Member Info for Nobull

"no legal obligation for anyone to declare their holdings....." Total boll*cks.
The Bermudian Companies Act is designed to be flexible so that any company whose shares trade under different listing authorities will not be burdened with multiple different disclosure requirements. The Bermudian authorities leave it to the listing authority, which in our case is the FCA because our depositary interests trade on the LSE.

That proactive investors article is from 2010. Daniel Stewart went into administration in Feb 2019. It is okay to be deluded. It is okay to be enthusiastic. It is not okay to try to pass on your shares for a higher price than you paid regardless of whether good or bad news affects our share price. You have repeated your link 3 times. That makes you an attention wh*re, only interested in getting higher click numbers on your twitter account.

"it's all in your [Surreyscot's] head, consumed in fantasy land, i have had to correct you so many times and when challenged you go AWOL and here we are yet again!!!"

I've had exactly the same experience with Surreyscot. Although his oil and gas knowledge is excellent, his cavalier attitude to the truth and propensity to make up stuff and to fail to reply when challenged, or indeed to apologise when shown to be wrong, to me means...

His pre-5 a.m. posts may indicate he is not in Surrey, but in Beirut, Bombay or Bangkok.

Calling his fellow longs "trolls" because they accept there is wide spectrum of outcomes possible here, not all of them positive, a reality that maybe disturbs his business model of simply passing on his shares to a bigger fool at a higher price than he paid, regardless of whether the GKP news flow is good or bad is maybe a sign of ... JMV.

The refusal to disassociate himself from the multi-avatar conspiracy theory peddler who can't keep an avatar longer than a week also doesn't say much.

Looking forward to the next ops update. An FY 2022 consensus forecast of 55.92p eps for a 2022 PE of 3.6 seems to provide scope for our shares to move up sharply on good news from the next ops update, although anyone with half a brain knows these ratios can normalise in ways other than the share price moving up.

TM, " since the last RNS said the connection was imminent. IMO it would only need an update if it hadn’t happened." Thanks for that.

"I see my post has been removed regarding my comments of one of Pauls many identities"

Rhena, I think other perfectly good posts besides yours were also removed simply because it was impossible to remove Xcrutiating's without removing all the posts in the same thread. I don't think it means LSE thought your post broke its posting guidelines. We are well rid of Xcrutiating's posts. Thank goodness there is a decent group of posters here who can call out the posts containing really bad misinformation.

On a different matter, it makes sense from the host country's perspective that we should be forced to extract oil from the most marginal parts of the field - the parts that are high cost to produce from - when oil prices are high if this maximises revenue for the host country. From our point of view, we just want the low hanging fruit first to get as much money out as quickly as possible, so I can see we might not be getting the easiest stuff out of our oil deposit right now as we have to do what the MNR wants, I wonder? So yes, I can see there might be a lot of value that doesn't really show up in CPRs if we only have P2 reserve numbers that relate to the less good, more marginal horizons we are perhaps extracting from now.

No, I can't understand why our company can't release some news on SH-13. I'd have thought if they had been successful, they would be in breach of the listing rules to fail to disclose share price sensitive news. Maybe they need to see sustained flow rates over many days before they can confirm good news. Anyone got any ideas on this?

"Bertam Properties has continued to establish profitable developments, even during the recent challenging market conditions, and is expected to add substantial value to the 70 hectares it has purchased for development, with the Group reaping its share of the benefit."

I think that means the profit from privilege, from the grant of planning permission for a change of use in the land, from the stripping out of the economic rent, is still to come. I think that means the share of profits from associates in the next few years, in particular from 40% owned Bertam Properties, is going to be a lot higher than we have been accustomed to.

Arsenal, "I have spent lots of time in Penang over the last ten years" Well, you are very lucky. I was last there 41 years ago! Yes, the land ownership rules seem very discriminatory - Mdm Lim's Anglo-Eastern only holds Cenderung on a lease, I believe. It's their only Malaysia-based plantation. I presume we only held the Bertam land freehold because of our ownership pre-dating independence, not that the same sort of rackets don't go on here in the UK what with planning authorities only giving planning permission on green field sites in national parks to build a residential property only in very exceptional circumstances, never to developers, but sometimes to favoured locals. The land value uplift can be £150,000.

A local sheltered accommodation provider 'charity' got planning permission to build a home in a field occupied by grazing sheep, and the rents charged to the human residents reflected the value of the property and land AFTER it was built. I imagine the planning permission application was advanced by stating the residents would be offered low priced accommodation. How did the planning application succeed? It helped to have a royal cipher on the application. Charities are just as aggressive at growing their 'businesses' as real businesses, and getting a £1m uplift in the land value by buying agricultural land and changing it to residential use must have done wonders for the balance sheet of that 'charity'. I guess one shouldn't criticise the rules in Malaysia as similar, less overt practices probably go on here. I recall Judy Murray having a tennis court planning application turned down on the grounds the tennis courts, which were in the back of beyond in Scotland somewhere, would cause too much light pollution - I wonder if the Planning Committee was jealous at the amount of money she was going to make from floodlit tennis courts in use 24/7? Planning authorities don't like giving away risk free profits, do they? The Town and Country Planning Act of 1947 was the biggest theft by a UK Government ever, I wonder?

CCC, hi. Shocking as it may sound, I don't have a target, and I don't have a choice in the matter until I've got probate. Have now got most of the valuation figures I need, so I can now start to compute the IHT payable. After that it will be a further 2 months before I can do anything, if I want to do anything.

The next step from 55k bopd to 75k bopd feels like a fairly risky step if we are to finance it ourselves, and the capex requirement can be manipulated by you know who, to create a cost blow out that could dilute the hell out of us longs, and the uncertainty of the success or otherwise of the project could mean a significant retrace in the share price, I wonder, until the project is complete - yes, a four or five year wait, by which time I'll be dead too.

I presume the cost recovery pool will not deplete completely if OPEX costs go into it, so in the worst case, I presume we would be getting 16% of oil sale proceeds + our opex back, the latter delayed, revenue that would suffer deductions for head office and listing costs, leaving us with a no eps growth stock, paying out modest dividends, if we decide not to go for 75k bopd and if oil prices remain at these levels.

I need to read Damodoran on Valuation, to complete the probate and IHT forms, do some calculations, and then I'll be able to have a more informed view - give me three months and then I'll be able to answer your question properly. ATB.

Arsenal58, yes but it makes a huge difference: scenario 1: we got the planning permission and then sold the land means we have already stripped out 100% of the economic rent, and it's already included in that $24m land sale figure, or scenario 2: our 40% owned property development property company gets the planning permission meaning we only get 40% of the economic rent stripped out and more importantly meaning the profit is still yet to materialise via some lumpy, futures "shares of associated company profits"

I doubt we would be allowed to keep 100% of the economic rent stripped out from a change of use in the land. So I believe we will only get 40% and that it is still to come simply because the Malaysian government has a policy to steer economic rents, profits from privilege, to Malaysian Malays, never to Malaysian Chinese or Malaysian Indians, so I can't imagine they would ever allow non-Malaysians to benefit 100%.

"Hopefully something is afoot."
Yes, eps of 80p a share for FY2021, I wonder? We are actually getting some CPO price upside over $1,300 without it being subject to export levy and export tax. And they are not slacking on future production volume growth: they are doing about 10,000 hectares of EXTENSION planting. That's just brilliant. I don't understand the significance of the property transaction - usually there is a mega economic rent to be stripped out when land changes from agricultural to residential use - I am not clear whether we sold the land with planning permission or without it. The one who gets the planning permission gets the economic rent, or the profit from privilege. Is it our 40% own property development company that gets the economic rent or was it us on sale of the land? Maybe we will get a special dividend, if the amount is large.

"Did they kill Paul off". No idea, but it will be good to have this thread back to discussing GKP; my only post for a while, made yesterday from a train, which didn't discuss GKP, was removed, but if it stopped the thread being spammed with posts intent on ...

I like to read a wide range of views, preferable ones that are credible, and I like to hear from people who trade the stock too, even though I don't. I remain long and look forward to the next production update.

"Can anyone explain the ex dividend process. I was expecting this price to drop to an ex dividend price today". The shares are supposed to drop by the amount of the dividend on the day they go ex-dividend, all other things be equal.

The exact size of the dividend was unknown yesterday as that maybe depended on the closing $/£ exchange rate yesterday. The share price did not drop the full amount of the estimated dividend size, probably because the oil price went up on Wednesday night in the U.S. and in the Far East on Thursday morning before London opened. A decent newspaper, e.g. the FT would probably show the effect of 10p share price drop when there is a 17p dividend involved as "up 7p" on the day.

Ex-div is a description of a product that is being traded, and the price quoted is for that product, so if you had bought on Wednesday, you were buying different product, GKP cum dividend. Yesterday, people were buying GKP ex-dividend. It is not normal to show CD on a contract note because that is the default. There may be some nutters who want to buy CD on the XD date, but they would have to do so by special negotiation with the market maker and would have to pay a higher price than everybody else who is buying the xd product. You don't need to be concerned with the mechanics of record dates - that's the broker's problem to make sure you get the dividend you are entitled to if you bought CD.

Putup, you won't get an answer from Surreyscot, unless it's a broad brush "you're talking all hot air" riposte. He has his back to the wall. Bigotry (negative outcomes are impossible to contemplate for these types of poster) and strong insults (mofo, slimy sods) are required to clear off the realist posters who discuss any alternative valuation framework to the "there's always a fool who will buy my shares off me at a higher price than I paid" method of valuation. They are attracted to stocks with high share price volatility, high trading volumes, chat boards with inexperienced investors, and stocks with no stamp duty payable on purchases. GKP ticks all the boxes. Thanks to all the posters who have contributed to a more nuanced understanding of GKP. "Another one binned" is a great example of a self-identifying bigot: they can't take on a an alternative valuation method: discounting uncertain future cash flows annoys them. JMV.

"To qualify for a dividend, you will need to purchase the share at least two days before the ex-dividend date"

No. If you buy the day before the stock goes xd, you are by default buying a different product, the stock cum dividend. The fact that the broker may not get your name on the shareholders' register before the record date is irrelevant. You have bought the stock cum dividend so you get the dividend even if the company sent the dividend to the seller by mistake. Of course there may be a small delay in getting your dividend if it is sent to the wrong person, but the fact you bought cd even if it didn't say CD on the contract note (because that's the default) means you are entitled to the dividend. I have no idea how spread betting firms deal with these things, so they might be very different.

9.21% rise on the closing price of 189.6p, consisting of 1.4p rise, 8.2p rise and your 7.857p rise this morning. Your figures sound right.

Yes, you are correct. Except the oil price is up overnight.

"It surely is.... Unless one listens to the scum that prowl the board in an attempt to suppress anything positive.... Same slimy sods..."

Thus spoke a frustrated bigot trying to make the business model “there’s always another fool willing to buy my shares at a higher price if I only allow positive posters to post” work. One can’t expect a nuanced understanding of the meaning of "speculative risk rating" from an ox head can one?

It’s no wonder our chairman thinks we can be palmed off with “the buybacks were value-accretive” nonsense. Speculative means our shares go up and down more than most, and mercifully they are in a up-trend for now. Long may it continue. Fingers crossed for 55k bopd.

"talking bo-ll-ox day-in day-out" A frustrated market manipulator looking for abnormal returns. No use asking which Swiss finishing school you went to.

"SS... Indeed, and they keep talking to each other as if they have some sort of consequence... Laughable, it really is.." Attacking people and not the arguments, which is to be expected if your MO is to create plausible reasons for a bigger fool to buy your shares for more than you paid for them. Rational, risk-averse investors consider the cash flow stream and the risks attached to it, not whether they can scam somebody fruitfully.

A takeover can still happen on a low probability. It is still possible, but it's better to get excited about more probable events, and if a takeover happens because one has invested for the growing production profile, well, that's great.