ATUK5 Sep 2011 15:46
CONT
The pre-launch marketing has resulted in more than 10 major school suppliers representing 20 major school brands being signed up. Moreover, there are currently 3,000 schools already on the @UK Ecommerce Marketplace, representing approximately 10% of the market. @UK’s post launch marketing programme is focused upon increasing the number of schools using the platform and extending beyond their major suppliers to the entire school supply base, which has been estimated at 300,000 suppliers.
Although @UK has made a good start to the launch of its Schools Ecommerce Marketplace, like New Enterprise Allowance platform It is too early to assess the group’s likely revenues and for now, we are not building any revenue potential into our current and next year forecasts. However, if @UK was even to achieve 10% of the potential, this would equate to additional recurring revenues of over £7 million per annum and an additional £5 million per annum in profit.
Nevertheless, as the interim results (see our note of 29th July 2011) demonstrated, @UK is on track to deliver our existing expectations. We continue to believe that it is not unreasonable to value the company on demanding 2012 EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA multiples of 5 times and 20 times respectively because of the company’s current stage of development and expanding market opportunities. Our confidence is further supported by the quality of the group’s established business relationships (e.g., Barclaycard Commercial, Google, NHS Shared Business Services, etc.) as well as the considerable international interest generated by the on-time and in budget delivery of the flagship e-commerce B2B purchasing card GeM platform for UK universities. Therefore, with the shares trading at 9.625p and a 30p target price based upon our probably conservative 2012 expectations, we re-iterate our recommendation of buy.