Benriach.

6. Abandonment costs of ~193m euros.

Positives.

1. Production in September at Balder was the highest it has been since 2019.

2. Var energi's Q3 results reiterated start up of the Jotun FPSO is still on target for Q3 2024.

3. Management have skin in the game ~20%

4. Management history of allocating capital successfully.

I may have to wait until late 2025, but I'm reasonably certain £2.26 will seem cheap by then.

aimo

Glad to get those dutch bonds off our backs, 9% in cash year on year was quite a drain.

Agreed on returns, I think one of the covenants prevented dividends being paid.

The NL2 bonds were split into two tranches. One of €90 million, which had a coupon of 8.75% per annum and a maturity date of November 2024 and one of €60 million, which had a coupon of 9.15% and a maturity date of May 2026.

We still have the $225m MIME bonds which are mainly PIK.

o US$120MM of Super Senior bonds, which will attract interest of 9.75% per annum, 4.50% of which is payable in cash and 5.25% of which is payable-in-kind in the form of additional Super Senior bonds. The maturity date of the Super Senior bonds is 17 September 2026.

o US$105MM of so-called "MIME02" bonds, which will attract an interest rate of 10.25% payable-in-kind. The maturity date of the MIME02 bonds is 10 November 2027.

aimo

I would hope we can achieve 50k boepd in 2024.

We did 49k boepd in the first half of 2023 and with no major shutdown of Bruce until 2025 I'll be disappointed if we don't.

The other thing that is out of our control but nonetheless very important to us is the approval of the Buchan FDP.

As far as I know it hasn't been submitted yet but it is hoped it will be approved in the second half of 2024.

We need Rishi to hang on to the death and go for an election next December..... a spring election could spell disaster if Keith and his comrades take the reins.

aimo

That's more like it!

Production in the Netherlands more than quadrupled and in Norway it more than trebled to give us a net figure of 8.5k barrels per day, up from 5.3k in August.

At GLA, Tormore and Edradour were not producing but production at Glenlivet and Laggan was pretty much the same as August.

GLA (Production figures to 15/9/2023)

Glenlivet 9624 boepd gas, 287 b/d oil. Laggan 7710 boepd gas, 367 b/d oil

Total gas 17,334 boepd. 20% Net to us = 3467 boepd

Total oil 654 b/d. 20% Net to us = 131 b/d

Norway (Balder)

Total oil produced 844,481 barrels = 27,241 b/d. 10% Net to us = 2724 b/d.

Netherlands (Q10-A)

Total gas produced 115,682 boe = 3731 boepd. 60% Net to us = 2239 boepd.

Total Net Gas = 5706 boepd

Total Net Oil = 2855 b/d.

aimo.

Production at Balder is back online at an elevated level on previous quarters at 19,200 boepd with another 1000 boepd coming from Ringhorne Ost. This follows completion of the HAP (high-activity period) maintenance schedule. The HAP lasted from May to September and included key upgrades and maintenance associated with the Balder FPU1 life extension. The production increase in the Balder area was mainly due to the start-up of a new well drilled from the Ringhorne platform which is performing better than expected. The planned turnaround, high-activity period (HAP) and riser replacement on Balder were all successfully completed within plan and budget during the quarter. The production efficiency for Balder/Ringhorne was 79% in the third quarter, down from 83% in the previous quarter due to the two-week planned turnaround in August.

On Balder X they say that "Current focus is on executing the remaining construction work and commissioning. Drilling and subsea activities are progressing according to schedule and the Jotun FPSO is more than 85% complete. The Balder X targeted start-up is maintained in the third quarter 2024..."

All in all a very positive news update for us.

aimo dyor

https://varenergi.no/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Var-Energi-ASA-Third-quarter-2023.pdf

Total net production for August came in at 5275 barrels per day, down from 7562 barrels per day in July.

The split is 4157 boepd of gas and 1118 barrels per day of oil.

Netherlands: 4.346.004Nm3 in total for the month or 26,278 boe. That's 848 boepd. 60% net to Kistos = 509 boepd.

Norway: 0.047377Sm3 in total for the month or 297,992 barrels of oil. That's 9613 barrels per day. 10% net to Kistos = 961 barrels per day.

UK: 102.9mmscf/d of gas and 785 barrels per day of oil. 20% net to Kistos = 3648 boepd of gas and 157 barrels per day of oil.

We are running on fumes.... aimo dyor

No Probs Newbie999, glad I could help.

1405p to buy? What the hell was that all about?

Investors expecting a raised dividend?

I added to my holding as the drip drip effect of all the positive news of late will surely have an effect in the long term.

Debt mountain and Zantac remain negatives but can be overcome in the medium term.

One for the SIPP

Newbie999,

For Norway https://factpages.npd.no/en/field/pageview/all/43562#

For Netherlands https://www.nlog.nl/datacenter/prodfigures/fields

For UK https://opendata-nstauthority.hub.arcgis.com/datasets/NSTAUTHORITY::-nsta-field-production-pprs-wgs84/explore?filters=eyJGSUVMRE5BTUUiOlsiVE9STU9SRSIsIkVEUkFET1VSIiwiR0xFTkxJVkVUIiwiTEFHR0FOIl0sIkdBU1BJUFZPTE0iOlswLDQ1OC42NjAxODUzXSwiUEVSSU9EWVIiOlsiMjAyMiJdfQ%3D%3D&location=57.248861%2C-0.916036%2C6.54&style=FIELDNAME

Still waiting on the UK production figures but the numbers for Norway and the Netherlands are down markedly.

Net production from Norway = 961bbls/day.

Net production from the Netherlands = 509boepd.

...and don't forget there's the interim dividend to pay before the year end...

389m shares at 9p per share is another£35m to be paid out of our cash.

As I said PH are probably not too far off imo

aimo dyor