Member Info for Nick1234

I'm uncertain on next movements, but I'll be keeping an eye out to see if there is a decent entry price (I don't think we are there yet). I see Beazley as a better option out of the 2 businesses at the moment as it is likely to return to profit sooner.

As a business, Hiscox still a lot of work to do. It built a great reputation by providing first class service and adopting a positive approach to paying claims. Both of those have been shot over the last couple of years.

They could do with taking on some more underwriters and quickly settling the Covid claims which they are on for so they can move on. I also think some of the book still needs to be reunderwritten.

There's so much M&A activity in the insurance market at the moment, could Hiscox become a target?

Like the look of this company. Some real strong points such as:
Well known brand name in the insurance world.
All Insurers (including Beazley) are currently pushing through rate rises across most lines, but especially PI and Management Liability where Beazley are strong.
Strong relationships with large brokers such as Aon.
Not afraid to exit certain lines e.g. loss making regional UK marine book.
Exposure to growing classes of insurance e.g. cyber, M&A etc.
2020 loss not as much as feared.
19% increase in GWP in 2020
Return of events in 2021 which will need insuring.
Wide margin of safety as still 30% below 2019 high.
Return of divi likely in the future.

People are taking money out of shares that have been lockdown winners (think B&M, AO, Boohoo etc) and putting them in to travel and hospitality for a quick win. Hopefully they'll return quickly and reinvest their profits.

It's absolutely flown through the 500s. Less than a month to go from 500p to 600p (20% increase). I'm holding for a bit longer. GLA

I would say a target price is quite difficult at the moment. Until we know if/when the 3 acquisitions will be landed and how much it will add to the bottom line it's hard to put a value on the company going forward.

Still, I think the recent sell-off has been over done, and I'm expecting a return to over 100p in the next few weeks once there's some news.

£35 by Easter, £38 by the end of summer, £45 this time next year.

Don't forget it went up 50% in 10 weeks. Bound to be some profit taking with those sorts of gains.

Personally I'm in it longterm, great share. Secure, big divi and capital growth. Still looks cheap to me.

Deutsche Bank raised STAN to buy on Monday. Target price 560p.

Great buy opportunity IMO. 10% below the recent high and 35% below the Dec. 2019 high. The Far East economy recovered well in 2020 and continues to grow. News on the divi returning should be any time now.

DYOR.

I think 600p is a stretch, but 550p is definitely achievable.

There are 2 areas of concern for me:
1. The directors (the Arora Brothers) selling a large chunk of shares. Is this because they think it's as good as it will get or are they just taking a quick profit now? condidering they have earnt £100m through the special divi in the last year they weren't short of a bob or two. If they sold more it would upset the market and knock the share price.
2. Will the company be able to replicate the stunning growth in the new financial year starting 1 March? The boost that lockdown gave the company is perceived by many to be a bit of a one off. Will shopping habits be more normalised in the new financial year?

I'm holding for now, mainly in the hope/expectation of another special divi at year end. After that, who knows.

I think the BoD have done a great job over the last year to successfully navigate the company through the covid storm. The return of the dividend is great news, and it's likely that interest rates will stay ultra low for a while now.

The short/medium term for the share price now depends on government decisions around the stamp duty holiday and the help to buy scheme. Given how important the housing market is to the UK economy and how it seems to be the backbone of the Tory economic plan, I'm quietly confident they won't let both of these stimulants drop off a cliff in a few months time. An extension to both would provide another nice boost to the SP.

But surely once all the elderly and vulnerable are vaccinated, and with deaths outside of those groups being very rare, there won't be any one dying. I accept there will be a time lag of a few weeks after these groups are vaccinated for this to happen. Mutations are the great unknown, and it's still entirely plausible for this government to mess up the vaccine roll out like they have messed up everything else during the pandemic (although to be fair this has been done extremely well so far).

I expect that some sort of restrictions will remain on restaurants for a while based on the tier system i.e. no serving alcohol unless it is with a 'substantial' meal, only serving to members of the same household in tier 3 etc.

Going off the current government stats, 70% of the UK population should be vaccinated by May and all over 18s offered a vaccine by September. As the virus is relatively harmless outside of the elderly and vulnerable, there can surely be no justification for further lockdowns after March.

I expect there will be a huge pent up demand for the 2nd Half of 2021 with staycations being very popular as international travel remains troublesome. Whitbread should benefit hugely. Profitable business travel will take longer to recover however.

US stock markets would rise and Global markets including the FTSE would follow.

Because the FTSE 100 has dropped 1.5% today and doubts over the US stimulus package going through. L&G and other large holders of shares and assets would be huge beneficiaries of the stimulus measures.

Shouldn't do. L&G don't write general insurance for businesses.

I'd take anything from the Motley Fool with a pinch of salt. Surprised they aren't writing about British American Tobacco for 100,000th time.

It's gone up 26% in 3 weeks. A 2.3% drop isn't a major concern.

Q3 trading update on Thursday 7th Jan. Full year results are released on 26th May 2021.

BME has done very well out of the lockdowns (although there is a lot more to the business than that) so not surprised to see some nice movements today.

I'm optimistic that they will meet their previous forecast for number of completions (between 14,000 and 15,000). I'm also hoping for good news on the divi.

Unfortunately, the new lockdown and wider economic gloom are likely to overshadow any good news from the update.

Am I right in think construction sites are still OK to open under the latest lockdown rules?