RE: Billionaire Ashley Sees Online Upside in Asos16 Jun 2023 09:08
Hi DC2007
This is exactly what I thought yesterday as well and ran back to the 16 June 2022 trading update but didnt have an absolute value then. But I worked my way backwards from the results and trading updates of 2021-2022 and have reached the reasonbale conclusion that P3 in the FY22 was probably around neutral or maybe just in the positive:
- Final results announcement Oct 2021: their outlook for FY22 was adjusted PBT of 110-140mil
- Trading statement announcement January 2022: their outlook for FY22 remained the same for aPBT 110-140mil (they didnt give a value on what aPBT was in the first 4 months of FY22)
- Interim results announcement April 2022: they announced only aPBT 14.8mil for the first 6 months of FY22 and SURPRISINGLY maintained the FY22 outlook of 110-140mil. (This was after Russia invaded. I wonder if this was an early sign that the previous management was deluded and incompetent; I missed this point at the time; but nonetheless for them to re-iterate guidance, means that trading in March 2022 must have been descent)
- Trading statement June 2022 (this is the equivalent P3 statement from last year): again no absolute aPBT, but they came to their senses and updated outlook to aPBT 20-60. So trading in April-May 2022 must have taken a hit
- Final results announcement Oct 2022: announced aPBT of 22mil for the whole year. So in the months Feb-Aug 2022 the aPBT would have been 22-14.8 = 7.2mil. So some of this profit was perhaps in P3, simply because the squeeze on discretionary spending wasnt as tight, as mortgage rates and energy bills only started creeping up then
So in summary, I think the P3 2022 was probably slightly positive, which makes this year's P3 aPBT something around 20-25mil