Member Info for Nobull

Thanks Putup. Agreed I have confused cash receipts with revenue, which makes a nonsense of the rest of my post. No need to speak to the company - the revenue recognition policy will be in the accounts - yes, it is likely the arrears receipts reduce the receivables. I have further work to do on understanding whether the share price has embedded zero for the value of the profit oil stream, as you say, and if so, why. CC's post about the risk of a forced sale is probably relevant, or worse, being treated like Genel over Miran and Bina Bawi. Why should the market price in anything until the uncertainties over the FDP are resolved?

"I get average circa 45.2k bopd for Nov and Dec up to the RNS."

The rise in average Nov/to-date-in-Dec production figure from previous guidance for the full year then is maybe due to the jet pump solution on SH-10 and the better performance from the SH-11.

We only have to get an average 50k bopd gross to get the consensus analysts' FY2022 forecast revenue of £299.5m (I make it £303m, if oil is $75 for the whole year, if exchange rates remain constant, if R < 1, and if we collect the $36m arrears that will be outstanding after this week's September 2021 arrears payment of $4.9m is received).

The problem is FY2023, where there are no arrears to be received (assuming we are never reverting to 15 days in arrears payments instead of the current 2.75 months in arrears payment system), so revenue drops, and it also drops for another reason e.g. if one assumes for that year an R > 2, all on the same production volume, same oil price and same exchange rate. Were 2023 going to be an exact repeat of FY2022 revenue wise, I'd have a target share price of £4.67 (using a PE of 7 on consensus eps of 65.4p), but as 2023 isn't going to be like that, Charlie Sharpe's £2.95 price target sounds reasonable, although I do realise there are many things left of centre that can stop a price target being achieved, things I don’t understand – e.g. the effect of the FDP being rejected, if it is, or even of it being accepted. I don’t see how we can continue to work at all on Shaikan if the FDP is rejected, so there is maybe a lot at stake. JMV.

If 30% of Profit oil belongs to the contractors for September i.e. the R factor is below 1 (cumulative revenue < cumulative expenditure), then to get a net payment, including arrears, of $29.6m, I make the September production figure 42k bopd. I used an average Brent price of $74.489 for that month. Is that what everyone else gets?

For October, again using an R factor < 1, and using the production figure of 45,654 bopd in Friday’s ops update, and an average Brent price of $83.538, I get a total net payment (including an arrears payment of $7.6m) of $39.97m due. We’ll be lucky to get that before the end of January at this rate. On 31 12 21 then, the KRG will be owing us more money, but for the change in payment terms, than 'arrears' they owed us at the start of the year - their bargaining power has improved slightly at our expense, as ValueS has observed.

Titan
" it seems that a group of veiled naysayers are trying to take over this forum."
Theoryman and Putup were correct with their speculation that the 55k bopd was late. Theoryman's experience was highly relevant. As to trying to deny Theoryman the right to use oil and gas lingo, well that's just ...
As a part owner of the business, you have no right to tell me not to moan and groan, or indeed to move on.
All,
I don't think that
"$32.4 million of the original total net arrears balance of $73.3 million has now been recovered" is the achievement it is portrayed as; the receipt of only 10 payments this year, assuming the September oil payment is received shortly, to me means we have made little progress recovering what we are owed because two months of non payments is nearly as much as what the arrears were at the start of the year. I look forward to the new wells connecting up to the fracture system better in January.

Titan
"Language is a wonderful window into the mindset and in this case into that of an overtly negative belief which is being broadcast for the benefit of others...The similar inclusion of bit of oil industry -flavoured lingo and alleged knowledge..."

Why shouldn't someone share their experience of working on projects, and why shouldn't they use oil and gas lingo; don't you know we are an oil and gas company? You are beginning to sound like you only want rose tinted views posted here. I look forward to a positive ops update.

"IMHO investing in this company without a thorough understanding of the PSC and the CRP is extraordinarily foolish." Agreed. Thanks for your very full answer. I'd have been better off buying the oil than the shares, but that's now changing as the oil price levels off and excess cash is returned, however it is returned. Lesson learnt.

"When the CRP is 'normalised' the capex burden is mostly borne by the KRG with just a small portion borne by GKP and MOL (the foregone PO)."

Putup, thanks for that correction. I am surprised the company can't communicate all this in its presentations. All I remember of them are those huge capex figures required at each development stage. I feel I have been deliberately misled by our BoD in its communications (the presentations and annual reports) - especially that value-accretive bull**** from our Chairman on the buybacks. They don't do anything to get rid of the Ponzi scammers that attract idiot shareholders and they don't do nice worked examples in their presentations of how the profits are divided up between us and the KRG. Our BoD could do better.

Greenfish, yes that's true, but the operating leverage here is better than AEP's and MPE's, so a small change in revenue leads to an utterly mega change in EBITDA. You also have the same effect with the financial gearing: the utterly obnoxious levels of debt and prior ranking finance (the bloody prefs) mean that a small change in EBITDA causes an utterly massive change in eps attributable to the ords. No I don't like the debt and prefs, but I can't deny that in the current CPO price environment with spot CPO hovering above $1300, the level where those obnoxious export levies and export taxes cease to make further demands on the CPO price upside from then on, we are likely to report profitability that hasn't been seen for donkey's years (See my forecast of 8p eps attributable to the ords for FY2021 on the ADVFN threads - no, I am not confident in the method I used of assuming the same levels of gearing to forecast the EBITDA figure, but we will see if I am anywhere near close next May).
Even our chairman acknowledges we are entering a period of prosperity. Yes, he is careful not to say how long it will last (he is a cautious person, right?).
Sure leverage works both ways, so volatile share price movements are to be expected, I wonder?
BTW, when comparing our historic miserable profitability levels with AEP and MPE, you have to remember that they DO NOT CHARGE FOR THEIR EQUITY CAPITAL. We being more debt financed do charge for our finance. Arguably, their profits are overstated compared with ours. Look at our 5.5 cpo tonnes per mature hectare - they get less. Agriculturally speaking, we are a good company. MPE and AEP have lower risk ratings than we do, but as ever you have to choose the risk level you can best tolerate. ATB. P.S. Don't forget we have had about $50m to $60m of dud assets on the balance sheet (coal and stone interests), and these are probably now going to make a contribution, something they haven't done for donkey's years. REA has about $500m of total assets from memory, of which only a tiny proportion is financed by ords shareholder funds. Imagine if all that debt finance is paid off from cash generated by operations before working capital movements are taken into account, and we would surely have an 8 bagger here. AIMO. DYOR.

They are accumulating too much cash to just sit back and do nothing." But we will need $500m, at least, for the next stage to 75k bopd and the cash flows are expected to drop off in 2023 even if exchange rates and oil prices remain constant. Sure, we can borrow, but that's risky with the way payments from the MNR are often delayed. I think we are forced to carry excessive amounts of cash just because of the way the MNR treats us.

As I understand it, we are producing whatever the last guidance was, and if the company is in possession of info that that has changed, it has an obligation to tell us immediately (Article 17 on disclosure of inside information has probably been incorporated into UK law since Brexit) and article 17 on Market Abuse Regulations says:

Public disclosure of inside information

" An issuer [of securities, like GKP] shall inform the public as soon as possible of inside information which directly concerns that issuer.

The issuer shall ensure that the inside information is made public in a manner which enables fast access and complete, correct and timely assessment of the information by the public and, where applicable..."

Yes, TM, I shall not post here any reply from elsewhere that claims current production differs from previous guidance! I think you asked the question very well.

TM, I have posted your question on the other board. I don't think it can be answered because it is share price sensitive info that is not in the public domain. ATB.

minus 50 is probably for the arrears payment calculation?

"Arrears now down to a trivial 14p per share ". Yes, but what about the increase in the delay in payment from half a month to 2.5 months? Wiping out one lot of arrears by a new different type of arrears?

"We need to have new investors... not just all knowing lot that dominate the discussion."
A plea for plebs to proclaim themselves? I do not want to read conspiracy nonsense (secret auctions, undeclared concert parties because of the Bermudian Company Acts, oxymorons like leveraged recapitalisations to concentrate profits prior to a bid), or forecasts that disrespect probability. What's wrong with that?

except our BoD hasn't toldbus how sale of the coal interests is going = except our BoD hasn't told us how sale of the coal interests is going

He needs he ords = He needs the ords

The strike price is £1.26p, so I don't think he'll be exercising them anytime soon. I am not even sure they are listed, so finding a buyer may be tricky. He needs he ords to go over £1.335(?) to break even on the warrants once the time value is lost, if he can't find a buyer for them before the time value in them is exhausted.

As cpo futures prices today reversed a good deal of yesterday's falls, and given we are likely getting about $890 a tonne ex-mill gate (excluding any premium for sustainably produced) I am not sure today's share price fall is really justified, except our BoD hasn't toldbus how sale of the coal interests is going and whether they have started stone production or not. I think the current ord market cap is justified on the basis of reasonable expectations that the $ loan note can be repaid next year if they can get by without a mega capital expenditure programme, but WDIK? We'll see. AIMO. DYOR.

Surreyscot, posting an 11 day old article about higher oil prices, one that has been superseded by events, in no way restores your reputation. Applauding Indridcold's actions and answering CCC's post would help. JMV.

Putup, my GKP 'shares' are in a nominee account so I haven't had sight of the certificate, but it makes sense not to be sending documents back and forth to Hamilton Bermuda, so it is likely there is a register of interests held here (a sort of virtual register?), and that the person who keeps this register here is shown as 100% owner of all the GKP shares in Hamilton, Bermuda, and that that register stays the same. The person keeping the register of interests in GKP shares here is likely to be a large reputable bank. I agree it appears that you are buying shares when you buy them on the stock exchange here, but it is very unlikely your name is shown as the owner on a share register in Bermuda. Why are our share shown as "DI" ? I think it is because they are not ords but depositary interests.

Putup, as I understand it, the Bermudian GKP share register remains largely the same, and what happens when you buy and sell 'GKP' is that a register held, probably in the UK by a trustee, changes, so what is actually changing hands for money is technically a depositary interest in one GKP share on the Bermudian share register, as evidenced by the changes in the trustees' register in the UK.