HL research note21 Oct 2015 00:56
Premier Inn is a great product; a clean comfortable room, in a good location at a sensible price. With over 60,000 rooms in the estate, it is the clear market leader in the UK branded budget hotel sector. Costa is omnipresent on UK High Streets and highways, with a rapidly growing overseas presence too. The restaurants business plays a supporting role to the hotels, but struggles to inspire in its own right.
The planned growth of the hotel and coffee estates gives excellent visibility of growth, much of which is independent of the economic cycle. Premier Inn has delivered consistently positive LFL sales growth in a variety of economic conditions, underscoring the strength of its proposition. Costa is busily slaking the nation's never ending thirst for caffeine; think of it as an investment play on the UK's long hours work culture. Both businesses have growth plans that envisage expansion of around 40-50% in their estates over a five year period.
The stock has retreated by around 10% since the spring, and now trades on circa 18.5x forward earnings, which is a little dearer than its longer run average of 16x. But there are not that many stocks out there offering double-digit organic sales growth. Premier Inn has been slow to gain traction overseas, but the UK estate's growth has more than compensated. The balance sheet is strong, with net debt expected to be circa 1.1x earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, so Whitbread looks capable of funding its growth, without recourse to shareholders.
The group is asset-rich, with a lot of hotel freeholds on the balance sheet, and it makes net margins, after tax, of around 15%. As we say, there really aren't that many stocks around which offer market leadership, a history of double digit organic growth, strong profit margins earned from a robust balance sheet and which trade on multiples not too far from their longer run average.
Key Details:
Hotels & Restaurants - revenues rose 9% to £927m, led by Premier Inn, which grew 13%, whilst Restaurants added 1% to their sales, which Whitbread claim is ahead of a dull wider market. Profits rose 11% and a return on capital of 13% was generated.
The group will invest around £600m this year, with around £130m of this being spent on refurbishment and improvements, the rest on growth. 84% of bookings now come in online. The hotels delivered 10.5% sales growth in the regions, whilst London saw 21% growth after a strong increase (21.5%) in available rooms.
The trial "hub by Premier Inn" property in St Martin's Lane is performing well, with occupancy of 95.6% and TripAdvisor ratings of 4.5, slightly ahead of the overall Premier Inn score of 4.3.
The German expansion progresses, with a first opening in Frankfurt expected in March 2016, with around two hotels a year expected for the next few years as the experiment is tested.
In Restaurants, 56 Beefeaters have had a refurb, for which we can all be gr