RE: Costain27 Aug 2019 13:17
Metamorphosis84 / Auson
Agreed. At 250p this was logical asymmetric risk/reward scenario for shorts. A short placed now is late and just non sensical. Mathematically you would have better odds on a roulette table. The funds hold many short positions in many companies and so long as a few of those pay off, they can offset the losing shorts at a profit, but they must hold on to all of them to conclusion or the model fails. Currently, there is more government construction work to be done than there are firms who can take it on. Kier is safe. It will take a bit of time to fully right its self but a large, sudden spike North is highly probable. Following a KL sale, the shorts will start to quickly unwind in a practiced fashion. Anyone left here with a short position when that happens is going to be buying our stock back at an eye-watering premium. The memory of Carllion is exactly what is going to cause these people to lose their money here. its human nature. People expect what they have seen before to happen again. We should always observe history of course, but that means REALLY go back over longer time periods not just the last, most recent firms to go bust. In a situation like this, one must invest with their calculator, not their instinct. As a buy, this offers tremendous long term value with a limited downside if structured correctly. As a short, this offers more risk than potential reward at this sp. All IMHO DYOR